It is Easter Monday, a day when Christians focus on the theme of rebirth and resurrection, Healthcare stocks just underwent a near-death experience when the market panicked over the prospect of a Democrat victory in 2020, and the potential negative effects of the implementation of a Medicare-For-All policy. To be sure, there are costs to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I would like to address a number of bearish themes floating around the internet in the past few weeks, they consist of: A low volume stock market rally Extreme low volatility (remember the VIXmageddon of early 2018) The closing stock buyback window during Earnings Season, which removes buyback support for stocks ...
The US equity market has risen more or less in a straight line since the Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal of January 7, 2019 (see A rare "what's my credit card limit" buy signal). Technically, breadth thrusts are extremely rarely long-term bullish signals. How far can stock price rise from here? Chris Ciovacco...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
-week market update: Numerous signs of a new bullish impulse are appearing. The American economy has sidestepped a recession; Sentiment is not excessively bullish; and Price momentum is strong. It is a truism in investing that you should buy when blood is running in the streets. The latest update of NDR's Global Recession Model shows...
I am somewhat at a loss of why Trump is putting so much pressure on the Federal Reserve. In a recent CNBC interview, CEA chair Kevin Hassett projected that growth would rise again to 3% later this year. “Everything we see right now is teeing us up to have a year like last year -...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Even as the slowdown gloom overtook the market in the past few weeks, stock prices did not break down. Now, the storm seems to be passing as green shoots of growth are starting to appear. For equity investors, the most notable change was the reversal in forward 12-month EPS estimates, which bottomed...
I have two thoughts ahead of the March Jobs Report that investors should consider. Let's start with the tactical picture of what Friday's reports might bring. Recent jobs data has been distorted by the effects of the federal government shutdown, which can make the reported figures nonsensical. Now that the effects of the shutdown are...
