Two gifts from the market gods

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

How Buffett’s business empire could unravel

Josh Brown had a terrific comment about the secret of Warren Buffett's success. Buffett is unabashedly "permabullish" on America: One of the hallmarks of Berkshire’s success has been its willingness to raise or lower its formidable cash hoard in response to the presence (or lack thereof) of viable investing opportunities. One of the other hallmarks...

The bear case: How Trumponomics keeps me awake at night

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is...

The right way to ride Buffett’s coattails

It isn't often that we get to participate in buying stocks at the levels that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought them at. Most of the time, the public finds out in regulatory filings after the fact and the stocks have already moved up. Here is one exception that I discovered. In August 2013, Berkshire disclosed...