Curb your (bullish) enthusiasm

Mid-week market update: Subscribers received an email update of the tactically fragile environment for US equities on Monday. There are plenty of reasons to be cautious. Trade Followers observed that the Twitter breadth of all sectors are bullish, and such conditions are reflective of overbought market conditions: Last week, sector sentiment gleaned from the Twitter...

What would a contrarian do?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

What’s the upside target in this rally?

Mid-week market update: As the major US equity indices reach fresh all-time highs, it is time to ponder the question of how far the current upleg is likely to carry us. While technical analysts have several techniques available at their fingertips, I rely mostly on the venerable point and figure charting system (click link for primer),...

U-S-A! U-S-A!

Mid-week market update: Having reviewed sector rotation last week (see More evidence of an emerging reflationary rebound), it is time to apply the same analysis to countries and regions. First, let's start with a primer of our analytic tool. Relative Rotation Graphs, or RRG charts, are a way of depicting the changes in leadership in...

A mid-year review of 2018 recession risk

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

More evidence of an emerging reflationary rebound

Mid-week market update: Further to my last post (see Nearing the terminal phase of this equity bull), There are numerous signs that the market's animal spirits are getting set for a reflationary stock market rally. First of all, the BAML Fund Manager Survey shows that a predominant majority of institutional managers believe that we are in...

Nearing the terminal phase of this equity bull

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Long live the reflation trade!

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

A market breadth model that works

Mid-week market update: Technical analysts monitor market breadth, as the theory goes, to see the underlying tone of the market. If the major market averages are rising, but breadth indicators are not confirming the advance, this can be described as the generals leading the charge, but the troops are not following. Such negative divergences are...

Risks are rising, but THE TOP is still ahead

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

A Fed preview: What happens in 2018?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Thrust and bust, or lower for longer?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Thinking Straight 101

Good afternoon, class. Welcome to another session of "Thinking Straight 101". Your assignment today is to choose one of the topics below and write an essay for next week's class: North Korea: George Friedman at Geopolitical Futures recently warned, "All the signs are there: The U.S. is telling North Korea, in no uncertain terms, that...

The market`s hurdles to sustainable new highs

Mid-week market update: So far, my recent VIX based buy signal has worked out according to plan (see A market top checklist). I emailed subscribers the buy signal from the trading system on Friday, which was triggered when the VIX Index rises above its upper Bollinger Band and then mean reverts below.     If...

A market top checklist

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

How the bull will die

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...