Maybe it's me, or my imagination? Even before the latest round of market weakness, most of the feedback and sentiment on my social media feed has tended to bear bearish. I saw a fair number of calls for SPX to eventually test its February lows at about 1820, but I haven't seen a lot of...
Mid-week market update: What's going on with the VIX Index? The VIX, which measures implied option volatility and a useful measure of "fear", spiked dramatically on Monday. While SPX did fall, the magnitude of the decline didn't match past VIX spikes. It prompted this tweet from Ryan Detrick: Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is...
For your weekend contemplation: This post isn't about how the American and Chinese economies may converge, but about the potential development path of capital markets and regulatory regimes. CNBC recently reported that Charles Schwab and the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance conducted a survey of Chinese stock investors and found out the reason the Chinese...
Mid-week market update: As the US equity market consolidates its gains near resistance and all-time highs, I remain constructive on stock prices for the following five reasons: Momentum is positive Breadth is positive Bullish support from overseas markets Greed is fading, which is supportive of further gains Overbought conditions are fading (ditto) Momentum is positive I...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an...
Further to my last post (see Three steps and a stumble?), I would like to clear up some misconceptions about how I interpret the yield curve and its investment implications. Much of the confusion revolves around the idea of correlation vs. causation. Yield curve inversions don't cause anything. Yield curve inversions are a signal (correlation)...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Regular readers know that I have been bullish on the commodity and reflation trade (see A possible generational low in oil and energy stocks and The road to a 2016 market top). On the weekend, I postulated three separate short-term scenarios for the stock market (see *Sigh* Another growth scare): The growth...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: There doesn't seem to be much of a point in writing about the technical condition of the market when its likely path is dominated by a binary event like the FOMC meeting this week. So I thought that I would write about how to interpret and react to the FOMC statement instead....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
A reader raised a question after my generally bullish weekend post (see Equities in a macro sweet spot). The latest report from Barron's of insider activity had shown that readings had risen up into sell signal territory. How worried should investors be about this development? Insiders tend not to be short-term traders and...
Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...
After I wrote my last post about the GAAP gap, which addressed many of the concerns about shortfalls in earnings quality (see The GAAP gap as Rorschbach test), I had a number of discussions about the vulnerability of the stock market to buyback activity. I had been meaning to write more on this topic, but...
I encountered a couple of interesting observations about the bond market on the weekend. First, Tom McClellan pointed out that the latest Commitment of Traders report on bond futures shows that the commercial hedgers, who are thought to be the "smart money" are massively short the bond market. As well, Mark Hulbert observed that bond...
Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...
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