A correction in time?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The...

Another test of the 50 dma

Mid-week market update: As the S&P 500 revisits the area around its 50 dma, will the weakness persist or will it be halted? The index has found good support at the 50 dma all of this year. Equally constructive is the bull flag pattern being traced out by the S&P 500, though the index hasn’t...

A consolation prize for the bulls

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The...

No breadth thrust, but a slow grind-up

Mid-week market update: I recently highlighted the possible development of a rare momentum-based Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal (see The Zweig Breadth Thrust watch). The window for the ZBT buy signal closes tomorrow (Thursday). While the S&P 500 has been advancing slowly, we are unlikely to see the buy signal barring some gargantuan melt-up tomorrow....

The Zweig Breadth Thrust watch

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

The market endures a summer squall

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A fear of Delta?

Mid-week market update: Stock prices have taken a minor and uneven risk-off tone this week. The pullback has been attributable to fears over a Delta variant-related slowdown.    I beg to differ. Instead, the weakness can be better explained by market technical conditions. The 5-day correlation between the S&P 500 and VVIX, or the volatility...

Prepare for a growth stock correction

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Another chance to buy the panic

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A glass half full, or empty?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

High expectations for earnings season

Mid-week market update: As the market enters into Q2 earnings season, FactSet reported that consensus estimates are calling for an astounding 63.3% YoY EPS growth.     While that growth estimate appears to be a high bar, investors have to keep in mind the low base effect. As well, the historical record shows that actual...

Respect the uptrend

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

U-S-A! U-S-A! But for how long?

Mid-week market update: The US markets have surged recently relative to global equity markets, as measured by MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI). Developed markets (EAFE) and emerging markets (EM) have weakened on a relative basis.     How long can this last? The S&P 500 is testing an important resistance level that could lead to...

The resiliency of the S&P 500

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Measuring the effects of the Fed’s reversal

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Just a hiccup?

Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 has shown negative seasonality at the end of June. So far, the index has been tracking its historical pattern well in 2021. The market took fright last week from the abrupt hawkish tone of the FOMC statement and subsequent Powell press conference last week. By Friday, it had become...

Boo! Powell scares the children!

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A new S&P 500 high, but…

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Is the pullback over?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...