The dawn of a new bull?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Handicapping the odds of a V-shaped recovery

Last week's stock market rally appears to be based on the hopes of a V-shaped economic recovery, powered by the combination of all-in monetary stimulus, and fiscal stimulus, as evidenced by a $2 trillion bill passed in Congress. Street consensus is now a V-shaped rebound, with a trough in Q2. This Goldman Sachs forecast is...

The makings of a primary low

Mid-week market update: Did the Economist do it again with another contrarian magazine cover indicator? At the top of the market, their issue cover was entitled "Big tech's $2trn bull run". Last weekend, their cover featured a "closed" sign on the earth. The market staged an upside breakout through a falling trend line yesterday, and...

Where to hide in this bear market

There is little doubt that we are in a recession induced bear market. Goldman Sachs published their GDP forecast late last week of a V-shaped slowdown and recovery. For some context, New Deal democrat raised an important point about a framework for thinking about the recession by flipping the well-known "flatten the curve" chart upside down:...

This is insane! Where’s the bear market rally?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Where’s the bottom?

There is little question that the stock market is wildly oversold. My intermediate term bottom spotting model has been flashing a buy signal for over a week. This signal is based on the combination of an oversold signal on the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicators, and the NYSE McClellan Summation Index (NYSI) turning negative. In the...

So bad, it’s good?

Mid-week market update: This bear market has astonishing in its ferocity, but we may be reaching the it's so bad things are good point. Here are some "green shoots" that are starting to show up. Baron Rothchild was famously quoted as saying, "The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets, even...

The 9/11 market template

In my last post (see 2020 bounce = 1987, or 1929), I had been searching for a template for the current bear market. I had suggested in the past that the roots of this bear has thematic similarities to 2008 (see A Lehman Crisis of a different sort). Today, health authorities are urging the use...

2020 bounce = 1987, or 1929?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

My recession call explained

In the past week, I have had several discussions with investors about my recession call (see OK, I'm calling it). Since the publication of that note, Bloomberg Economics' US recession probability estimate spiked recently up to 55%. The odds of a 2020 recession at betting sites are even higher. To reiterate, I would like to...