The market`s hurdles to sustainable new highs

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: So far, my recent VIX based buy signal has worked out according to plan (see A market top checklist). I emailed subscribers the buy signal from the trading system on Friday, which was triggered when the VIX Index rises above its upper Bollinger Band and then mean reverts below.     If history is any guide, stock ...
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A market top checklist

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset ...
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The island at SPX 2400

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: The SPX rose to a marginal new high this week but broken down through a narrow range due to the latest he said-he said dispute in Washington. The index appears to have formed an island reversal with bearish implications. The market has fallen through two gaps to test its support level at about the 50 day moving ...
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How the bull will die

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

What’s next for gold?

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: My recent sector review was well received, especially when it was framed in the context of how a market cycle rotation works (see In the 3rd inning of a market cycle advance). As I don’t have much to update about the technical condition of the stock market, especially in light of the non-reaction to the FOMC meeting. …

Should you sell in May and go away?

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Just overbought, or a “good overbought” signal?

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: In the past two weeks, I have become progressively more bullish on stocks (see A capitulation bottom? and Buy signals everywhere), based on the belief that the risk/reward trade-off was tilted in favor of the bulls. Even as the market bottomed with sentiment at crowded short levels, the rebound had been unusually weak with little bullish follow-through. …

In the 3rd inning of a market cycle advance

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Buy signals everywhere

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: One of the most reliable trading signals occur when an indicator becomes oversold and mean reverts to neutral (buy signal), or if it gets overbought and mean reverts to neutral (sell signal). We saw numerous versions of buy signals of that variety from the VIX Index this week. Consider, for example, the VIX/VXV ratio as a measure …

Buy! The party is still going strongly

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

A capitulation bottom?

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: In my weekend post (see Buy the dip!), I wrote that despite my tactical bullishness, “traders need to allow for a brief rally, followed by a sharp drop to a washout low before this shallow correction is over”. We are finally seeing signs of an oversold market and a short-term capitulation. There were a number of signs …

Buy the dip!

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Monetary Armageddon ahead?

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Is the correction over?

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: On Monday, the major market averages successfully tested their 50 day moving averages (dma) and bounced. Does this mean that the correction is over? Not so fast. There are several indications that the market still has unresolved business on the downside for Monday’s test to be a durable bottom. First of all the SPX remains in a short-term …

Could “animal spirits” rescue the Trump rally?

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Three bottom spotting techniques for traders

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: Regular readers will know that I have been tactically cautious on the market for several weeks, but can the blogosphere please stop now with details of how many days it has been without a 1% decline?     The market fell -1.2% on Tuesday with no obvious catalyst. Despite today’s weak rally attempt, Urban Carmel pointed out …

Rate hikes ≠ The Apocalypse

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Sell St. Patrick’s Day?

In Free by Cam Hui

I hope that you are enjoying the stock market rally this week. My inner trader covered his short positions last week and stepped aside to await a better short re-entry point. St. Patrick’s Day may be it. Ryan Detrick pointed out that St. Patrick’s Day is one of the most positive days of the year, though as of the time of …

3 steps and a stumble: The bull and bear cases

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: It was no surprise that the Fed raised rates, as they had spent the last month widely telegraphing their intentions. This morning’s release of February CPI tells the story. Headline CPI is near a 5-year high. Though core CPI (ex-food and energy) edged down, the latest reading of 2.2% is above the Fed’s 2% targeted inflation rate. …

A toppy market, but not THE TOP

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …