The miracle of Europe

Here in Canada, we are observing the 100 year commemoration of the participation of Canadian troops in the Battle of Vimy Ridge. While the Canadian Corp achieved its objectives of capturing the ridge, it was a typical battle of the First World War that left enormous casualties for both sides.     After the horrific...

The Trump presidency: A glass half-full

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Treasury holdings as a political weapon?

Imagine the following scene in the not too distant future: The US Navy confronts the PLAN (People's Liberation Army Navy) in the South China Sea. Someone miscalculates and shooting starts and the situation escalates wildly. Eventually, there are three American carrier task forces, accompanied by submarines, along with the fleets of Asian allies like the...

Investment insights when giving thanks

In Canada, we had our Thanksgiving a month ago (because the growing season is shorter and it makes no sense to have Thanksgiving in November when it's freezing in much of the country). Nevertheless, in the spirit of American Thanksgiving, I reflected on what to give thanks about. In light of the events in Paris...