The S&P 500 nears a ceiling

Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 has been a little stronger than I expected as it tests upside resistance. I would urge traders to exercise caution as the market is exhibiting negative RSI divergences. Even though these kinds of divergences can persist for a while, they nevertheless indicate limited upside potential.       A valuation...

Bullish Exhaustion = Pullback or Consolidation

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Don’t buy that TACO just yet

TACO stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out” in trade negotiations. Financial Times journalist Robert Armstrong coined the term “TACO trade” as a colourful way of characterizing the Trump Put. When questioned by a reporter, Trump turned livid when he learned what TACO stood for.   It is in that context when, later in the day,...

Don’t just obsess over NVIDIA

Mid-week market update: On the weekend, I presented this inverted chart of the S&P 500 as a different perspective and rhetorically asked, "Would you buy a stock with this chart?"     At the time, I had a slight bearish tilt on the market. Since then, the news backdrop has been calming. Trump extended the...

Bond vigilantes and trade tensions derail the momentum bull

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...