Mid-week market update: One of the running themes of the TV show, the X-Files, is a poster on the wall of FBI agent Mulder with the caption "I want to believe". As the S&P 500 breaks out at the 6000 resistance level and Street strategists scramble to their index targets, I also want...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I have been fairly cautious in my U.S. equity outlook in these pages, but that doesn’t mean I am equity bearish. The accompanying chart shows the progress of different major regional stock markets priced in USD in the last 20 years. With the exception of China, whose stock market doesn’t reflect its economy, stock prices...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 has been a little stronger than I expected as it tests upside resistance. I would urge traders to exercise caution as the market is exhibiting negative RSI divergences. Even though these kinds of divergences can persist for a while, they nevertheless indicate limited upside potential. A valuation...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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