A time for tactical caution

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A modest correction ahead?

Mid-week market update: I pointed out on the weekend that it’s not unusual for the S&P 500 to consolidate sideways after reaching its upper Bollinger Band before the market makes its next major directional move. There have been five other similar instances in the last six months. What’s a little unusual about the current episode...

How to spot a market top

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A Trend Asset Allocation Model review

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

5 reasons you may have not have thought of to be bullish

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

What’s bothering the stock market?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Oversold enough for a bottom?

Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend that conditions were setting up for a panic bottom (see Here comes the sentiment flush), but one final flush may be necessary to spark a relief rally. The S&P 500 has now achieved the milestones for a panic bottom. The stochastic is sufficiently oversold. The index violated...

Here comes the sentiment flush

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

How serious is the market’s trend break?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

The stock market’s Q2 challenges

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Lucy and the correction football

Mid-week market update: Since January, I have been saying that the stock market is extended and could pull back at any time. The latest conditions shows that the S&P 500 is consolidating sideways after pulling back from above its upper Bollinger Band. The stochastic has recycled from overbought to neutral, which is a tactical sell...

It’s all about expectations

Mid-week market update: Four weeks ago, I published NVIDIA at the bat, in which I discussed the market expectations for leading AI stock NVIDIA ahead of its earnings report. NVIDIA came out with a strong report that exceeded Street expectations, and the stock reacted with a price gap the following day.     Fast forward...

Waiting for the recycle amidst an elevated tail-risk backdrop

Mid-week market update: Marketwatch recently highlighted analysis from NDR which concluded that sentiment was extended and while it may make sense to be cautious about adding risk, it's too early to turn tactically bearish until readings recycle from an overbought condition.     I agree. I've been saying the same thing for several weeks. A...

Doesn’t Fed policy matter to stocks anymore?

During Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to the Financial Services Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives, he said that it will likely be appropriate to begin cutting rates “at some point this year”. At the same time, he reiterated the message that other Fed officials sent to the markets that the Fed is not ready...

Mind the gaps

Mid-week market update: In the short run, how the market reacts after price gaps can be important clues to market psychology and direction. How quickly the market fills a gap is a measure of either strength or weakness.   As accompanying hourly chart of the S&P 500 shows, we have price gaps everywhere (upside gaps...

How to trade the YOLO and FOMO market

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

How extended is this market?

Mid-week market update: I have said before that the stock market is extended in its advance and it could pull back at any time. How extended? Here is another metric.   Bollinger Bands (BB) are overbought/oversold indicators. If a stock or index rises above its 2 standard deviation BB. it is said to be overbought....

Did the NVIDIA-fueled rally exhaust the bulls?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...