Trade War Apocalypse, or Sell the rumor, Buy the news?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

A looming global recession, or buying opportunity?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Can America still lead the world?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Don’t miss the eurozone revival!

Remember my post, Opportunity from Brexit turmoil? I suggested on February 22, 2018 that we were seeing a setup for a long trade in UK equities. Brexit political chaos was reaching a crescendo, and there was a chance that we may see another referendum where the Remainers could prevail. Since then, while there is no...

Be careful what you wish for: Catalan independence edition

The situation in Catalonia is a mess. Catalan frustrations are understandable. The region is the most prosperous of all in Spain, and shares similar characteristics as norther Italy to the rest of Italy, or North Rhine-Westphia and Bavaria to Germany.     Here at Humble Student of the Markets, we try not to take political...

Correction is over, wait for the blow-off top

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Looking for froth in the wrong places

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

U-S-A! U-S-A!

Mid-week market update: Having reviewed sector rotation last week (see More evidence of an emerging reflationary rebound), it is time to apply the same analysis to countries and regions. First, let's start with a primer of our analytic tool. Relative Rotation Graphs, or RRG charts, are a way of depicting the changes in leadership in...

Long live the reflation trade!

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

When does the market top out?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Two elections, two questions for investors

In the past week, two key elections have been held that have important geopolitical, economic, and investment implications. First, remember this Time magazine cover? I indicated on February 6, 2017 that the cover may have marked Peak populism.     I suggested at the time to buy France and sell Germany as a pairs trade....

The miracle of Europe

Here in Canada, we are observing the 100 year commemoration of the participation of Canadian troops in the Battle of Vimy Ridge. While the Canadian Corp achieved its objectives of capturing the ridge, it was a typical battle of the First World War that left enormous casualties for both sides.     After the horrific...

Monetary Armageddon ahead?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

The Italian referendum = Next populist domino?

Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group recently tweeted the following political calendar in Europe. After the surprising Trump win, the market is closely watching for electoral surprises. Next up is the Italian referendum on December 4, 2016, in which PM Matteo Renzi has asked for revisions to the constitution in order to break the endless...

Going on recession watch, but don’t panic!

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Silver linings in Europe’s political dark clouds

As the American elections approach their final denouement in two weeks, it's time to look ahead to a number of political dark clouds forming in Europe. FT Alphaville recently highlighted research from Barclay's showing the collapse in support of establishment parties around the world.   The support for anti-establishment and protest parties and candidates have been...

If Deutsche = Lehman, then Greek banks = ?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

A second chance on Europe

About three weeks ago, I wrote about opportunities in European equities (see Worried about US equities? Here's an alternative!). I pointed out that stock prices in Europe were far cheaper than US, the fears about European integrity and financial system were overblown, and the market seemed to be ignoring signs of a growth recovery. Since...