Mid-week market update: In my post written last Sunday (see September uncertainties), I outlined three disparate sources of uncertainty that faced investors in September. Legislative uncertainty over the debt ceiling and tax reform; Geopolitical uncertainty over North Korea; and Uncertainty over Fed action. While some of those problems have been temporarily resolved, developments since the weekend have raised further questions …
The bullish implications of the North Korean Bomb
In the wake of the news of the latest North Korean news, Donald Trump responded with his usual tweetstorm. The markets have learned that Trump doesn’t necessarily follow up presidential tweets with action. Official statements, on the other hand, are another matter. In the aftermath of the North Korean missile test which overflew Japan, the statement that “all options …
September uncertainties
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …
“Fire and Fury” is hard
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …
Thinking Straight 101
Good afternoon, class. Welcome to another session of “Thinking Straight 101”. Your assignment today is to choose one of the topics below and write an essay for next week’s class: North Korea: George Friedman at Geopolitical Futures recently warned, “All the signs are there: The U.S. is telling North Korea, in no uncertain terms, that war is approaching.” Discuss the …
Two elections, two questions for investors
In the past week, two key elections have been held that have important geopolitical, economic, and investment implications. First, remember this Time magazine cover? I indicated on February 6, 2017 that the cover may have marked Peak populism. I suggested at the time to buy France and sell Germany as a pairs trade. That trade has certainly worked …
The Art of the Deal, North Korean edition
Can we stop freaking out over the prospect of an imminent war over North Korean nuclear tests? After the hoopla over the North Korean announcement to expect a major event on or before their “Day of the Sun” on April 15, there was much speculation that they would conduct another nuclear test. Trump responded with the assertion that if China …
The miracle of Europe
Here in Canada, we are observing the 100 year commemoration of the participation of Canadian troops in the Battle of Vimy Ridge. While the Canadian Corp achieved its objectives of capturing the ridge, it was a typical battle of the First World War that left enormous casualties for both sides. After the horrific human carnage of the First …
The Trump presidency: A glass half-full
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …
Treasury holdings as a political weapon?
Imagine the following scene in the not too distant future: The US Navy confronts the PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) in the South China Sea. Someone miscalculates and shooting starts and the situation escalates wildly. Eventually, there are three American carrier task forces, accompanied by submarines, along with the fleets of Asian allies like the Philippines, Japan, Australia and so …
Investment insights when giving thanks
In Canada, we had our Thanksgiving a month ago (because the growing season is shorter and it makes no sense to have Thanksgiving in November when it’s freezing in much of the country). Nevertheless, in the spirit of American Thanksgiving, I reflected on what to give thanks about. In light of the events in Paris and Brussels, one silver lining …