Free Posts

A bloodbath on Wall Street

In Free Posts by Cam Hui -
Mid-week market update: I had expected to begin to wind down and relax for the holidays this time of year. Instead, we got a bloodbath in the stock market. To say that the market is oversold is an understatement. Sure, standard measures indicate oversold conditions, such as the VIX Index had risen above its upper...

How China and America could both lose Cold War 2.0

In Free Posts by Cam Hui -
In a past post (see Pax Americana or America First?), I showed how the combination of the unequal sharing of productivity gains and the inward looking America First policies were eroding US competitiveness, and raising the fragility of the post-WW II Pax Americana boom. Even though the US and China appears to be locked into...

How the bear market could end

In Free Posts by Cam Hui -
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Good news and bad news from the sentiment front

In Free Posts by Cam Hui -
Mid-week market update: This market is becoming increasingly jittery. Indeed, the chart below shows that the stock market moves more per dollar traded than usual, indicating a lack of liquidity.     This indicates that volatility is likely going to increase. Such an environment can be both profitable and trying for traders, as I have...

Pax Americana, or America First?

In Free Posts by Cam Hui -
December is the season for investment advisors and portfolio managers to meet with their clients. Here are some thought on your an allocation framework as you prepare for those meetings. As a cautionary message, let's begin with a "buy and forget" portfolio featured in Fortune in 2000 and how they performed by 2012.    ...