How to trade the post-election melt-up

Mid-week market update: I pointed out on the weekend (see A final update on the Trump Trade: Tail-risk assessment) that the term structure of the VIX had inverted, indicating high levels of market anxiety. The market was hedging for a catastrophic outcome that turned out to be nothing. Today's post-election rally is mainly attributable to...

A final update on the Trump Trade: Tail-risk assessment

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Revisiting the Trump trade

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

What I am and what I am not worried about

Publication notice: I will be starting a two-week holiday this weekend, and here is my planned publication schedule. Weekend publications will be condensed from two publications to one. Barring significant market volatility, there will be no mid-week market update. Regular service will resume after the U.S. election.   Mid-week market update:  We are in the...

Some preliminary thoughts on Q3 earnings season

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...