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Earnings Monitor: Big Tech surprises

Q2 earnings season is now past the halfway mark. So far 63% of the market has reported. FactSet reported the EPS beat rate rose to 84% from 81% the previous week. The sales beat rate was fell to 69% from 71% the previous week. Both the EPS and sales beat rates are ahead of their 5-year...

An uneasy feeling

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Fiscal cliff = Double-dip

The coronavirus has imposed both a supply shock and a demand shock to the global economy. The supply shock was in the form of disruption to supply chains as factories were shuttered. The supply shock has largely been corrected. The demand shock was in the form of a loss of demand as lockdown and stay-at-home...

What gold tells us about Fed policy expectations

Mid-week market update: It can be difficult to discern the market’s short-term outlook on an FOMC meeting day, but the Fed has spoken, and the market reaction has important signals for equity investors from an inter-market, or cross-asset, analytical basis. The first important signal comes from gold prices. Gold staged an upside breakout to a...

Earnings Monitor: A qualified upbeat tone

Q2 earnings season is now in full swing. So far 26% of the market has reported. FactSet reported the EPS beat rate rose to 81% from 73%, last week which was well above the 5-year average. The sales beat rate was fell to 71% from 78% last week, but it remains ahead of the 5-year...

Warnings, warnings everywhere, but bears should not drink…

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Analyzing the bull case

Regular readers will know that I have been cautious about the equity markets over the past few months. Good investors cannot be overly dogmatic, and in that spirit, I contemplate what the bull case may be, From a strictly technical perspective, price momentum has been strong. The Wilshire 5000 is on the verge of flash...

A market in transition

Mid-week market update:I observed in the past that the market had undergone a regime shift, and most of the gains were occurring overnight, while prices were lagging during daylight hours (see My inner trader returns to the drawing board). This is an indication of a jittery market sensitive to headlines that were released after the...

Earnings Monitor: Waiting for Congress

We are starting our coverage of the Q2 earnings season. Let’s begin with the big picture. FactSet reported that, with 9% of the companies reported, the EPS beat rate was 73%, which was slightly above the 5-year average. The sales beat rate was 78%, which was well above the 5-year average of 60%. The bottom-up...

Pockets of opportunity in an uncertain market

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...