Watch what they do, not just what they say

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset ...
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Why the S&P 500 won’t get to 2400 (in this rally)

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: As the major market averages make new all-time highs, I conducted an informal and unscientific Twitter poll. I was surprised to see how bullish respondents were.     Let’s just cut to the chase – forget it. Neither the fundamental nor the technical backdrop is ready for an advance of that magnitude. Even though the earnings and …

A blow-off top, or a wimpy top?

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset ...
To access this content, you must be a subscriber.

What’s wrong with the VIX?

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: Increasingly, I have seen cases being made for an equity market correction. This Bloomberg article, “Five charts that say not all is well in the markets” summarizes the bear case well. Uncertainty is at a record high: The number of news stories using the word “uncertainty” is surging. Wall Street vs. Washington: While the Global Economic Uncertainty ...
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Still bullish after my chartist’s round-the-world trip

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

An island reversal sell signal?

In Free by Cam Hui

In response to my last post (see Watching the USD for clues to equity market direction), an alert reader pointed that the SPX had formed a bearish island reversal.     Wikipedia explained the island reversal formation this way: In stock trading and technical analysis, an island reversal is a candlestick pattern with compact trading activity within a range of …

Watching the USD for clues to equity market direction

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: With stock prices pulling back to test its technical breakout to record highs, it is perhaps appropriate to watch other asset classes for clues to equity market direction, especially on a day when the FOMC made its monetary policy announcement. From a cross-asset perspective, there is much riding on the direction of the USD. As the chart …

A focus on growth

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Global market rally = Dow 20K

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: Since the time I issued a correction warning in late December (see A correction on the horizon?), the US equity market has traded sideways in a narrow range. Moreover, the SPX has alternated between a seesaw up-and-down pattern since early January – until today. As the SPX breaks upwards to a new all-time high, and the DJIA …

The contrarian message from rotation analysis

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: Occasionally, it is useful to step back and view the market through a different prism. I was reviewing the RRG charts of sector, region, and factor, and I found that they are all telling a similar story. First, let’s start with a primer. Relative Rotation Graphs, or RRG charts, are a way of depicting the changes in leadership …

Main Street bulls vs. Washington bears

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

A test for the markets

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market comment:¬†Arthur Hill at stockcharts recently observed that the Russell 2000 was in a tight consolidation range, which is characterized by a narrowing Bollinger Band. Such conditions tend to resolve themselves with volatility expansions which represent breakouts from the trading range.   His remarks about the Russell 2000 could also be applicable to the current conditions of the SPX …

The cloudy side of Trump

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

A correction on the horizon?

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: It’s always nice to take a few days off during the holidays, except all that I got for Christmas was a cold. The stock market doesn’t seem to be doing too much better as it tests the bottom of a narrow trading range during what should be a period of positive seasonality.     None of the other …

Santa Claus rally, or round number-itis?

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: As the Dow approaches the magic 20,000 mark, the question for traders is: Will Santa Claus be coming to town this year, or will the market advance stall as it catches “round number-itis”?     Here is what I am watching. Risk appetite Risk appetite metrics are mixed. Fixed income risk appetite, as measured by junk bond performance …

Watch the reaction, not just the Fed

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

A tale of two markets

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Stock prices continue to surge ahead, while the bond market *ahem* is having its difficulties. The Dow Jones Industrials Average made another record high, followed by the Transportation Average. The combination of the dual all-time highs constitutes a Dow Theory buy signal.     By …

Trump makes stocks great again (for now)

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

The start of a new Trump bull?

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Trend vs. counter-trend: Who wins?

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: Traders who rely on technical signals use two main kinds of trading systems. They either rely on trends or counter-trend signals. Trending systems capitalizes on spotting a bandwagon and jumping on it before the crowd to ride it to profit. By contrast, counter-trends systems depend on finding market extremes and positioning for the pending reversal. The market …