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How the market could break up to a blow-off top

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A pause isn’t a pivot

Now that the market has had over a week to absorb the implications of the last Fed rate decision and incoming data since the meeting, here is where we stand.   The Fed made an important change in its statement that hinted it was preparing to pause interest rate increases. Even though the Fed raised...