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Overhead resistance test = Possible weakness ahead

Mid-week market update; The S&P 500 has undergone a powerful rally off June’s bottom, but it’s now approaching technical resistance in the form of a 200 dma and a falling trend line. In addition, the market is overbought as measured by the 5 and 14-day RSIs, much in the manner of early November 2021.  ...

A warning from a market leadership review

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

The overlooked reason why the market is so strong

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Why this isn’t your father’s recession (and how to profit from it)

There is a growing acceptance among investors that the global economy is sliding into recession. S&P Global, which was formerly known as IHS Markit, reported:   The global manufacturing PMI survey’s Output Index, which acts as a reliable advance indicator of actual worldwide output trends several months ahead of comparable official data (see chart 2),...

What’s “Black Swan” in Chinese?

Mid-week market update: Here we go again. Just when you thought world events were under control, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan raised the geopolitical risk premium.     And just as I predicted on the weekend (see In what world is fighting the Fed a good idea?), we’ve had a cacophony of Fed...

How a war of conquest has become a contest of pain

I received considerable feedback from readers in response to my publication, Bearishness, begone!. They expressed concern over the terrifying spike in European natural gas prices. In response to the EU’s support for Ukraine, Russia has weaponized its energy exports. Gazprom has already reduced Nord Stream 1 gas flows to 20% of capacity. What happens this...

In what world is fighting the Fed a good idea?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Bearishness begone!

The returns of my Trend Asset Allocation Model have been strong. Based on an “out of sample” record of signals from 2013 and a simulated portfolio that varies up to +/- 20% from a 60/40 benchmark, the model portfolio has managed to achieve equity-like returns with 60/40-like risk. Performance has also been consistently positive in...