What you should and shouldn’t worry about in 2018

In Free by Cam Hui

The end of December is filled with analyst forecasts for the following year. I would like to take this time to debunk some of the doomster myths about the stock market, and to outline some of the true risks that I worry about in the year to come. One of the major myths that have been trotted out is the …

Five steps, where’s the stumble?

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Here comes the blow-off

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Brace for a more volatile 2018

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

A market volatility update

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: In my weekend post (see Good news, bad news from Earnings Season), I had identified several sources of potential market volatility this week: Mueller indictments GOP tax plan FOMC decision Fed chair nomination Key macro-economic reports It’s time for an update, and it spells caution for the bulls. Mueller indictments I don’t consider my job to judge …

What would a Taylor Fed look like?

In Free by Cam Hui

Bloomberg reported that Donald Trump interviewed John Taylor for the position of Fed chair and “Trump gushed about Taylor after his interview”, as “Kevin Warsh has…seen his star fade within the White House”. The current list of leading candidates under consider are said to be Jerome Powell, John Taylor, Kevin Warsh, and Janet Yellen. Taylor’s rise in the candidate stakes …

Market melt-up and crash?

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Equity lessons from the bond market

In Free by Cam Hui

Political operative and former Clinton advisor James Carville once quipped that he wanted to be reincarnated as the bond market so that he could intimidate everybody. Equity investors and traders are well advised to remember that comment, as there is much to be learned from a cross-asset, or inter-market, viewpoint from bond market action. For example, the relative performance of …

The Fed has spoken (and what that means)

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

A secular bottom for inflation?

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

The Fed’s perfect storm of 2018

In Free by Cam Hui

I see that the world is catching up to me. The resignation of Federal Reserve vice chairman Stanley Fischer has sharpened the focus of analysts on the future composition of the Fed Board in determining the direction of monetary policy. This is a topic that I have been writing about since June (see A Fed preview: What happens in 2018?). …

A stepwise market advance

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: In my post written last Sunday (see September uncertainties), I outlined three disparate sources of uncertainty that faced investors in September. Legislative uncertainty over the debt ceiling and tax reform; Geopolitical uncertainty over North Korea; and Uncertainty over Fed action. While some of those problems have been temporarily resolved, developments since the weekend have raised further questions …

September uncertainties

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Hurricane Harvey as a mini-stress test

In Free by Cam Hui

Q: What’s George W. Bush position on Roe vs. Wade? A: He doesn’t care how people get out of New Orleans after Katrina. – Joke that circulated in the aftermath of Hurricane Kartina There are many stories coming out in the wake of Hurricane Harvey that hit Texas. I was most struck by this BBC account of the woman who …

Is the Fed tightening into a stalling economy?

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Bought for a good time, not a long time

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: Last Friday, subscribers received an email alert indicating that the trading model had flipped from short to long. In my weekend commentary (see “Fire and Fury” is hard) that my inner trader expected “the time horizon of that trade to be not much more than a week.” I am reminded of the Trooper song, “We’re here for …

Why the labor market is tighter than you think

In Free by Cam Hui

As the FOMC meets this week, one key question for Fed policy makers is, “How tight is the labor market?” A related question is, “In the face of tame inflation statistics, when are we going to see evidence of rising wage growth?” Both questions are important for monetary policy. The New York Times had an article that lamented the lack …

In search of the elusive inflation surge

In Free by Cam Hui

US bond yields began to settle down last week when Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated in her Congressional testimony that the neutral rate for Fed Funds is roughly the inflation rate, which is much lower than market expectations. In addition, she allowed that the Fed is likely to re-evaluate its tightening path in light of tame inflation figures. Even Fed …

A mid-year review of 2018 recession risk

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Nearing the terminal phase of this equity bull

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …