A question of leadership

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A no-surprise Federal Reserve

Mid-week market update: I told you so. Earlier in the week, I wrote that the market had become overly hawkish about interest rate expectations (see Hawkish expectations). Leading up to the November FOMC meeting, the Fed had signaled that a QE taper is about to begin and, if everything goes along with projections, the first...

Hawkish expectations

Short-term rates are freaking out. 2-year yields are rising based on the expectation of a tightening bias by global central bankers.     The market should gain greater clarity on central bank intentions soon. Both the Fed and the BoE will announce their interest rate decisions this week and the BLS will report Non-Farm Payroll...

Waiting for the FOMC

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...