Mid-week market update: In the short run, how the market reacts after price gaps can be important clues to market psychology and direction. How quickly the market fills a gap is a measure of either strength or weakness. As accompanying hourly chart of the S&P 500 shows, we have price gaps everywhere (upside gaps...
I wrote yesterday that the stock market has been gripped by a YOLO (You Only Live Once) and FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) madness. I can suggest a possible refuge: gold and gold miners. Gold prices recently made a fresh high last week, but the breakout was not decisive to be judged as unabashedly...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
How would you feel about a star value manager with the track record shown in the chart below. While he beat the market in the wake of the dot-com bubble, he has only matched the performance of the S&P 500 since 2011. To be sure, he did beat his style benchmark (second panel). The...
Mid-week market update: I have said before that the stock market is extended in its advance and it could pull back at any time. How extended? Here is another metric. Bollinger Bands (BB) are overbought/oversold indicators. If a stock or index rises above its 2 standard deviation BB. it is said to be overbought....
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