Trading the seasonal weakness

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Sector leadership review: Bear market vibes?

Now that the 2s10s yield curve has un-inverted, a review of sector leadership is showing bearish vibes. In particular, the relative performance of defensive sectors is turning up.     I conducted an extensive sector and factor rotation review to determine the extent of the damage.     Bearish vibes For the purposes of analyzing...

Prelude to a correction

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

LBO insights: Why these deep value stocks have become even cheaper

Mark Hulbert recently published an ominous warning at MarketWatch about excessive valuation in the U.S. equity market. Most valuation ratios are in the top 90% since 2000 and “as overvalued as it was at the market top on Jan. 3, 2022”.     How worried should you be?   Hulbert admitted in his article that...