Is good economic news good news for equities or bad news? We know how to interpret macro news for the bond market. The Citi Economic Surprise Index (ESI), which measures whether top-down economic releases are beating or missing expectations, has been a bit weak. Historically, a weak ESI has meant lower bond yields. ...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 has risen to a new all-time high, and this move was well-telegraphed. I wrote on the weekend and characterized conditions "half-hearted buy signals that indicate low downside risk". The S&P 500 subsequently staged an upside breakout from a bull flag to a fresh all-time high. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset...
The closely watched April PCE moderated as expected. Headline PCE came in 0.3%, in line with expectations, while core PCE was 0.2% (blue bars), which was softer than expectations. Supercore PCE, or services ex-energy and housing, also decelerated (red bars). This latest print represents useful progress, but won’t significantly move the needle on Fed policy....
Mid-week market update: I pointed out on the weekend that it's not unusual for the S&P 500 to consolidate sideways after reaching its upper Bollinger Band before the market makes its next major directional move. There have been five other similar instances in the last six months. What's a little unusual about the current episode...
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