Mid-week market update: The week began on a bullish note this week as the melt-up theme dominated early in the week (see Jeremy Grantham`s call for a possible melt-up, and my own views published last November: Embrace the blow-off, but with a stop loss discipline). On Monday, the market rose for a fifth consecutive day,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The stock market began the year by roaring out of the gate. This was not a big surprise. Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges tweeted on New Year's Eve that the market has rallied strongly when it closed at a 10-day low at the end of the year. Though the sample...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: There is not much that can be said about the stock market that I have not already said. The small cap seasonal Santa Claus rally that I wrote about appears to be proceeding as expected, though the tape is thin and most professionals have shut down their books for the year. ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: You can tell a lot about market psychology by the way it reacts to events. News overnight of the victory by Democrat Doug Jones over the troubled Republican candidate Roy Moore in the Alabama senate race was judged to be market unfriendly, as it meant that the GOP would have its Senate...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Swing and day traders are often fond of studies that show an edge under certain market conditions. But what happens when two different studies disagree? On one hand, Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges published a study yesterday that signaled a likely bullish outcome for stock prices. Yesterday (Tuesday) would have day 1 of...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: It was clear from yesterday's market action that the equity bull depends entirely on the success of the Republican tax cut bill. The market rallied on the news that the tax cut bill had made it out of Senate Budget Committee. It manage to shrug off the news of a possible government...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The mid-week market update is being published a day early because of the shortened trading week due to American Thanksgiving on Thursday. You can tell a lot about market psychology by the way it reacts to news. Early Monday morning (Europe time) and before the market open, a grim Angela Merkel announced...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: After several weeks of waiting, evidence of near-term weakness and consolidation is finally appearing. The SPX violated an uptrend this week and it is undergoing a retreat or a period of sideways consolidation. Until today, this orderly retreat in stock prices was enough to depress stock prices, but not enough...
Are you getting nervous about the FANG stocks? The debut of the FANG+ futures contract may mark a top for this group, as it presents an easy vehicle for hedgers to short these high beta stocks. But don't despair, consider this chart of the relative performance of a high beta group that is washed-out, and...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The price action of stocks in the last few weeks makes it evident that US equities are awaiting the resolution of the Republican tax bill. This week will be critical for the progress of the bill through the House, as it is scheduled to be marked up in the Ways and Means...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: In my weekend post (see Good news, bad news from Earnings Season), I had identified several sources of potential market volatility this week: Mueller indictments GOP tax plan FOMC decision Fed chair nomination Key macro-economic reports It's time for an update, and it spells caution for the bulls. Mueller indictments I don't...
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