Still no change: Just a sell signal set-up

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Waiting for the next market catalyst

Mid-week market update: What should investors make of the market reaction to the trade war drama? The S&P 500 remains range-bound. The bulls will argue that the index is on the verge of an upside breakout from a bull flag (dotted lines), which is a bullish continuation pattern. The bears will argue that momentum is...

Can the stock market vigilantes save the bull?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A long-term sell signal?

I warned last week about a possible long-term sell signal from my market timing indicator, but I wasn’t willing to front run my models as the month hadn’t ended yet. Now it’s happened. A long-term sell signal has been triggered.   As a reminder, this long-term timing indicator buys when the monthly MACD (bottom panel)...

Waiting for the gaps to fill

Mid-week market update: I know that I expected market volatility, but I didn’t expect the immediate source of volatility to be anxiety over DeepSeek. I should have known better when my physiotherapist, who didn’t know I worked in finance, started to talk about NVIDIA this week.   You can tell a lot about the character...

Tips on navigating the post-inauguration rally

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Two key risks to the bull that no one is talking about

The S&P 500 has been in a steady uptrend for over two years and it just staged an upside breakout to an all-time high. It may seem counterintuitive to be discussing the risks of a major market top, but I am seeing some early warnings that few analysts are paying attention to.      ...

The Trump Put lives!

Mid-week market update: Trump promised a flurry of executive orders to implement his campaign promises on the first day he took office. Amidst the flurry, the market breathed a sigh of relief as there were no major risk-off catalysts. The market is apolitical and it doesn’t care about the reversal of DEI policies, or whether...

What a changing of the guard means for stocks

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Trump 2025 market = Reagan 1981?

There are many remarkable similarities between the 1980–1981 stock market pattern and today. Ronald Reagan was elected in November 1980 amidst a wave of partisan enthusiasm and ushered in a revolution, much like Trump. Reagan entered office with a foreign policy win, which was the release of the American hostages held by Iran. Trump enters...

What an actual bond market catastrophe looks like

Mid-week market update: Is the bond market tantrum over?   Here is the good news. In the wake of tame PPI and CPI reports this week, the 30-year Treasury yield retreated while in a resistance zone (top panel). In addition, there is nothing worse than a failed breakout. The second panel shows the inflation factor...

What’s rattling the stock market?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A tale of two markets

Mid-week market update: When we last left the stock market on the weekend, the bulls were given a homework assignment (see A failed Santa rally, what now?).   The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 had to stage upside breakout through the falling dotted trend line. While the S&P 500 briefly broke out, it retreated yesterday...

A failed Santa rally, now what?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Contrarian bargains among Santa’s discards

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

The darker meaning of the Hindenburg Omen

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A Hindenburg Omen in an oversold market

Mid-week market update: What happens when an ominously sounding Hindenburg Omen occurs when the market is oversold? David Keller described the three components of the Hindenburg Omen in an article: The market has to be in an established uptrend; Market breadth becomes highly bifurcated, as measured by the expansion of new highs and new lows;...

Could a hawkish rate cut rattle markets?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Here comes the end-of-year positioning season

Mid-week market update: We are entering the time of year when investors and traders position themselves for the end of the year. These conditions have made it more challenging for anyone trying to trade based on conventional technical analysis.   The most obvious is tax loss selling, when investors harvest losses to offset their (likely)...