Mid-week market update: The animal spirits are back. Just look at the price action in Tesla. In this environment, it is no surprise that the stock market is embarking on a test of the old highs. Lines in the sand I had set out one line in the sand (see A key...
The website Zero Hedge has built a successful franchise on the internet highlighting bearish and market crash narratives with a series of half-truths, misinformation, and conspiracy theories. A recent screenshot of Zero Hedge headlines gives you an idea of their editorial bias. In other words, it occupies the supermarket tabloid niche of financial...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mark Hulbert made a terrific point last week. The coronavirus was not the real reason for the market sell-off. The real reason was excessively bullish sentiment. The coronavirus news was just the excuse. That real culprit is market sentiment: Short-term stock market timers, on balance, have been extraordinarily bullish for a couple of months now....
Mid-week market update: I am old enough to remember that one of the burning question for the January FOMC meeting was be whether the Fed would make a technical adjustment on Interest Paid on Excess Reserves (IOER) by 5 basis points. (They did). Those were simpler times! The stock market rose relentlessly, day after day,...
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