Mid-week market update: Instead of just focusing on the U.S. market, I offer these two mystery charts of EM markets. One is a contrarian play, the other a momentum play. Mystery charts revealed The top chart, the contrarian play, is MSCI China relative to MSCI All-Country World Index Ex-US. The latest BoA...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 became extremely stretched in mid-June when its 14-week RSI exceeded the 90 level. The last two times this happened, the market eventually pulled back and the initial decline was arrested with RSI reached a neutral reading of 50. That 50 target was reached this week, which I interpret as...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend that my monthly MACD model was “On the verge of a long-term buy signal”. The good news is the stock market rose enough on Monday, which was the last day of July, to eke out a buy signal condition. The bad news is the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend that Q2 earnings season is potentially pivotal for the stock market (see What to watch for in a pivotal earnings season). Going into reporting season, the consensus is calling for a rebound in earning, though the recovery is expected to be stronger in large and mid-caps compared...
Mid-week market update: Geopolitical risks are rising and it remains to be seen how the market reacts to geopolitical stress. On the weekend, I made the following tweet. Those fears are becoming more real. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated in a tweet, "Now we have information from our intelligence that the Russian military has placed...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Subscribers received an email alert last Friday that I had issued a tactical sell signal for the stock market. The VIX Index had fallen below its lower Bollinger Band, which is often a signal of a short-term top. Since then, the index has been trading sideways while the 5-day RSI slowly descended...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Have you ever seen any technician publish the short-term analysis of the stock market just before a key event with a binary outcome, such as an FOMC decision, NFP report, or CPI report? How much confidence would you place in such a forecast? As we await the outcome of the debt...
Mid-week market update: I am publishing this before the market close on Wednesday because I have an appointment just before the close so many of the charts won't have Wednesday's closing prices. The market structure continues to be bearish, and I continue to believe that the intermediate-term trend is down. Nevertheless, it's too obvious to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As the S&P 500 stalls at overhead resistance while exhibiting negative divergences, here are some reasons why you shouldn’t be overly bullish or bearish on U.S. equities. The Bear Case The bear case for stocks is based mainly on macro and fundamental conditions. A recession is on the horizon in H2 2023,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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