A continued grind upwards

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: I wrote last weekend that there was a possibility that the stock market may undergo a melt-up, followed by a crash (see Market melt-up and crash?). That scenario may well be occurring, and I sent out an email to subscribers on Monday stating that my trading account had moved from all-cash to being long stocks. There are ...
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Peak small cap tax cut euphoria?

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: The intermediate term technical trend remains bullish, it`s hard to argue with the strong momentum that the market has displayed. Ari Wald recently pointed out that the market is experiencing a “good overbought” condition (my words, not his) that has the potential to carry the market much higher.     However, the current market environment may be ...
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Is 3% for 6 months enough to take equity risk?

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset ...
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Nearing upside target, what now?

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: Back on July 19, 2017, I wrote about using point and figure charting as a way of projecting an upside SPX target when the index stood at 2473 (see What’s the upside target in this rally?). Using different sets of inputs that represent different time horizons and risk tolerances, I arrived at a target range, and a …

Buy the breakout?

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

The things you don’t see at market bottoms, CFD leverage edition

In Free by Cam Hui

It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. I have stated that while I don’t believe that the stock market …

The Fed has spoken (and what that means)

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

NAAIM buy signal update

In Free by Cam Hui

I had highlighted an unusual contrarian buy signal in my last post (see Round number-itis at 2500). NAAIM sentiment, which is reported weekly, turned anomalously bearish last week and fell below its lower Bollinger Band. Past episodes of such occurrences have turned out to be very good contrarian buy signals.     The reading last week was anomalous because every …

Round number-itis at 2500

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: I normally write my mid-week market update on Wednesday, but the market action on FOMC decision days tend to be wildcards and not necessarily indicative of future market direction, therefore I am writing my commentary a day early. I agree with Jonathan Krinsky of MKM Partners when he wrote that the stock market is likely to encounter …

Things you don’t see at market bottoms, Paris Hilton edition

In Free by Cam Hui

It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. I have stated that while I don’t believe that the stock market …

Correction is over, wait for the blow-off top

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

September uncertainties

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

“Fire and Fury” is hard

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

The things you don’t see at market bottoms: No fear edition

In Free by Cam Hui

It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. I have stated that while I don’t believe that the stock market …

Bullish exhaustion

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: You can tell a lot about the tone of the tape by how it reacts to news. There is growing evidence that the stock market is becoming immune to good news, which is a signal of bullish exhaustion. In all likelihood, the near-term path of least resistance for stock prices is down. The results from Q2 Earnings …

Curb your (bullish) enthusiasm

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: Subscribers received an email update of the tactically fragile environment for US equities on Monday. There are plenty of reasons to be cautious. Trade Followers observed that the Twitter breadth of all sectors are bullish, and such conditions are reflective of overbought market conditions: Last week, sector sentiment gleaned from the Twitter stream had every sector positive. …

Things you don’t see at market bottoms: Wild claims edition

In Free by Cam Hui

It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. I have stated that while I don’t believe that the stock market …

Things you don’t see at market bottoms, Retailphoria edition

In Free by Cam Hui

It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. I have stated that while I don’t believe that the stock market …

The things you don’t see at market bottoms, bullish bandwagon edition

In Free by Cam Hui

It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. I have stated that while I don’t believe that the stock market …

Nearing the terminal phase of this equity bull

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …