China, paper tiger

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Is the market melting up?

Mid-week market update: I am leaving on a seasonal family vacation tomorrow, so posting will be lighter than usual. While the usual weekend publications will continue, tactical market interpretations are problematical this time of year when liquidity is low. However, here are some guidelines on how to think about the stock market for the remainder...

Adventures in banking

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Here comes the beta chase

Mid-week market update: Notwithstanding any issues traders may have with short-term volatility, the market is setting up for a year-end beta chase Santa Claus rally. After a prolong period of defensive posturing, equity fund flows are turning strongly positive again.     As the TD-Ameritrade IMX shows, retail positioning is still underweight, and the scope...