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Seasonal weakness ahead?

Mid-week market update: Jeffrey Hirsch of Almanac Trader recently indicated that the first part of December sees a period of seasonal weakness, followed by small cap leadership into year-end.     I regard seasonality as informing me about the climate, while the weather can vary day-to-day. Here is my assessment of the weather ahead.  ...

Stock market clues from the bond market

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

2025 outlook: Cautious, but not bearish

This is the season when investment strategists publish their outlooks and forecasts for the coming year. This year, the message from investment banks is mostly the same: “We are bullish for stocks in 2025, but there are these policy risks of the new Trump Administration.”   This time last year, I expected returns of about...

All-time highs are bullish

Mid-week market update: It is said that there is nothing more bullish than a stock or a market making a new high. The S&P 500 made a marginal all-time high yesterday and pulled back today. Yesterday’s high was more convincing as both the Dow and equal-weighted S&P 500 decisively broke out to all-time highs. This...

An insightful interview with Scott Bessent

RenMac hosted an interview with Scott Bessent, who is Trump’s announced nominee for Treasury Secretary, in early 2021. While Bessent did not talk about policy or politics, I found it highly insightful as he described his career path and his investment process.     The interview is useful to listen to in its entirety, but...

All hail the bullish reversal

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Deciphering Trumponomics 2.0

The year is nearly over and the U.S. will see Donald Trump in the White House in 2025. Ryan Detrick’s analysis of historical equity returns found that stocks historically do better in the first two years of a president who was re-elected versus a new president in office. The key question is whether Trump 2.0...

Waiting for the gap fill

Mid-week market update: The decline in the S&P 500 seems to have been arrested at its 20 dma (blue line). The next question is which price gap gets filled first. A fill of the upside gap (in grey) would be positive for the bull case, while a fill of the downside gap (in pink) would...

2025 high conviction idea: Gold

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Can Trump Make Equities Great Again?

U.S. equity prices rose strongly in the wake of Trump’s victory. As the accompanying shows, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 surged on a relative basis, while other regions tanked.     Donald Trump promised to Make America Great Again. While he may have accomplished that task in the short run for U.S. stocks,...