Mid-week market update: Rather than the usual mid-week market technical comment, I thought that I would present updates on a number of trades that I had suggested in the past: How to play the Brexit referendum (published February 29, 2016): Setting up for a trade? A possible generational low in oil and energy stocks (published January 20, 2016):...
I've been meaning to write on this topic but I hadn't gotten around to it. For several weeks, I have seen warnings about deteriorating earnings quality. The gap between corporate earnings as defined by Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and operating earnings (earnings without the special bad stuff) has been widening to levels not seen...
Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...
Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...
Mid-week update: I thought that I would write my mid-week update a day early, because of the binary outcome of the FOMC meeting. This meeting could turn out to be a critical turning point for the short and medium term tone of the markets. It`s becoming fairly clear that the Fed is unlikely to raise...
Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...
Let me preface my remarks with two caveats. Firstly, I am politically agnostic and I don`t have a horse in the latest race for the American presidency. As a Canadian, I can`t vote in a US election. As well, it might be considered foolhardy to project what a politician might do based on his campaign...
Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...
Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...
Regular readers recognize that my inner investor is bullish on stocks, though my inner trader remains a little leery and expects further market choppiness (see Profit by thinking like Big Money). Despite my longer term bullishness, I tweeted this morning that I had tactically taken a small, underline the word "small", short position in SPX...
Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...
In theory, stock prices should be poised to rally. The SPX is testing a key support zone dating back to October 2014 and it is experiencing positive divergences on the 5 and 14 day RSI. If it did bottom here, the initial target would be the first Fibonacci retracement level at about 1935, with further...
During periods of market turmoil like the one we are experiencing, it's important to keep your eye on the ball and not to get overly distracted. If I had to just had to watch just one thing, it would be how forward 12-month EPS are evolving. That's because Ed Yardeni found that forward EPS is highly...
Model signal summary Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities Trend Model signal: Risk-off Trading model: Bearish (downgrade) The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based...
Model signal summary Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities Trend Model signal: Risk-off Trading model: Bullish The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on...
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Risk-off Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My...
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Risk-off Trading model: Bullish (upgrade) The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"...
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Risk-off (downgrade) Trading model: Bearish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"...
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Neutral Trading model: Bearish (downgrade) The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"...
As 2015 draws to a close, this would be a good time to review how I did during the year. As regular readers know, I have two personas, my inner investor and my inner trader. My inner investor had a decent year, while my inner trader had a year that he would rather forget. ...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
