Exhibitions of powerful price momentum are rare. Since the market bottom in 2002, there have been eight occasions when the percentage of S&P 500 above their 50 dma has surged from below 15% to over 90% in a brief period. That latest episode occurred when stock prices soared off the bottom in October 2023. These...
Mid-week market update: I had been expecting a choppy January for stock prices, and current market action has not disappointed. Investors came into 2024 all bulled up, but rising rates eventually spooked stock prices. It all came to a head with Fed Governor Waller's speech, in which he stated that the Fed is pivoting to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As the 10-year Treasury yield flirts with the 4% level and the yield curve steepens from its inverted condition, it’s worthwhile to keep in mind that the universe is unfolding as it should. Monetary conditions are tight, inflation is moderating, the jobs market, though tight, is weakening, and the economy is chugging along with no...
Mid-week market update: There is a time for an aggressive posture in positioning and there is a time for patience. This is a time for investors to be patient. In the aftermath of the rally off the October bottom, the S&P 500 is consolidating its gains after breaking out through resistance at 4600 to...
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