A March Jobs Report preview

I have two thoughts ahead of the March Jobs Report that investors should consider. Let's start with the tactical picture of what Friday's reports might bring. Recent jobs data has been distorted by the effects of the federal government shutdown, which can make the reported figures nonsensical. Now that the effects of the shutdown are...

Could a unicorn cull tank the US economy?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The " Ultimate Market Timing Model " is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each...

Some clarity from a “show me” week

Mid-week market update: I had characterized this week as a "show me" week for the market, though I had a slight bullish bias (see How the market could melt up). While I remained tactically bullish, a number of unanswered questions remained in light of the yield curve related sell-off that began late last week. Some...

Why the yield curve panic is a buying opportunity

There was some confusion from readers in response to my bullish pivot in yesterday's post (see How the market could melt up). Much of the confusion was attributable to the bear porn that has been floating around since last Friday from the inverted yield curve when the 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 3-month. One...

How the market could melt-up

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...