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Revisiting the Trump trade

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

What I am and what I am not worried about

Publication notice: I will be starting a two-week holiday this weekend, and here is my planned publication schedule. Weekend publications will be condensed from two publications to one. Barring significant market volatility, there will be no mid-week market update. Regular service will resume after the U.S. election.   Mid-week market update:  We are in the...

Some preliminary thoughts on Q3 earnings season

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

An ominous sign for stock returns?

Goldman Sachs recently reported that the allocation to equities as a percentage of household assets had risen to levels last seen at the height of the NASDAQ Bubble. Is this an ominous sign of a crowded trade? Are investors in a crowded long that stocks are about to enter a painful 2000–2002-style bear market?  ...

A buy signal. but with a *

Mid-week market update: Further to my last post (see A buy signal setup), the 14-day RSI of the S&P 500 Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM) flashed a buy signal when it recycled from oversold to neutral. By the book, this is a legitimate buy signal.     Under the current circumstances, I have some...

A buy signal setup

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Near term volatility ahead, but don’t fret

Is the U.S. progress on inflation a case of two steps forward, one step back? Even before the stronger-than-expected September CPI report, bond prices were declining in the wake of the Fed’s jumbo half-point rate cut decision.   The Treasury market is exhibiting signs of anxiety from a technical analyst’s perspective. The 7–10-year Treasury ETF...

Survive October

Mid-week market update: Ryan Detrick has been correctly bullish during the rally from late 2023. He recently pointed out that it may be time for the stock market to take a breather, “October higher only once out of six times it was up 30% or more going into Q4 and Q4 below avg returns as...

Thinking the unthinkable: Israel-Iran War

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A powerful buy signal, with caveats

There is an adage on Wall Street that investors shouldn’t fight the Fed (or central banks in general), but the devil is in the details.   Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts that global central banks are engaged in a broad-based easing campaign. The limited sample of the history of such episodes (annotations are mine) show...