Check out our out-of-sample track record:


A correction, not a bear June 2013
A buy signal from the option market September 2013
Are stocks tumbling too far too fast? January 2014
Global growth scare = Trend Model downgrade July 2014
Onwards and upwards August 2014
3 reasons to get more cautious on stocks September 2014
Getting close to a bottom, but not yet October 2014
Why I am bearish (and what would change my mind) May 2015
Relax, have a glass of wine August 2015
Why this is not the start of a bear market September 2015
The reason why the bulls should be cautious about a January hangover December 2015
Buy! Blood is in the Streets January 2016
Super Tuesday special: How President Trump could spark a market blow-off March 2016
How the S&P 500 can get to 2200 and beyond June 2016
Embrace the blow-off (but with a stop loss discipline November 2017
Out of words for ‘extreme’ and ‘unprecedented’ January 2018
Five reasons not to worry (plus 2 concerns) February 2018

Also see our past work on big picture macro analysis

Mario Draghi reveals the Grand Plan The eurozone Grand Plan for reforms – this has been the road map all along, ignore at your own peril
China turns Japanese? The long-term challenges to China’s growth outlook
Inequality and the genetic lottery: Two views How the Left is both right and wrong on inequality
More evidence of a low return outlook Elevated valuations are pressuring long-term returns
A new golden age of demographic growth Expect a demographic tailwind for stocks and real estate by the end of this decade

…on quantitative analysis

Examining your assumptions: The Fundamental Law of Active Management Using Grinold’s Law of Active Management in real life
The limitations of Altman Z Why the Altman Z-Score doesn’t work in all cases of solvency analysis

…on investment policy and financial planning

The ABCs of financial planning Investment policy and asset-liability management concepts
Investment policy: Not just for pension funds Why you need an investment policy statement

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