New Year, New Fears

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Three questions investors need to ask in 2023

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva recently said in a CBS Face the Nation interview that the IMF expects "one third of the world economy to be in recession". She went on to outline the differing outlooks for the three major trading blocs in the world, the US, EU, and China, plus emerging market economies. For most...

If Santa should fail to call…

Mid-week market update: Wall Street has many adages. One concern is the Santa Claus rally: "If Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall". The Santa Claus rally window began the day after Christmas and ended today, two days into the new year. The S&P 500 has been range-bound since mid-December....

A 2022 report card

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

What to expect when you’re expecting (a recession)

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...