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Defying gravity

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui - February 20, 2019

Mid-week market update: For the last few weeks, I have been writing about a possible market stall ahead (see Peering into 2020 and beyond). So far, the pullback has yet to materialize, though risk levels continue to rise as the SPX approaches its resistance zone at 2800-2810. Here are some reasons why the...

China is healing

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui - February 18, 2019

Recent top-down data out of China has been weak (see How worried should you be about China?), but there are some signs of healing as the latest round of stimulus kicks in. Real-time signs of recovery While Chinese economic statistics can be fudged, real-time indicators are pointing to signs of recovery. Firstly, the...

Peering into 2020 and beyond

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui - February 17, 2019

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Also see our past work on big picture macro analysis

Mario Draghi reveals the Grand Plan The eurozone Grand Plan for reforms – this has been the road map all along, ignore at your own peril
China turns Japanese? The long-term challenges to China’s growth outlook
Inequality and the genetic lottery: Two views How the Left is both right and wrong on inequality
More evidence of a low return outlook Elevated valuations are pressuring long-term returns
A new golden age of demographic growth Expect a demographic tailwind for stocks and real estate by the end of this decade

…on quantitative analysis

Examining your assumptions: The Fundamental Law of Active Management Using Grinold’s Law of Active Management in real life
The limitations of Altman Z Why the Altman Z-Score doesn’t work in all cases of solvency analysis

…on investment policy and financial planning

The ABCs of financial planning Investment policy and asset-liability management concepts
Investment policy: Not just for pension funds Why you need an investment policy statement

Defying gravity

China is healing

Peering into 2020 and beyond

Also see our past work on big picture macro analysis

…on quantitative analysis

…on investment policy and financial planning

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