Mid-week market update: I recently identified a 2022 market formation where the S&P 500 declines into an FOMC meeting and rallies afterward. The key question for investors is whether the same pattern will repeat itself for the July meeting. If so, the market should top out about now. Here are the bull and...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
With interest rates at or close to the zero lower bound, here are a couple of examples of limits to the power of central bankers. The Federal Reserve: Will it still cut rates after the strong jobs report? The European Central Bank: What are the limits and price of monetary stimulus? Will the Fed cut...
Mid-week market update: As we wait to see if the stock market can break either up or down out of this narrow trading range, this week has been a light week for major market moving economic data, However, there are a number of political and non-economic developments to keep an eye on. The Fed...
In Ben Bernanke's famous 2002 helicopter speech, he made the point that the Fed has numerous tools to fight deflation, even if interest rates was at the zero bound: The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes...
Mid-week market update: On the weekend, I wrote that the stock market was experiencing a bullish breadth thrust and the market is likely to see a series of "good"overbought readings where stock prices either continue to grind up or consolidate sideways as they get overbought (see RIP Correction. Reflationary resurrection next?). So far, so good....
Policy in Europe has generally been done in the back rooms, with the theatre, e.g. PIIGS debt re-negotiations, done in the front rooms. Last year, the markets were panicked because they perceived the backroom elites had lost control of the situation and events were spiraling out of control. Today, it appears that the elites have...
