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The hidden story of investor capitulation

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Peering into 2023: A bear market roadmap

In the wake of the November FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell summarized Fed policy very clearly with two statements: “We will stay the course until the job is done”. He added, “It is very premature to think about pausing (rate hikes)”.   It was a hawkish message, though Fed Funds expectations were largely unchanged...