Has the market reached escape velocity?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

What the bull case looks like

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

The hidden schism in the BoA Fund Manager Survey

Mid-week market update: BoA published its monthly Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) this week and the results were not a big surprise. In the last few months, the FMS had increasingly become a price momentum indicator whose readings were fairly predictable based on recent market trends. Respondent risk appetite was turning up after bottoming out...

What to expect when you’re expecting (a recession)

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Sentiment whipsaws are masking the bear trend

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Time to jump on the year-end rally bandwagon?

Mid-week market update: The stock market surged last week in reaction to the soft CPI reading. It got better news this week when PPI came in lower than expected. As well, China unveiled a 16-point package to try and stabilize its cratering property market and softened some of its Zero COVID policies. Berkshire Hathaway unveiled...

The hidden story of investor capitulation

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Do the bulls have anything left in the tank for their charge?

Mid-week market update: It's always difficult to make tactical trading calls on FOMC meeting day. The S&P 500 approached the latest meeting with the 5-day RSI near overbought territory. The experience in 2022 of overbought or near overbought conditions on meeting days (March and July, n=2) has seen stock prices continue to advance. Can it...

Five constructive signs of a short-term bottom

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Liftoff?

Mid-week market update: Recent discussions with readers made me realize that many investors may have become so numb to the endless bearish stock market impulses that they don't realize how oversold the stock market is. I have highlighted in the past the chart of the NYSE McClellan Summation Index (NYSI) to demonstrate that a reading...

How bears turn into bulls

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Do divergences matter anymore?

Mid-week market update: The stock market has been exhibiting a series of positive breadth and momentum divergences as the S&P 500 weakened, but the recent main driver of risk appetite has been the fixed income and currency markets.   Do divergences matter anymore?     External drivers The divergences matter less inasmuch as the stocks...

Buy now, pain later

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Managing fear and greed in a time of volatility

Mid-week market update: I received a number of questions from readers who were positioned for the monster rally that began on Monday, "What's your upside target?"   The answer is, "It depends." Make no mistake, the market was washed out and oversold when the rally began, but it was sparked by a rebound in bond...

Seven reasons why traders should grit their teeth and buy

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

The right and wrong way to throw in the towel

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A pending major market bottom? It sounds too easy!

Is the universe unfolding as it should? Most technical and sentiment indicators argue for a near-term double bottom in the S&P 500. The June bottom was the initial capitulation bottom. The market rallied and it is poised to weaken and re-test the old lows in the near future. That's when the new bull begins.  ...

How to trade the failed breadth thrust

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Just a flesh wound, or a deeper cut?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...