Mid-week market update: It was clear from yesterday's market action that the equity bull depends entirely on the success of the Republican tax cut bill. The market rallied on the news that the tax cut bill had made it out of Senate Budget Committee. It manage to shrug off the news of a possible government...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The mid-week market update is being published a day early because of the shortened trading week due to American Thanksgiving on Thursday. You can tell a lot about market psychology by the way it reacts to news. Early Monday morning (Europe time) and before the market open, a grim Angela Merkel announced...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: After several weeks of waiting, evidence of near-term weakness and consolidation is finally appearing. The SPX violated an uptrend this week and it is undergoing a retreat or a period of sideways consolidation. Until today, this orderly retreat in stock prices was enough to depress stock prices, but not enough...
Are you getting nervous about the FANG stocks? The debut of the FANG+ futures contract may mark a top for this group, as it presents an easy vehicle for hedgers to short these high beta stocks. But don't despair, consider this chart of the relative performance of a high beta group that is washed-out, and...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The price action of stocks in the last few weeks makes it evident that US equities are awaiting the resolution of the Republican tax bill. This week will be critical for the progress of the bill through the House, as it is scheduled to be marked up in the Ways and Means...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: In my weekend post (see Good news, bad news from Earnings Season), I had identified several sources of potential market volatility this week: Mueller indictments GOP tax plan FOMC decision Fed chair nomination Key macro-economic reports It's time for an update, and it spells caution for the bulls. Mueller indictments I don't...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The SPX has been on an upper Bollinger Band (BB) ride on the weekly chart, and I have been waiting for a downside break on the weekly RSI-14 indicator as the signal that a correction is starting. Current readings show that the weekly RSI has not broken down below 70 tet. ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I wrote last weekend that there was a possibility that the stock market may undergo a melt-up, followed by a crash (see Market melt-up and crash?). That scenario may well be occurring, and I sent out an email to subscribers on Monday stating that my trading account had moved from all-cash to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The intermediate term technical trend remains bullish, it`s hard to argue with the strong momentum that the market has displayed. Ari Wald recently pointed out that the market is experiencing a "good overbought" condition (my words, not his) that has the potential to carry the market much higher. However, the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Back on July 19, 2017, I wrote about using point and figure charting as a way of projecting an upside SPX target when the index stood at 2473 (see What's the upside target in this rally?). Using different sets of inputs that represent different time horizons and risk tolerances, I arrived at...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Political operative and former Clinton advisor James Carville once quipped that he wanted to be reincarnated as the bond market so that he could intimidate everybody. Equity investors and traders are well advised to remember that comment, as there is much to be learned from a cross-asset, or inter-market, viewpoint from bond market action. For...
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