China’s cunning plan to defuse trade tensions and reduce financial tail-risk

About three years ago, I outlined China's plan to extend its infrastructure growth without creating more white elephant projects in China (see China's cunning plan to revive growth). Enter the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative to create infrastructure projects in the region. OBOR projects were to financed by the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB),...

Evaluating Jim Paulsen’s market warning

I have been a fan of Jim Paulsen for quite some time. The chart below depicts the track record of my major market calls. His work formed the basis for my timely post in May 2015 (see Why I am bearish (and what would change my mind)), which was received with great skepticism at the...

Watch the Fed, not the trade war noise

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

The post-FANG market beaters hiding in plain sight

Mid-week market update: It is encouraging that the stock market held up well in the face of bad news on global trade. Global markets adopted a risk-off tone on the news of Chinese trade retaliation, but the SPX managed to hold a key support level and rally through a downtrend line.     Looking over...

What’s the real test? The 200 dma or you?

As the SPX sold off today and tested the 200 day moving average (dma) while exhibiting positive RSI divergences, a Zen-like thought occurred to me. Is the market testing the 200 dma, or is it testing you?     Oversold, but... The stock market is obviously very oversold. My Trifecta Bottom Spotting Model flashed another...