Defying gravity

Mid-week market update: For the last few weeks, I have been writing about a possible market stall ahead (see Peering into 2020 and beyond). So far, the pullback has yet to materialize, though risk levels continue to rise as the SPX approaches its resistance zone at 2800-2810.     Here are some reasons why the...

China is healing

Recent top-down data out of China has been weak (see How worried should you be about China?), but there are some signs of healing as the latest round of stimulus kicks in.     Real-time signs of recovery While Chinese economic statistics can be fudged, real-time indicators are pointing to signs of recovery. Firstly, the...

Peering into 2020 and beyond

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...