Watch what they do, not just what they say

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset ...
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Why the S&P 500 won’t get to 2400 (in this rally)

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: As the major market averages make new all-time highs, I conducted an informal and unscientific Twitter poll. I was surprised to see how bullish respondents were.     Let’s just cut to the chase – forget it. Neither the fundamental nor the technical backdrop is ready for an advance of that magnitude. Even though the earnings and …

Peak populism?

In Free by Cam Hui

Technical analysts often use the magazine cover indicator as a contrarian indicator. When an idea has become so commonplace that it becomes the cover of a major magazine, the public is all-in and it’s time to sell. The Economist reported on an ad hoc study by Greg Marks and Brent Donnelly at Citigroup using covers from The Economist and did …

A focus on growth

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

The ways your trading model could lead you astray

In Free by Cam Hui

I have had a number of discussions with subscribers asking for more “how to” posts (see Teaching my readers how to fish). This will be one of a series of occasional posts on how to build a robust investment process. For traders and investors, one of the challenges is how to build a robust discipline that works well through different …

Main Street bulls vs. Washington bears

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

How Trump/Navarro could spark a market crash

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

The cloudy side of Trump

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

A correction on the horizon?

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: It’s always nice to take a few days off during the holidays, except all that I got for Christmas was a cold. The stock market doesn’t seem to be doing too much better as it tests the bottom of a narrow trading range during what should be a period of positive seasonality.     None of the other …

Santa Claus rally, or round number-itis?

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: As the Dow approaches the magic 20,000 mark, the question for traders is: Will Santa Claus be coming to town this year, or will the market advance stall as it catches “round number-itis”?     Here is what I am watching. Risk appetite Risk appetite metrics are mixed. Fixed income risk appetite, as measured by junk bond performance …

How Trumponomics could push the S&P 500 to 2500+

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Trump makes stocks great again (for now)

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

A glass half-empty

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: About two weeks ago, I wrote a post indicating that market had focused on the positives of a Trump presidency (see The Trump Presidency: A glass half-full?). Now it seems that market psychology is subtly shifting to a glass half-empty view. It is very revealing when the new nominees for the key commerce and treasury cabinet posts …

The start of a new Trump bull?

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Going on recession watch, but don’t panic!

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

The Trump presidency: A glass half-full

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Trading the Trump Tantrum

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: The stock market sold off today on no apparent fundamental or economic news. The most likely cause was the latest ABC/Washington Post tracking poll that showed that Trump had overtaken Clinton. The race had been tightening for several days, but this seemed to be the last straw for the markets, which threw a tantrum in response.   …

When does the Fed remove the punch bowl?

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

An sentimental embrace of risk

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: When traders refer to “institutions” in the context of sentiment analysis, often the impression is that institutions represent some monolithic entity. Nothing could be further from the truth. I tend to analyze institutional sentiment by segmenting them into four distinct groups, each with their own data sources: US institutions, whose sentiment can be measured by Barron’s semi-annual …

Three reasons why this isn’t 1987

In Free by Cam Hui

A scary analog has been floating around in the last few days. Citibank FX analyst Tom Fitzpatrick postulated that the current market looks an awful lot like 1987 (via Business Insider).   Murray Gunn at HSBC also issued a similar crash warning. Oh, puh-leez! I can think of at least three reasons why this isn’t 1987 (also recall The USD …