By now, investors should know about the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade where Trump reverses on one of his initiatives based on the market’s reaction. Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm recently introduced an additional political constraint on Trump’s actions. The Big MAC (Midterms Are Coming) factor has also forced some reversals. I...
Mid-week market update: In case you missed it, the dreaded Hindenburg Omen has reared its ugly head again. In plain English, the Hindenburg Omen is signaled when a market with bifurcated breadth sees a rollover in price momentum. Single day signals tend not to be very useful, but clusters of signals may foreshadow future drawdowns. ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I have been an advocate of holding a barbell position of U.S. large-cap growth and EAFE value stocks in equity allocations. More recently, the EAFE value portion has outperformed while the U.S. large-cap growth component has lagged. As a consequence, I am increasingly seeing questions of whether it’s time to rethink the allocation to U.S....
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 achieved a fresh all-time high yesterday (Tuesday) and it touched 7000 today before retreating. President Trump posted about the event, did he jinx the market? Probably not. The Fed presented the market with a number of potential surprises. In the end, the Fed decision and the subsequent...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
When the markets became rattled by the prospect of a Trump threat to annex Greenland over the weekend, I knew that a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) walk back was inevitable. I observed in the past that the markets would eventually discipline Trump’s unusual excesses. Indeed, the combination of a spiking 10-year Treasury yield and...
Mid-week market update: Investors have seen this movie before in the recent past. A market moving event breaks over the weekend. The market freaks out at the open. The market calms soon after and life goes on. The last time this happened, the news was an investigation of Fed Chair Powell. This time, it’s...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I know that I have been negative on many Trump policies in these pages, but to everything there is a season. For U.S. equity investors, early 2026 is a time to reap the benefits of Trump’s 2025 policies. Last year was tumultuous for policy, but policy uncertainty is fading, and the stimulative and pro-cyclical elements...
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