Three reasons to ignore the Turkish Apocalypse hype

Mid-week market update: Earlier in the week, Mark Hulbert wrote that "U.S. investors should see this Turkish crisis as a buying opportunity". Hulbert went on to cite the historical record of past currency crises: And it’s not just 20-20 hindsight for me to point this out now, with a strong bull market under our belts....

How far can stock prices fall in a bear market?

One of the most frequently asked questions from last week's post (see Major market top ahead: My inner investor turns cautious) was my downside objective for stock prices. While technical analysis could highlight a possible trigger for a bear phase, it is less reliable for quantifying downside risk. Assuming the trigger for a bear market is...

Two gifts from the market gods

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Traders: Market stalling, but buy the dip

Mid-week market update: My inner trader remains constructive in his bullish view for stocks, but the recent advance appears to have gotten ahead of itself. My trading models indicate a 2-4 day period of weakness, followed by continued strength into all-time highs. In the short-term, the market is flashing cautionary signals for traders. The SPX...

A bullish setup for gold

As the stock market enters the late stages of its bull run (see my last post Market top ahead? My inner investor turns cautious), inflation hedge vehicles typically rally as inflationary pressures rise. We are starting to see a similar effect in gold prices. As the chart below shows, the recent weakness in gold prices...