The brewing storm in Asia

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Tops are processes: Here is why

I received a ton of comments after yesterday's post (see A correction, or the start of a bear market?), probably because of the tumultuous nature of last week's market action. Readers pointed out a number of buy and sell signals that I had missed in yesterday's post and asked me to comment on them. (Rather...

A correction, or the start of a bear market?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Has the correction bottomed? What’s next?

Mid-week market update: Is the correction over? At least my inner trader had been positioned for market weakness. Subscribers who had been following my inner trader, you know that we issued real-time alerts to buy the market on September 12, 2018 and flipped short on September 21, 2018. (You can subscribe here if you haven't done so).  ...

A recession in 2020?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

The calm before the storm?

Notwithstanding today's NAFTA USMCA driven reflex rally today, one puzzle to this market is the remarkable level of complacency in the face of potential market moving events, such as a trade war. From a technical perspective, complacency can be seen through the historically low level of weekly Bollinger Band on the VIX Index, which has...

Quantifying the fallout from a full-scale trade war

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

FOMC preview: Prepare for the hawkish surprise

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Surprising conclusions from advanced rotation analysis

Mid-week market update: I have been asked to periodically update my sector leadership analysis as a guide to spot up and coming sector strength. The standard approach is to apply the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) to the market. As an explanation, RRG charts are a way of depicting the changes in leadership in different groups,...

Is China ready for the next downturn?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Short-term bullish, long-term cautious

Mid-week market update: There are a number of signs that the pullback that began in late August has run its course. These conditions makes me short-term bullish, but I remain longer term cautious on equities. The market's recent action of a correction to test its breakout level turned support is constructive. The index pulled back...

Red sky in the morning

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

The Dollar tail wagging the market dog

Mid-week market update: Here at Humble Student of the Markets, we believe that investors can gain great insight through the use of inter-market, or cross asset market, analysis. During this period of heightened trade tensions and emerging market stress, it is the US Dollar that is driving risk appetite, and the direction of stock prices....

The macro risks that keep me awake at night

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

On the verge of a “good overbought” rally, or market stall?

Mid-week market update: As the market broke out through the round number 2900 level, I am indebted to Urban Carmel and others for pointing out that the index is testing a key uptrend line.     There are a number of common elements of the current market conditions to past tests of the uptrend: By...

10 or more technical reasons to be cautious on stocks

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Why positive breadth won’t help the bull case

Mid-week market update: There was a lot of skepticism in response to my last post (see How many pennies left in front of the steamroller?). Much of it was related to comments relating to positive market breadth. I am in debt to Urban Carmel who pointed out back in May that the Advance-Decline Line tends to...

How many pennies are left in front of the steamroller?

A reader commented on the weekend, "TBH, being long here sure feels like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller". I agree. While I have been steadfast in my belief of a "Last Hurrah rally" before a significant market top, that scenario is looking far less likely. As the market tests a key resistance...