Deconstructing the institutional pain trade

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

How I learned to stop worrying and love rising rates

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

Why I am not ready to call a market top

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

How much does 3% matter to stocks?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

Is good news now good news, or bad news?

Mid-week market update: What should we make of the stock market now that the 10-year Treasury yield has breached the 3% level? Should we pay attention to the JPM Asset Management historical analysis which stated, "When yields are below 5%, rising rates have historically been associated with rising stock prices"?     Should we pay...

Don’t miss the eurozone revival!

Remember my post, Opportunity from Brexit turmoil? I suggested on February 22, 2018 that we were seeing a setup for a long trade in UK equities. Brexit political chaos was reaching a crescendo, and there was a chance that we may see another referendum where the Remainers could prevail. Since then, while there is no...

Trade war jitters fade, but for how long?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

Time for a pause in the bulls’ charge

Mid-week market update: Don't get me wrong, I am still bullish, but the stock market rally appear a little extended in the short run and due for a brief period of consolidation. The SPX broke out from its inverse head and shoulders (IHS) pattern this week, cleared its 50 day moving average (dma), and filled...

A bottoming process

Mid-week market update: As the market bounces around in reaction to the headline of the day, it is important to maintain some perspective and see the underlying trend. Numerous sentiment and technical indicators are pointing towards a bottoming process and a bullish intermediate term outlook. Day-to-day price movements, on the other hand, are hard to...

Watch the Fed, not the trade war noise

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

Is this what a regime change looks like?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

Technicians nervous, fundamentalists shrug

Mid-week market update: Both my social media feed and the my questions this week have a jittery tone. Will the 200 day moving average (dma) hold as the SPX tests this important support level? What sectors or groups could step up to become the next market leaders if technology stocks falter? Callum Thomas of Topdown...

When the story changes…

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

A test of bullish resolve

Mid-week market update: Last weekend, I wrote that while I was intermediate term bullish, I expected some equity market weakness early in the week. The hourly RSI-5 had exceeded 90, which is an extremely overbought reading, which was not sustainable. Even during the January melt-up, such episodes resolved themselves with either a pullback or sideways...

Will diversified portfolios be doomed in the next recession?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

Tariff Tantrum, or Trade War Apocalypse?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

The animal spirits are back, but which ones?

Mid-week market update: Just when the V-shaped bottom was becoming evident, something comes along and derails that train. The SPX decisively blasted through its 61.8% retracement resistance levels on Monday, but saw a bearish outside reversal day Tuesday, and the market continued to weaken.   After the panic bottom in February, it appears that the...

No, Mr. Bond, I expect you to die

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Powell Fed: Market wildcard

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Five reasons not to worry (plus 2 concerns)

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...