Opportunity from Brexit turmoil

There has been much hand wringing over the Brexit process. Deutsche Welle reported that Angela Merkel stated that Brexit would leave a very challenging €12 billion hole in the 2021-27 EU budget. Across the English Channel, Politico reported that Brexit Secretary David Davis assured businesses that "the UK will not become a ‘Mad Max-style world...

A pause at 61.8%

Mid-week market update: After much indecision, the SPX paused at its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.     The 50 day moving average (dma) which could have acted as support did not hold. I had also previously identified a possible Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal setup. Unless the market really surges in the next two days,...

Powell Fed: Market wildcard

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

How the market could fool us again

Mid-week market update: I can tell that a stock market downdraft is a correction and not the start of a major bear market when the doomsters crawl out of the woodwork after the market has fallen (see Is the 'short volatility' blowup Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers?) and analysis from SentimenTrader shows that their smart...

Did risk-parity funds crash the bond market?

When the markets crash unexpectedly, everyone is on the lookup for culprits. One of the leading theories behind the latest downdraft in stock prices is the rise in bond yields, which spooked the stock market. Derivative analysts have pointed the finger at Risk-Parity funds as the leading actors in the bond market rout. They contend...