Mid-week market update: I have been calling for a relief rally, followed by a deeper correction (see Why I am both bullish and bearish). The relief rally seems to have arrived as the S&P 500 breached the upper trend line of a falling channel while exhibiting improvements in new 52-week high breadth. How...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 became extremely stretched in mid-June when its 14-week RSI exceeded the 90 level. The last two times this happened, the market eventually pulled back and the initial decline was arrested with RSI reached a neutral reading of 50. That 50 target was reached this week, which I interpret as...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I have been calling for a period of consolidation and pullback and that phase of the market seems to have arrived. As the S&P 500 weakened and the VIX Index spiked above its upper Bollinger Band, indicating a short-term oversold condition, this stock market has been remarkably resilient. The 5-day RSI traced...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
It’s finally happened. The monthly MACD of the NYSE Composite turned positive at the end of July. This has been a reliable long-term buy signal in the past. The sell rule in this model is a negative 14-month divergences. In the words of Ronald Reagan when he was negotiating an arms control treaty...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend that my monthly MACD model was “On the verge of a long-term buy signal”. The good news is the stock market rose enough on Monday, which was the last day of July, to eke out a buy signal condition. The bad news is the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Is the soft landing here? Wall Street strategists have been racing to reduce their recession odds in the last week. More importantly, Fed Chair Powell revealed during the post-FOMC meeting press conference that Fed staff had upgraded its forecast from a mild recession in H2 2023 to no recession. In the past few weeks,...
Mid-week market update: The market reaction to the FOMC decision was mostly a yawn. The Fed raised rates by a quarter-point, which was expected, and Powell refused to commit to further hikes while repeating his data dependency mantra. As a consequence, the S&P 500 was mostly unchanged from before the decision to after the close....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: It finally happened. The NASDAQ 100 is being re-weighted in order to address “concentration risk” (full details here). It was a belated decision in response to narrow market leadership, but the problem seems to have moderated on its own. Large-cap technology stocks, which had been on a tear, stalled against the S&P...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Geopolitical risks are rising and it remains to be seen how the market reacts to geopolitical stress. On the weekend, I made the following tweet. Those fears are becoming more real. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated in a tweet, "Now we have information from our intelligence that the Russian military has placed...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 daily stochastic recycled from overbought to neutral last week and stock prices pulled back. Initial support can be found at about 4320, with secondary support at about 4200, which is also the approximate level of the 50 dma. Can 4320 hold? Signs of weakness I am seeing...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 reached an overbought extreme on the 5-week RSI after nearing the top of an ascending channel and it appears to be in the process of pulling back. In the past, such extreme RSI conditions has seen the market rally stall. There is a strong support zone at about 4200,...
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