How far can this rally run?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Have the bulls seized control of the tape?

Mid-week market update: After weeks of documenting how oversold and washed out the stock market is, the S&P 500 staged a marginal upside breakout through a falling channel while exhibiting a series of positive 5-day RSI divergences. Equally constructive is the behavior of net new highs, which turned positive today.     Have the bulls...

Washed out enough?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

From FOMO to GIDOT (Glad I Don’t Own That)

Legendary investor John Templeton once said: Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell. Where are we in the market cycle? From a long-term...