Managing fear and greed in a time of volatility

Mid-week market update: I received a number of questions from readers who were positioned for the monster rally that began on Monday, "What's your upside target?"   The answer is, "It depends." Make no mistake, the market was washed out and oversold when the rally began, but it was sparked by a rebound in bond...

Seven reasons why traders should grit their teeth and buy

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

The right and wrong way to throw in the towel

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A pending major market bottom? It sounds too easy!

Is the universe unfolding as it should? Most technical and sentiment indicators argue for a near-term double bottom in the S&P 500. The June bottom was the initial capitulation bottom. The market rallied and it is poised to weaken and re-test the old lows in the near future. That's when the new bull begins.  ...

How to trade the failed breadth thrust

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Just a flesh wound, or a deeper cut?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Overhead resistance test = Possible weakness ahead

Mid-week market update; The S&P 500 has undergone a powerful rally off June's bottom, but it's now approaching technical resistance in the form of a 200 dma and a falling trend line. In addition, the market is overbought as measured by the 5 and 14-day RSIs, much in the manner of early November 2021.  ...

A warning from a market leadership review

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Lessons from a study of past major market bottoms

The mood has changed on Wall Street. The WSJ declared last week that the NASDAQ is back in a bull market.     The number of "new bull market" stories have skyrocketed in recent days. Suddenly, chartists on my social media feed are full of "if this index rises to X, or this indicator gets...

A useful step, but where`s the clear and convincing evidence?

Mid-week market update: The markets took on a risk-on tone in the wake of the softer than expected CPI report. It was a useful first step and a possible sign that inflation is peaking, but I am still waiting for the "clear and convincing evidence" that inflation is under control before getting overly excited about...

In what world is fighting the Fed a good idea?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Cutting through the noise: Why today’s Fed decision doesn’t matter

Mid-week market update: It's always difficult to make a stock market comment on FOMC announcement day. Equity prices can exhibit strong reversals after the announcement and press conference. As well, it's also not unusual for the move to reverse itself the next day.   It's not clear whether the 2023 FOMC pattern of weakness into...

A powerful new bull? Don’t be fooled!

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

An FOMC market nosedive ahead?

Mid-week market update: I recently identified a 2022 market formation where the S&P 500 declines into an FOMC meeting and rallies afterward. The key question for investors is whether the same pattern will repeat itself for the July meeting. If so, the market should top out about now.     Here are the bull and...

Three catalysts that could spark a “rip your face off” rally

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

China blinked, but can it save the world again?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

When does the pain end?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Q2 earnings season = Market abyss?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...