Mid-week market update: I am publishing this earlier than usual as the U.S. markets are closed for the Juneteenth holiday. The S&P 500 has gone on another upper Bollinger Band ride, accompanied by a severely overbought reading on the 5-day RSI, which is over 90%. Overbought conditions are often not bearish, but a manifestation...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Remember that equity investors tend to enjoy strong returns in the absence of recession, which dents returns, or war and revolution, which can result in a permanent loss of capital. With those caveats in mind, the market gods are presenting patient investors with three gifts from the three economic blocs in the world: the U.S.,...
Mid-week market update: The option market was pricing in a daily equity market swing of 1.6% ahead of today's events, namely the May CPI report and the FOMC decision. Even though the S&P 500 gained strongly today, the move could be said to be disappointing in volatility terms. The bullish tone was set this...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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