Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The latest FOMC statement and subsequent press conference were full of references to “uncertainty”. Most notably, the FOMC statement changed the language related to the Fed’s goals being “roughly in balance” to “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased”. Not only is uncertainty elevated, but also the risks to inflation, GDP growth and...
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