Is the bounce over?

Mid-week market update: One of the concerns I had after last Friday’s market turnaround was that a bounce had become the consensus view. Virtually every technical analyst was calling for a bear market rally, followed by further weakness. It sounded too easy. Either the bounce was going to fail, or the market was going to...

A market bottom checklist update

Mid-week market update: For several weeks, sentiment surveys such as AAII and Investors Intelligence have signaled extreme levels of bearishness seen at past market bottoms. However, some observers have played down the sentiment surveys because indications of positioning are inconsistent with extreme fear. As an example, funds are still pouring into the Cathie Wood’s Ark...

Making sense of the H&S breakdown

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

FOMC reaction: I told you so

Mid-week market update: Happy Price Stability Day to you!   Ahead of the FOMC meeting, I had been pounding the table that market expectations were unrealistically hawkish. The market was discounting strong rate hikes well beyond the Fed’s stated median neutral rate of 2.4%, according to the March Summary of Economic Projections.     Combine...

Will the Fed rally or tank markets next week?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Sentiment: This time is different

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Cyclicals catch a bid, but…

Mid-week market update: Cyclical industries have caught a bid in the last week. That's not a big surprise as they have been badly clobbered relative to the market. Transportation stocks exhibited impressive strength as they regained relative support turned resistance level. However, the relative performance of all of the other industries was either below relative...

The canaries in a bifurcated coalmine

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Another Omen warning

Mid-week market update: In case you missed it, the market recently flashed a Hindenburg Omen last week. The criteria for the Omen was succinctly explained by David Keller as: The market is in an established uptrend; A sharp expansion in both new highs and new lows, indicating indecision; and A momentum break.     To...

Secrets of stable returns in a chaotic bear market

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A breather, or a stall?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Trading the relief rally

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Great (bearish) expectations

Mid-week market update: The bears have exhibited great expectations for risk assets. Ed Clissold of Ned Davis Research observed that the NDR Crowd Sentiment has been at a sub-30 reading, which is historically bullish. However, he pointed out that momentum is negative and hedged with "sentiment is extremes differ cycle to cycle, so it's best...

Beware the Ides of March

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Panicked enough for a relief rally?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

I’ll never complain about a lack of panic again

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Fearful, but not panicked

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Don’t forget about the intermediate-term trend

Mid-week market update: I wrote on Monday (see Everything but the kitchen sink) that market sentiment was overly stretched on the downside, "If you are short here, you need a catastrophe within the next 10 days, otherwise, you run the risk of a rip-your-face-off relief rally."   The relief rally appeared right on cue on...

Everything but the kitchen sink

I must admit, the bears are trying their best. They've thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the stock market: The prospect of a half-point rate hike, an inter-meeting hike, and the looming risk of an armed Russia-Ukraine conflict.     Despite all the bad news, the S&P 500 is holding above its January lows....