Mid-week market update: The stock market reacted with a risk-on tone to the FOMC decision. The S&P 500 has staged an upside breakout through the 4100 level. While I am cautiously intermediate-term bullish, be warned that the initial reaction to FOMC decisions are often reversed the following day. Keep in mind that this...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As investors look ahead to the FOMC decision on February 1, the market is expecting two consecutive quarter-point rate hikes, followed by a plateau, and a rate cut in late 2023. The rate hike path and subsequent pause are consistent with the Fed's communication policy. Already, the Bank of Canada raised rates by...
Mid-week market update: As we enter Q4 earnings season, the macro backdrop looks grim. The Economic Surprise Index, which measures whether economic releases are beating or missing expectations, is weakening. Weak fundamentals From a bottom-up perspective, FactSet reported that the market entered Q4 earnings season with a trend of falling net margins....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset...
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