Assessing the odds of a US-China agreement

In the past week, a number of readers have expressed the conviction that US-China trade tensions are likely to ease in the near future at the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, which will occur at the sidelines of the G20 meeting November 30-December  Bloomberg reported that American farmers are so hopeful that they are storing significant amounts...

A looming global recession, or buying opportunity?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

The new Fragile Five to avoid

In the wake of my last post about whether USD assets and Treasury paper would remain safe haven and diversifiers in the next global downturn (see Will diversified portfolios be doomed in the next recession), I received a number of questions as to what investors should avoid. There is an obvious answer to that question....

An update on gold (but not frankincense or myrrh)

Mid-week market update: There is not much that can be said about the stock market that I have not already said. The small cap seasonal Santa Claus rally that I wrote about appears to be proceeding as expected, though the tape is thin and most professionals have shut down their books for the year.  ...

Negative real yields = Equity sell signal?

A reader asked me my opinion about this tweet by Nautilus Research. According to this study, equities have performed poorly once the inflation-adjusted 10-year Treasury yield turns negative. With real yields barely positive today, Nautilus went on to ask rhetorically if the Fed is behind the inflation fighting curve.     Since the publication of...

The bear case: How Trumponomics keeps me awake at night

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is...

Three key macro factors to watch in today`s market

I have spent a lot of time in these pages writing about the influence of macro-economic factors on market analysis. Indeed, Matt King at Citigroup recently highlighted the growing importance of macro factors on the equity market (chart via Bloomberg):   Here are three key macro factors that I have been watching now for clues...

Watching the USD for stock market direction

Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...

The bulls are winning, but they shouldn’t relax

Mid-week market update: On the weekend, I wrote that the stock market was experiencing a bullish breadth thrust and the market is likely to see a series of "good"overbought readings where stock prices either continue to grind up or consolidate sideways as they get overbought (see RIP Correction. Reflationary resurrection next?). So far, so good....