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A liquidation panic

I know that Friday’s CPI print was ugly, but it seems to have sparked a “correlations converging to 1” liquidation panic where everything is getting sold today. The good news is such panics usually don’t last long.   Several readers highlighted analysis from Rob Hanna of Quantifiable Edges of a rare Inverse Zweig Breadth Thrust....

The bears gain the upper hand

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

In search of the bullish catalyst

I have pointed out before that the last time the 10-year Treasury yield was at these levels, the S&P 500 was trading at a forward P/E of 14-16. The current forward P/E is 16.8, which is slightly above that range. In order for stock prices to rise, at least one of two things has to...