Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Is there any more "pop" after last week's drop? The market certainly had a big rally yesterday, and it is not unusual to see a pause the day after a big move. Here are the bull and bear cases. Bull case Option based sentiment is supportive of further advances....
I received a ton of comments after yesterday's post (see A correction, or the start of a bear market?), probably because of the tumultuous nature of last week's market action. Readers pointed out a number of buy and sell signals that I had missed in yesterday's post and asked me to comment on them. (Rather...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
The last time I published a post in a series of "things you don't see at market bottoms" based on US based investor enthusiasm was in June. Sufficient signs have emerged again for another edition. As a reminder, it is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when...
Mid-week market update: Is the correction over? At least my inner trader had been positioned for market weakness. Subscribers who had been following my inner trader, you know that we issued real-time alerts to buy the market on September 12, 2018 and flipped short on September 21, 2018. (You can subscribe here if you haven't done so). ...
Recessions serve to unwind the excesses of the past expansion cycle. While the immediate odds of a US recession is still relatively low right now (see A recession in 2020?), and there are few excesses in the economy, the problems are found outside US borders. This time, most of the excessive private debt accumulation has...
