Will the real Q1 GDP please stand up?

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

The US Q1 GDP report is scheduled to be released Friday morning. Current expectations call for a Q/Q growth rate of 1.1%, but there are wide disparities in nowcasts. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast of Q1 GDP growth has been declining since late February and stands at a meager 0.5%.     By contrast, the New York Fed’s nowcast has ...
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Buy! The party is still going strongly

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset ...
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Buy the dip!

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Monetary Armageddon ahead?

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Could “animal spirits” rescue the Trump rally?

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Rate hikes ≠ The Apocalypse

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

3 steps and a stumble: The bull and bear cases

In Free by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: It was no surprise that the Fed raised rates, as they had spent the last month widely telegraphing their intentions. This morning’s release of February CPI tells the story. Headline CPI is near a 5-year high. Though core CPI (ex-food and energy) edged down, the latest reading of 2.2% is above the Fed’s 2% targeted inflation rate. …

To BAT or not to BAT? Trump’s tax reform dilemma

In Free by Cam Hui

As the market awaits the FOMC decision and statement this week, there are a number of other critical market moving events to watch for. The Trump White House is expected to release its “skinny budget” this week, which may contain some broad outlines of the tax reform package. In addition, Angela Merkel’s White House visit Tuesday could bring important news …

Why I am cautious on the market

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Brace for a volatility spike

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Solving the data puzzle at the center of monetary policy

In Free by Cam Hui

There has been much hand wringing by economists over the falling labor force participation rate (LFPR). As the chart below shows, the prime age LFPR, which is not affected by the age demographic effect of retiring Baby Boomers, have not recovered to levels before the Great Recession.     The lack of recovery in LFPR has caused great consternation over …

Watch what they do, not just what they say

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Cry Havoc, and slip loose the dogs of (trade) war!

In Free by Cam Hui

The WSJ reported that the Trump administration is considering a new tactic in managing its trade relationship with China. Here is the Bloomberg recap for those without a WSJ subscription: Under the plan, the commerce secretary would designate the practice of currency manipulation as an unfair subsidy when employed by any country, instead of singling out China, the newspaper reported. …

Forget politics! Here are the 5 key macro indicators of Trump’s political fortunes

In Free by Cam Hui

Wow, Trump’s political honeymoon didn’t last very long! In the past few days, there have been numerous objections of Trump’s Executive Orders. I’ll spare you the details of the protests and demonstrations, particularly from the Left. What stood out were the objections from the Right and within the GOP. As an example, Eliot Cohen, who served under Condeleeza Rice, fretted about …

A focus on growth

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Main Street bulls vs. Washington bears

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Good news, bad news from the December Jobs Report

In Free by Cam Hui

I had been meaning to write about the December Jobs Report, which was released last Friday, but I hadn’t gotten around to it. The report had elements of both good news and bad news. The good news is the December report showed a solid market. True, the headline Non-Farm Payroll figure missed market expectations, but November was revised upwards, and …

The bear case: How Trumponomics keeps me awake at night

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which …

How Trumponomics could push the S&P 500 to 2500+

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …

Trump makes stocks great again (for now)

In Free by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset …