Josh Brown had a terrific comment about the secret of Warren Buffett’s success. Buffett is unabashedly “permabullish” on America: One of the hallmarks of Berkshire’s success has been its willingness to raise or lower its formidable cash hoard in response to the presence (or lack thereof) of viable investing opportunities. One of the other hallmarks of Buffett’s approach has been …
The bear case: How Trumponomics keeps me awake at night
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which …
Is Warren Buffett losing his touch?
How would you evaluate a manager with this kind of 10-year investment performance? Terrific? Or Meh! It depends on when you got in. Sure, the 10 year numbers look terrific, but he is roughly flat with the benchmark over five years and he had a difficult 2015. What if I told you this track record was none other …
The right way to ride Buffett’s coattails
It isn’t often that we get to participate in buying stocks at the levels that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought them at. Most of the time, the public finds out in regulatory filings after the fact and the stocks have already moved up. Here is one exception that I discovered. In August 2013, Berkshire disclosed that it had invested about …