The bear market rally stalls

Mid-week market update: The bear market rally appears to have stalled at the first Fibonacci resistance level of 2650. The bulls also failed to stage an upside breakout through the falling trend line. Instead, it broke down through the (dotted) rising trend line, indicating the bears had taken control of the tape.     Deteriorating...

The dawn of a new bull?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

The makings of a primary low

Mid-week market update: Did the Economist do it again with another contrarian magazine cover indicator? At the top of the market, their issue cover was entitled "Big tech's $2trn bull run". Last weekend, their cover featured a "closed" sign on the earth. The market staged an upside breakout through a falling trend line yesterday, and...

This is insane! Where’s the bear market rally?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Where’s the bottom?

There is little question that the stock market is wildly oversold. My intermediate term bottom spotting model has been flashing a buy signal for over a week. This signal is based on the combination of an oversold signal on the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicators, and the NYSE McClellan Summation Index (NYSI) turning negative. In the...

So bad, it’s good?

Mid-week market update: This bear market has astonishing in its ferocity, but we may be reaching the it's so bad things are good point. Here are some "green shoots" that are starting to show up. Baron Rothchild was famously quoted as saying, "The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets, even...

2020 bounce = 1987, or 1929?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Testing the lows

Mid-week market update: My last post (see OK, I'm calling it) in which I called a recession received a lot of attention. As recessions tend to be bull market killers, the challenge for investors and traders is to manage their investments during a recessionary bear market. In the short run, the SPX is testing the...

OK, I’m calling it…

While I may be jumping the gun on my model readings, I'm calling a recession. Remember when oil prices tanked in the second half of 2014? The economy experienced a shallow industrial recession in 2015.     While history doesn't repeat but rhymes, the price war that erupted over the weekend between Russia and OPEC...

A stock market roller coaster

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Waiting for the re-test

Mid-week market update: The hourly SPX chart shows that the index rallied strongly on Monday. The rally filled two downside gaps and it is testing the 50% retracement level..     While many of the short-term models are screaming "buy", there are contrary indicators and models that suggest caution. Even though my inner trader has largely...

Panic City!

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

In search of a market bottom

Mid-week market update: After two consecutive days where the market was down over 3%, I am seeing numerous statistical studies that suggest either an imminent oversold bounce, or a sentiment washout. One example is this analysis from Nomura, as published by Marketwatch.     Has the sell-off bottomed?   The short-term outlook There are two...

Correction ahead?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Don’t count on a V-shaped recovery

The covid-19 coronavirus outbreak is a human tragedy, just like Ebola, MERS, and SARS. For investors, it has an economic impact. Even before the outbreak, world merchandise trade volume had been falling. New data is likely to show that the outbreak disrupted global supply chains sufficiently to further depress global trade. The market consensus initially...

How to trade a frothy momentum market

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

The guerrilla war against the PBOC

The enemy advances, we retreat In the wake of the news of the coronavirus infection, the Chinese leadership went into overdrive and made it a Draghi-like "whatever it takes" moment to prevent panic and stabilize markets. When the stock markets opened after the Lunar New Year break, the authorities prohibited short sales, directed large shareholders...

Why the market is rallying on fear – Yes, Fear!

Mid-week market update: What should investors do when faced with competing narratives and historical studies with opposite conclusions? The major market indices made another all-time high today. Ryan Detrick pointed out that ATHs tend to be bullish. That's because of the price momentum effect that is in force which propels stock prices to new highs....