A Wall of Worry, or Slope of Hope?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.  ...

Do the bulls have a sentiment problem?

Mid-week market update: (I am publishing my mid-week market update a day early owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday shortened week)   Should the bulls be worried? The Greed and Fear Index has surged to 88, which represents a warning of excessive bullishness.     As well, Willie Delwiche pointed out that his survey of...

Too far, too fast?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.  ...

A crowded long, or a “good overbought” advance?

Mid-week market update: In case you missed it, the Dow Theory flashed a definitive buy signal. Both the Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages made all-time highs on Monday. This is the granddaddy of all technical analysis systems, and investors should sit up and pay attention. Moreover, the Dow may be tracing out a series...

Still testing triple-top resistance

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.  ...

ZBT missed – again!

Mid-week market update: It is ironic that four weeks ago today, I pointed out that the market missed flashing a rare Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal by one day (see Trading the breadth thrust). Market breadth, as measured by the ZBT Indicator, has to rise from an oversold level of 0.40 to an overbought reading...

Zweig Breadth Thrust and triple-top watch

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.  ...

Interpreting the market’s election reaction

Mid-week market update: It’s always instructive to see how the market reacts to the news. If I had told you that the dual market nightmare scenarios of a contested election and a deadlocked election consisting of a Biden Presidency and a Republican-controlled Senate were to come true, would you expect the market to take a...

Scenario planning ahead of the Big Event

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.  ...

How the Election held the market hostage

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.  ...

How the US is becoming an emerging market

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.  ...

A Momentum Renaissance?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Out of the woods?

Mid-week market update: As President Trump left the hospital and returned to the White House, the message from his doctors was he was doing fine, but he was not "out of the woods". Numerous outside physicians have made the point that COVID-19 is nothing like the flu. Flu symptoms hit the patient and eventually dissipate...

The more things change…

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Something for everyone

Mid-week market update: The Presidential Debate last night was painful to watch. After the debate, different broadcasters conducted instant polls of who won the debate. The CNN poll showed that 60% believed that Biden had won, and 29% thought that Trump had won. The Fox poll showed that 60% thought Trump had won, and 39%...