The market endures a summer squall

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

The market risk hiding in plain sight

As the infrastructure and budget bills make their way through Congress, I was surprised to see that the latest BoA Global Fund Manager Survey did not mention a corporate tax increase as a key risk to the S&P 500.      The Biden tax proposals have been well telegraphed and most of the details have...

The USD’s exorbitant privilege

For the crypto folks who embrace the libertarian philosophy of using a medium of exchange not issued by any national government, here are a couple of reminders of what the USD "exorbitant privilege" means in real life.    First, the Canadian extradition hearing for Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou finally ended yesterday after nearly three years...

A fear of Delta?

Mid-week market update: Stock prices have taken a minor and uneven risk-off tone this week. The pullback has been attributable to fears over a Delta variant-related slowdown.    I beg to differ. Instead, the weakness can be better explained by market technical conditions. The 5-day correlation between the S&P 500 and VVIX, or the volatility...

Prepare for a growth stock correction

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...