How far can Tariff Man dent the stock market?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Assessing the technical damage

Mid-week market update: The stock market weakened on Monday when Trump's early morning tweet indicated that he was slapping on steel and aluminum tariffs on Argentina and Brazil. The sell-off continued into Tuesday when Trump said in a news conference that he was in no hurry to do a trade deal with China, and he...

The Achilles Heel of my bull case

In response to my last post (see Buy signal confirmed: It's a global bull), I received an email yesterday from a long-time reader who observed that I was channeling the perennially bullish Chris Ciovacco. While my post yesterday highlighted the monthly MACD buy signal on global stocks, Ciovacco's latest weekly video referenced the monthly MACD buy...

Buy signal confirmed: It’s a global bull

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Short-term risks are rising

Mid-week market update: Even though I remain constructive on the intermediate term market outlook, short-term risks are rising. The VIX Index fell below its lower Bollinger Band on Monday, which is an indication of an overbought market. In addition, the index is flashing a negative divergence on its 5-day RSI.     Historical study Here...

Cyclical global recovery: Easy come, easy go?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Could this FOMO surge be a mirage?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

A correction in price, or time?

Mid-week market update: What to make of today's market? It is obviously overbought. The 14-day RSI is skirting the 70 level, which defines an overbought condition and that has been the reading at which past advances have temporarily stalled. Arguably, the 5-day RSI is flashing a series of "good overbought" conditions indicating strong price momentum,...

How far can stock prices rise?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Market nearing the stall zone

Mid-week market update: Don't get me wrong, I am still bullish. The Wilshire 5000 flashed an important MACD buy signal on the monthly chart at the end of October. While MACD sell signals have been hit-and-miss, buy signals have historically resolved themselves in strong gains with minimal drawdowns.     The MSCI World xUS Index...

Buy the breakout, recession risk limited

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Any more precautionary cuts?

Mid-week market update: Now that the Fed has cut rates a third time, and the upside breakout in the SPX and NDX are holding, what's next?     Are the series of precautionary cuts over?   Dissecting the rate cut Now that Brexit risks have subsided, and trade tensions are receding as the US and...

An upcoming seismic shift in factor returns

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

SPX 3000 round number-itis

Mid-week market update: At week ago, I identified two technical triangle formations to watch (see Why small caps are lagging (and what it means)). Since then, both the SPX and NDX have struggled at key resistance levels despite a generally positive news background of earnings beats, and now they have moved sideways through a rising...

The stealth decoupling sneaking up on portfolios

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Why small caps are lagging (and what it means)

Mid-week market update: One of the investing puzzles that has appeared in the last few months is the mystery of small cap underperformings. The USD Index has been strong over the last three months, which should create an earnings headwind for large cap multi-nationals with foreign operations. Instead, the relative performance of megacaps have been...

A market beating Trend Model, and what it’s saying now

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Whatever happened to the Momentum Massacre?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...