The stealth breakout you may have missed

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Waiting for the recycle amidst an elevated tail-risk backdrop

Mid-week market update: Marketwatch recently highlighted analysis from NDR which concluded that sentiment was extended and while it may make sense to be cautious about adding risk, it’s too early to turn tactically bearish until readings recycle from an overbought condition.     I agree. I’ve been saying the same thing for several weeks. A...

A Hindenburg Moment for growth stocks?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Mind the gaps

Mid-week market update: In the short run, how the market reacts after price gaps can be important clues to market psychology and direction. How quickly the market fills a gap is a measure of either strength or weakness.   As accompanying hourly chart of the S&P 500 shows, we have price gaps everywhere (upside gaps...

How to trade the YOLO and FOMO market

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

How extended is this market?

Mid-week market update: I have said before that the stock market is extended in its advance and it could pull back at any time. How extended? Here is another metric.   Bollinger Bands (BB) are overbought/oversold indicators. If a stock or index rises above its 2 standard deviation BB. it is said to be overbought....

Did the NVIDIA-fueled rally exhaust the bulls?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

NVIDIA at the bat

Mid-week market update: The poem “Casey at the Bat” may represent an apt analogy for today’s stock market (see Wikipedia entry if you’re unfamiliar with it). Technical warnings signs had been appearing. The S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100, and the Semiconductors Index, which is a bellwether for AI-related plays, had all weakened and violated their...

Are negative divergences necessarily bearish?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Why this AI bull is nothing like the NASDAQ in 2000

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Correction imminent?

Mid-week market update: I am sure everyone has seen the breadth divergences. Even as the S&P 500 rises to all-time highs, different versions of the Advance-Decline Line are struggling. Breadth deterioration is evident the further down you go in market capitalization.     The breadth divergence can also be observed in falling correlations between stocks...

Get ready to buy in May…

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

I told you there would be volatility

Mid-week market update: I told you that there would be volatility (see Numerous wildcards add up to ST volatility). In light of signs of stretched positioning, the prudent course of action for traders is to step to the sidelines.     Here are the different sources of volatility that are buffeting the markets.    ...

Numerous wildcards add up to ST volatility

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

What are the contagion effects of China’s wipeout?

The problems keep piling up in China. Weakening demographics, as her population shrank for a second consecutive year. Weak consumer spending. A record property downturn. Rising trade tensions.   The drip-drip-drip of these glitches culminated in a massive stock market wipeout as over US$6 trillion has been wiped from the combined capitalization of the Chinese...

The market’s upper BB roller coaster ride

Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 has been riding its upper Bollinger Band. Historically, upper BB rides haven't been all that bearish, but the current episode is occurring against a backdrop of negative RSI divergences.      While the S&P 500 may be on an upper BB ride, it promises to be a roller coaster....

Exhausted bears, tiring bulls

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...