The Dollar tail wagging the market dog

Mid-week market update: Here at Humble Student of the Markets, we believe that investors can gain great insight through the use of inter-market, or cross asset market, analysis. During this period of heightened trade tensions and emerging market stress, it is the US Dollar that is driving risk appetite, and the direction of stock prices....

The macro risks that keep me awake at night

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

On the verge of a “good overbought” rally, or market stall?

Mid-week market update: As the market broke out through the round number 2900 level, I am indebted to Urban Carmel and others for pointing out that the index is testing a key uptrend line.     There are a number of common elements of the current market conditions to past tests of the uptrend: By...

10 or more technical reasons to be cautious on stocks

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Why positive breadth won’t help the bull case

Mid-week market update: There was a lot of skepticism in response to my last post (see How many pennies left in front of the steamroller?). Much of it was related to comments relating to positive market breadth. I am in debt to Urban Carmel who pointed out back in May that the Advance-Decline Line tends to...

How many pennies are left in front of the steamroller?

A reader commented on the weekend, "TBH, being long here sure feels like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller". I agree. While I have been steadfast in my belief of a "Last Hurrah rally" before a significant market top, that scenario is looking far less likely. As the market tests a key resistance...

Could China take the baton if US growth falters?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Two gifts from the market gods

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Traders: Market stalling, but buy the dip

Mid-week market update: My inner trader remains constructive in his bullish view for stocks, but the recent advance appears to have gotten ahead of itself. My trading models indicate a 2-4 day period of weakness, followed by continued strength into all-time highs. In the short-term, the market is flashing cautionary signals for traders. The SPX...

Major top ahead? My inner investor turns cautious

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

The universe is unfolding as it should

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

How the equity bulls and bears may both be right

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Tariffs to the left, tariffs to the right…Contrarians buy China!

The news about the Sino-American trade war seems to get worse every day. Callum Thomas pointed out that corporate managements are increasingly raising concerns about rising tariffs.     Chinese stocks have cratered, along with the stock indices of China's largest Asian trading partners. However, a couple of contrarian buy signals are appearing. First, trade...

The surprising conclusion from sector leadership analysis

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Wall Street: Where the Wild Things are

Mid-week market update: There is a children's book called Where The Wild Things Are by Maurice Sendak that stands as a metaphor for the stock market's action. Here is a summary from Wikipedia: This story of only 338 words focuses on a young boy named Max who, after dressing in his wolf costume, wreaks such havoc through...

Trade War Apocalypse, or Sell the rumor, Buy the news?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...