Why this isn’t your father’s recession (and how to profit from it)

There is a growing acceptance among investors that the global economy is sliding into recession. S&P Global, which was formerly known as IHS Markit, reported:   The global manufacturing PMI survey’s Output Index, which acts as a reliable advance indicator of actual worldwide output trends several months ahead of comparable official data (see chart 2),...

What if the market bottomed and no one realized it?

It's stunning how market psychology has changed. In the space of a few months, we've swung from "everyone is bullish" to "everyone is bearish". These results from the BoA Global Fund Manager Survey were done in early June and sentiment has likely deteriorated since then.     The good news is the market is becoming...

The seven reasons why this cycle is different

One of the key risks to the stock market is earnings expectations. As recession risk rises, it has been unusual to see forward 12-month EPS estimates continue to rise. The latest update finally shows that earnings expectations are beginning to stall. S&P 500 estimates are flat for the week, up a miniscule 0.01, while small-cap...

Bullish omens from the factor gods

Recession fears are rising everywhere, both on Wall Street and in Washington. Fed eonomist Michael T. Kiley formulated a recession model based on unemployment rates. The probability of a recession over the next four quarters is now over 50%, but the economy has never avoided a recession when readings were this high.     The...

A market bottom checklist update

Mid-week market update: For several weeks, sentiment surveys such as AAII and Investors Intelligence have signaled extreme levels of bearishness seen at past market bottoms. However, some observers have played down the sentiment surveys because indications of positioning are inconsistent with extreme fear. As an example, funds are still pouring into the Cathie Wood's Ark...

Profit opportunities in the coming global recession

Welcome to the coming global recession. We can debate all day about the global growth outlook, but consider this: Global Manufacturing PMI has fallen to 48.5, indicating contraction. It's the first negative reading since the COVID Crash of 2020.     The signs of deceleration have been confirmed by the G10 Economic Surprise Index, which...

Peak hawkishness = Risk-on?

The Economist is becoming known as a source of the contrarian magazine cover indicator. As the world holds its collective breath for the FOMC decision next week, the recent cover of the magazine begs a number of important questions for investors. How far beyond the inflation-fighting curve is the Fed? What are the likely policy...

How to time the recession stock market bottom

Recession fears have arrived on Main Street. From a statistical perspective, Google searches for "recession" have spiked.     From an anecdotal perspective, recession talk has emerged as the talk of the party.     These conditions beg three crucial questions for investors: Will there be a recession? If so, how much of the slowdown...

US equity investors are playing with fire

In bull markets, valuation generally doesn`t matter very much unless it reaches a nosebleed extreme, such as the NASDAQ Bubble. In bear markets, valuation defines the downside risk in equity prices.   As the Powell Fed has signaled it is dead set on a hawkish policy that does not preclude inducing a recession, valuation will...

Imagining War and Peace

The Russia-Ukraine war has dealt an unexpected shock to the global economy and markets. Even as the world began an uneven recovery from the COVID Crash of 2020 and inflation pressures began to rise, the war has spiked geopolitical risk premiums and exacerbated supply chain difficulties and added more inflationary pressures. From an economic perspective,...

How to spot a market bottom

Did the stock market make a meaningful bottom last week? Financial markets had been taking a risk-off tone coming into the week, but when the Powell Fed was slightly more hawkish than expected, the market rallied.    The S&P 500 was -14.6% peak-to-trough on an intraday basis in 2022. Ed Clissold of Ned Davis Research pointed...

Not your father’s commodity bull

Some chartists have recently become excited over the commodity outlook. Setting aside the headline-driven rise in oil prices, the long-term chart of industrial metals like copper looks bullish. Copper is tracing out a cup-and-handle pattern breakout that targets strong gains in the years ahead. Moreover, the one-and the two-year rate of change, which is designed...

An energy and geopolitical recession?

Much has happened in the space of a week. In the wake of Russia's Ukrainian invasion, the West has responded with a series of tough sanctions designed to tank the Russian economy. Energy and other commodity prices have soared and this is shaping up to be another energy and geopolitical crisis. The last three episodes...

Can the Fed engineer a soft landing?

Stock market pullbacks happen. The normal equity risk of pullbacks is the price investors pay for better long-term performance. But a recent analysis by Oxford Economics found that the average S&P 500 pullback during non-recessionary periods is -15.4% and -36% during recessions.     Here is why this matters for equity investors. The recent peak-to-trough...

A recession in 2023?

The Fed has spoken by pivoting to a more hawkish trajectory for monetary policy. The FOMC announced that it is doubling the scale of its QE taper, which puts the program on track to end in March. The December median dot-plots show that Fed officials expect three quarter-point rate hikes in 2022 and three quarter-point...