Insiders are buying, should you jump into stocks?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Tricks or treats for equities?

Mid-week market update: Will investors get tricks or treats this Halloween?   Here is the good news. The sentiment backdrop was sufficiently washed-out for a reflex rally to occur. For some perspective, I refer readers to Helene Meisler's recent Real Money article: Long time readers know I am not known for my sunny disposition when it...

How this Bear could be wrong: Exploring the bull case

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Defensive and Value leadership = Bear market?

Mid-week market update: I am publishing my mid-week market update early in light of the recent market volatility. I use the Relative Rotation Graphs, or RRG charts, as the primary tool for the analysis of sector and style leadership. As an explanation, RRG charts are a way of depicting the changes in leadership in different...

The brewing storm in Asia

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Tops are processes: Here is why

I received a ton of comments after yesterday's post (see A correction, or the start of a bear market?), probably because of the tumultuous nature of last week's market action. Readers pointed out a number of buy and sell signals that I had missed in yesterday's post and asked me to comment on them. (Rather...

A correction, or the start of a bear market?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Has the correction bottomed? What’s next?

Mid-week market update: Is the correction over? At least my inner trader had been positioned for market weakness. Subscribers who had been following my inner trader, you know that we issued real-time alerts to buy the market on September 12, 2018 and flipped short on September 21, 2018. (You can subscribe here if you haven't done so).  ...

The calm before the storm?

Notwithstanding today's NAFTA USMCA driven reflex rally today, one puzzle to this market is the remarkable level of complacency in the face of potential market moving events, such as a trade war. From a technical perspective, complacency can be seen through the historically low level of weekly Bollinger Band on the VIX Index, which has...

10 or more technical reasons to be cautious on stocks

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Why positive breadth won’t help the bull case

Mid-week market update: There was a lot of skepticism in response to my last post (see How many pennies left in front of the steamroller?). Much of it was related to comments relating to positive market breadth. I am in debt to Urban Carmel who pointed out back in May that the Advance-Decline Line tends to...

How many pennies are left in front of the steamroller?

A reader commented on the weekend, "TBH, being long here sure feels like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller". I agree. While I have been steadfast in my belief of a "Last Hurrah rally" before a significant market top, that scenario is looking far less likely. As the market tests a key resistance...

Could China take the baton if US growth falters?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

How far can stock prices fall in a bear market?

One of the most frequently asked questions from last week's post (see Major market top ahead: My inner investor turns cautious) was my downside objective for stock prices. While technical analysis could highlight a possible trigger for a bear phase, it is less reliable for quantifying downside risk. Assuming the trigger for a bear market is...

Two gifts from the market gods

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Traders: Market stalling, but buy the dip

Mid-week market update: My inner trader remains constructive in his bullish view for stocks, but the recent advance appears to have gotten ahead of itself. My trading models indicate a 2-4 day period of weakness, followed by continued strength into all-time highs. In the short-term, the market is flashing cautionary signals for traders. The SPX...

Major top ahead? My inner investor turns cautious

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...