Imagining the next bear market

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset ...
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A summer reading list

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

I will be off for a few days in Oregon, where I will (hopefully) observe the Great American Eclipse of 2017. The regular weekend commentary will continue to be published, but posting will be lighter than usual as internet access is expected to be spotty. Before I leave, I leave you with a summer reading list. I have been asked ...
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Bought for a good time, not a long time

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: Last Friday, subscribers received an email alert indicating that the trading model had flipped from short to long. In my weekend commentary (see “Fire and Fury” is hard) that my inner trader expected “the time horizon of that trade to be not much more than a week.” I am reminded of the Trooper song, “We’re here for ...
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“Fire and Fury” is hard

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset ...
To access this content, you must be a subscriber.

Correction ahead

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: Narrow trading ranges are often technical signs of sideways consolidation, followed by further upside. In this case, bulls are likely to be disappointed, as market internals point to a correction ahead.     I am reiterating my tactically cautious view that has been in place for the last two weeks (see Curb your (bullish) enthusiasm) for the ...
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Can China save the world again?

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Japan saved the world in the aftermath of the Crash of 1987. When the panic selling of stocks cascaded around the world, the Nikkei Index bent, but did not break (via the FT): The Nikkei tumbled 15 per cent on its “Black Tuesday” in the wake of Wall Street’s violent collapse and lost a further 5 per cent before global ...
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