Remember my post, Opportunity from Brexit turmoil? I suggested on February 22, 2018 that we were seeing a setup for a long trade in UK equities. Brexit political chaos was reaching a crescendo, and there was a chance that we may see another referendum where the Remainers could prevail. Since then, while there is no...
The situation in Catalonia is a mess. Catalan frustrations are understandable. The region is the most prosperous of all in Spain, and shares similar characteristics as norther Italy to the rest of Italy, or North Rhine-Westphia and Bavaria to Germany. Here at Humble Student of the Markets, we try not to take political...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Having reviewed sector rotation last week (see More evidence of an emerging reflationary rebound), it is time to apply the same analysis to countries and regions. First, let's start with a primer of our analytic tool. Relative Rotation Graphs, or RRG charts, are a way of depicting the changes in leadership in...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
In the past week, two key elections have been held that have important geopolitical, economic, and investment implications. First, remember this Time magazine cover? I indicated on February 6, 2017 that the cover may have marked Peak populism. I suggested at the time to buy France and sell Germany as a pairs trade....
Here in Canada, we are observing the 100 year commemoration of the participation of Canadian troops in the Battle of Vimy Ridge. While the Canadian Corp achieved its objectives of capturing the ridge, it was a typical battle of the First World War that left enormous casualties for both sides. After the horrific...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Boy, was I wrong. Two weeks ago, I wrote Why the S&P 500 won't get to 2400 (in this rally). Despite today's market strength, stock prices may be restrained by a case of round number-itis as the Dow crosses the 21,000 mark and the SPX tests the 2,400 level. In addition, the market's...
Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group recently tweeted the following political calendar in Europe. After the surprising Trump win, the market is closely watching for electoral surprises. Next up is the Italian referendum on December 4, 2016, in which PM Matteo Renzi has asked for revisions to the constitution in order to break the endless...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
As the American elections approach their final denouement in two weeks, it's time to look ahead to a number of political dark clouds forming in Europe. FT Alphaville recently highlighted research from Barclay's showing the collapse in support of establishment parties around the world. The support for anti-establishment and protest parties and candidates have been...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: From a trader`s perspective, this market had been jittery and mainly driven by two themes. The first was the resolution of the uncertainty over the presidential debate that occurred Monday night. The other is the uncertainty over the fate of Deutsche Bank as a symptom of the systemic risk posed by European...
About three weeks ago, I wrote about opportunities in European equities (see Worried about US equities? Here's an alternative!). I pointed out that stock prices in Europe were far cheaper than US, the fears about European integrity and financial system were overblown, and the market seemed to be ignoring signs of a growth recovery. Since...
I am seeing an unusual level of rising anxiety over the political implications of Brexit. Last week, Stratfor published a report entitled "Brexit: The First of Many Referendum Threats to the EU", which detailed the threats of additional referendums to the future of Europe. Jim Rogers, writing in the Daily Reckoning, also painted a dire...
I have a suggestion for value oriented investors who are uncomfortable with my market blow-off thesis for US equities (see How to get in on the ground floor of a market bubble and Get ready for the melt-up). What about buying Europe? Valuation metrics for European stocks are certainly cheaper. The SP 500 trades at a price...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
