Are negative divergences necessarily bearish?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Is transitory disinflation here to stay?

I’ve discussed the risk of transitory disinflation before, and it manifested itself in the form of hotter-than-expected January CPI and PPI reports. The reports rattled the bond market and expectations of the first quarter-point rate cut has been pushed out from May to June and a slower rate cut trajectory for the remainder of year....

Why this AI bull is nothing like the NASDAQ in 2000

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

How investable is China? (Revisited)

About a year ago, when China emerged out of its zero-COVID lockdowns, I rhetorically asked, “How investable is China?”. I concluded, “Long-term investors in China are likely to face subpar returns coupled with high volatility”.   Now that China’s troubles have returned, it’s time to revisit the China investability question. The accompanying chart shows that...