The market risk hiding in plain sight

As the infrastructure and budget bills make their way through Congress, I was surprised to see that the latest BoA Global Fund Manager Survey did not mention a corporate tax increase as a key risk to the S&P 500.      The Biden tax proposals have been well telegraphed and most of the details have...

Prepare for a growth stock correction

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Constructive value and reflation green shoots

One of my principal tools of market analysis is the use of trend-following techniques to spot changes in macro conditions. My models are seeing some early green shoots in the value and reflation trade. It began with the stronger than expected July Jobs Report. The subsequent tame core CPI print also helped to reinforce the...

Seven reasons to fade the growth scare

It is astonishing to see the market narrative shift in the space of only a few months from "inflation is coming" to a growth scare. In late March, the 10-year Treasury yield topped at over 1.7% and the 2s10s yield curve was steepening. Today, the 10-year has decisively broken support and the yield curve is...

How to navigate the mid-cycle expansion

It's been over a year since the stock market bottom at the height of the Pandemic Panic. The market consensus has evolved from an early cycle recovery to a mid-cycle expansion, as evidenced by the BoA Global Fund Manager Survey.     What that means for investors? Here are the key questions we focus on:...

The bond market tempts FAIT

Remember when I called for a bond market rally (see What a bond market rally could mean for your investments). The 10-year Treasury yield broke support last week and shrugged off a hot CPI print. Is the bond market tempting FAIT, or the Fed's Flexible Average Inflation Targeting framework?     Here are some of...

What a bond market rally could mean for your investments

The trader Alex Barrow recently observed that the sentiment backdrop is setting up for a bond market rally.     While Barron's is not as reliable as The Economist as a contrarian magazine cover indicator, the stars appear to be lining up for a counter-trend rally in bond prices. Here is what a potential bond...

A pause in the reflation trade?

Recently, a growing narrative in the market is arguing for a pause in the reflation trade for the following reasons:   Both the cyclically sensitive copper/gold and base metal/gold ratios have moved sideways. The 10-year Treasury yield peaked out in March and it is now falling, which is an indication of the bond market's belief...

A change in leadership?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset...

Has the reflation trade become too crowded?

In light of last week's partial NASDAQ reversal, I had a number of discussions with readers about whether the reflation trade has become overly consensus and crowded. To be sure, bond prices have become wildly oversold while the cyclically sensitive copper/gold ratio has surged upward and appears extended.     Is the reflation trade, which...

There are no more bulls and bears, here’s why

Mid-week market update: If you hadn't known that it was FOMC day, you would have looked at the closing market diary and shrugged. The S&P 500 closed only +0.3% on the day. Beneath the surface, however, a lot has been going on in the past few weeks.   Analysts who try to call the direction...

Here comes the recovery

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.  ...

60/40 resilience in an inflation age

The fiscal and monetary authorities of the developed world are engaged in a great macroeconomic experiment. Governments are spending enormous sums to combat the recessionary effects of the pandemic and central banks are allowing monetary policy to stay loose in order to accommodate the fiscal stimulus. Eventually, inflation and inflation expectations are bound to rise....

Tech’s kryptonite, revealed

In his latest letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren Buffett reported that even Berkshire's largest publicly listed holding is asset-light Apple, and Berkshire is a very asset-heavy company. Its two major holdings are railroad BNSF and electric utility BNE, which has a large capital project to upgrade the electrical transmission grid in the western US,...

Are you positioned for the post Great Rotation era?

Is the US stock market in a bubble? Yes and no, according to Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates. Using a proprietary technique to create a "bubble indicator", Dalio concluded that "the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today", compared to a 100th percentile reading in 1929 and 2000.     Dalio qualified his...

MoMo is losing its mojo

Mid-week market update: About a month ago, I warned that the market was undergoing a regime shift from growth to value (see What would Bob Farrell say?) and compared today's Big Tech momentum stocks, not to the dot-com mania, but the Nifty Fifty era. On the weekend, I rhetorically asked in a tweet that if...

Value picks and pans

I recently made a presentation at a virtual conference, and an audience member asked me to name some of my favorite value sectors. I had a few answers, but let me start with what I would avoid, namely financial stocks.     Financial stocks are statistically cheap and comprise a significant weight in most value...

Still testing triple-top resistance

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.  ...