Major top ahead? My inner investor turns cautious

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

From FOMO to Tech Panic to…

Mid-week market update: I am writing the mid-week update a day early for two reasons. First, tomorrow is FOMC day and anything can happen. As well, I am getting on an airplane and I will be in the air when the market closes. It is astonishing how nervous the market has become after Facebook's disappointing...

The universe is unfolding as it should

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

The inevitability of rising trade tensions under a GOP president

There has been a lot of hand wringing about the rising level of protectionism in the US and around the world. Let's take an alternative view to perform our analysis. Imagine an alternative universe, where Donald Trump did not secure the GOP nomination in 2016, but another Republican went on to win the election. I...

Charted: How worried should you be about a trade war?

Understandably, there has been a lot of market angst over a looming trade war. Indeed, the University of Michigan Business Confidence Index shows a rising level of anxiety.     How worried should you be?   Measuring the Trump effect I approach the question in a number of ways. First, let's measure the Trump effect...