Happy New Year! Investors were happy to see the tumultuous 2020 come to a close. The past year has been one with little precedent. A pandemic brought the global economy to a screeching halt. The stock market crashed, and it was followed by an unprecedented level of fiscal and monetary response from authorities around the...
As the clock ticks down on Trump's days in the White House, and Biden election has been confirmed by the Electoral College, it's time to ask if a Biden Administration will reset the Sino-American relationship. The key questions to ask are: What does each side want, and what are the sources of friction? What constraints...
Two weeks ago, I rhetorically asked if investors should be buying into the cyclical recovery theme (see Buy the cyclical and reflation trade?). Global green shoots of recovery were appearing, but I identified the "uncertainty of additional fiscal stimulus" as a key risk to the cyclical rebound thesis. Now that Biden appears to be winning...
I am not in the habit of peddling conspiracy theories, but this is inadvertently becoming a Halloween tradition. Last Halloween, I wrote about how China could control Taiwan without firing a shot (see Scary Halloween story: How a weak USD could hand China a major victory). This year, a new geopolitical tail-risk is materializing for investors...
When a stock market shifts from a bull to a bear market, leadership usually changes. Bear markets are often periods of catharsis. The old leaders get tired, and they have been bid up to excessive valuations. A reality check sets in and they fall. As the old leaders fail, new market leaders emerge to guide...
The Buttonwood column in The Economist had this to say about the recovery in metal prices (before the most recent risk-off episode): A pattern in markets is that a lot happens by rote. China’s response to a weak economy is to build; investors’ response to the Fed’s easing is to buy stocks; the algorithms’ response...
Remember the Great Financial Crisis (GFC)? As the GFC engulfed the global economy, China stepped up with a shock-and-awe campaign of fiscal and monetary stimulus that stabilized not only the Chinese economy, but global growth. Can China save global growth again? China recently reported surprisingly strong export growth for April, but the closely watched early...
The data points closely watched this past weekend were the releases of China's Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) readings. On Saturday, China reported that its February manufacturing PMI had missed expectations and skidded to 35.7, and services PMI also missed and printed at 29.6. Both readings were all-time lows. The Caixin private sector PMI...
The covid-19 coronavirus outbreak is a human tragedy, just like Ebola, MERS, and SARS. For investors, it has an economic impact. Even before the outbreak, world merchandise trade volume had been falling. New data is likely to show that the outbreak disrupted global supply chains sufficiently to further depress global trade. The market consensus initially...
The enemy advances, we retreat In the wake of the news of the coronavirus infection, the Chinese leadership went into overdrive and made it a Draghi-like "whatever it takes" moment to prevent panic and stabilize markets. When the stock markets opened after the Lunar New Year break, the authorities prohibited short sales, directed large shareholders...
What should investors make of the market's recent air pocket and subsequent recovery? John Autthers, writing at Bloomberg, proposed an analytical framework where investors view the coronavirus outbreak mainly as a China problem. The MSCI World with China exposure (blue line) has been far more volatile than the MSCI World Index (white line). The companies...
Mid-week market update: Bloomberg reported that BAML strategist Michael Harnett wrote a report back on December 12 forecasting a melt-up. He believed the market's gains would be front loaded in 2020. and he projected an S&P 500 target of 3,333 by March 3. The index reached that level intra-day today, and it's still January. Are...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
In response to my last post (see Buy signal confirmed: It's a global bull), I received an email yesterday from a long-time reader who observed that I was channeling the perennially bullish Chris Ciovacco. While my post yesterday highlighted the monthly MACD buy signal on global stocks, Ciovacco's latest weekly video referenced the monthly MACD buy...
On Friday, Trump said that a trade deal with China was "potentially very close" (via CNBC): President Donald Trump on Friday said that a long-negotiated trade deal with China is “potentially very close” following reports that an agreement might not be reached until next year. Trump was speaking on one of his favorite television programs,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
I have written before how a strong USD can be a negative for global financial stability. There are many EM borrowers who have borrowed in the offshore USD market, and a rising USD puts a strain on their finances. In addition, FactSet reported that companies with foreign domestic exposure have exhibited worse sales growth than...
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