Mid-week market update: It was a hawkish pause. The Fed’s decided to leave rates unchanged, but in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), it acknowledged that the economy is strong than its June projections. More importantly, the Fed Funds target for the end of this year remains unchanged, indicating that FOMC members expect another quarter-point...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Correlation isn’t causation, but the USD Index has shown a close inverse correlation to the S&P 500. The relationship partly ended when the S&P 500 surged on AI mania. However, small-cap stocks, which are less subject to the enthusiasm over the AI revolution, maintained their inverse correlation. The USD Index is approaching a...
Mid-week market update: Instead of just focusing on the U.S. market, I offer these two mystery charts of EM markets. One is a contrarian play, the other a momentum play. Mystery charts revealed The top chart, the contrarian play, is MSCI China relative to MSCI All-Country World Index Ex-US. The latest BoA...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As the Street parsed Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and obsessed over whether the Fed would raise an additional quarter-point, the annual Fed symposium at Jackson Hole is meant for central bankers to consider Big Ideas which reflect the concerns of the day. The centrepiece of such ideas was usually an academic paper. As an...
Mid-week market update: While I give seasonality only passing importance in trading, it is well known that September is seasonally negative for S&P 500 returns, which Callum Thomas recently documented. Can the stock market escape the negative seasonal pattern in 2023? More downside potential Looking under the hood, market internals are...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Sometimes it’s useful to step back and look at the big picture by ignoring the daily or weekly squiggles of the market. One useful technique of filtering out market squiggles is the point and figure (P&F) chart, which StockCharts describes this way: Point & Figure charts consist of columns of X’s and O’s that represent...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
