What's on the calendar this week? Did you forget? Oh yeah, there's an FOMC meeting this week, and there's the November Jobs Report on Friday. While not much policy change is expected from the Fed this week, Barron's has already anointed Jerome Powell as "the winner". (Has anyone started to call him the Maestro...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
I am not in the habit of peddling conspiracy theories, but this is inadvertently becoming a Halloween tradition. Last Halloween, I wrote about how China could control Taiwan without firing a shot (see Scary Halloween story: How a weak USD could hand China a major victory). This year, a new geopolitical tail-risk is materializing for investors...
Mid-week market update: There is an adage that when dentists start to buy, you should be selling. I came upon a tweet by a resident in Los Angeles with a dentist in the Santa Monica area. The dental office is expecting riots next week, regardless of who wins the election. FBI firearm background...
I have some good news and bad news. The good news is the option market isn't as concerned about the prospect of a contested election. The chart below shows the history of the term structure of at-the-money implied volatility (IV). The latest readings shows that IV spikes just after Election Day, and deflates slowly afterward....
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