Mid-week market update: The most recent stock market downdraft was sparked by the news of a new virus variant that was initially identified in South Africa and the Fed's hawkish pivot. As evidence emerged that Omicron is more transmissible but less deadly, the market staged an enormous rip-your-face-off short-covering rally. Today, Pfizer and BioNTech reported...
Risk-off came to the crypto world on the weekend as all cryptocurrencies took a sudden tumble. Bitcoin fell as much as 20%. Prices slightly recovered and steadied, but all major coins suffered significant losses. How should investors analyze the crypto crash and what does it mean for equity investors and other risk assets....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Stock markets were recently sideswiped by the dual threat of a new Omicron strain of COVID-19 and Jerome Powell's hawkish pivot. Global markets adopted a risk-on tone and the S&P 500 pulled back to test its 50-day moving average. This week, I assess the damage that these developments have done to the investment...
Mid-week market update: Last Friday's Omicron surprise left a lot of bulls off-guard when the markets suddenly went risk-off on the news of a new variant emerging from South Africa. Stocks became oversold and I observed that "To be bearish here means you are betting on another COVID Crash." (see COVID Crash 2.0?). Even as...
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