Mid-week market update: The equity bull market began about a year ago. Ryan Detrick observed that the second year of past major bulls have averaged gains of 16.9%, though investors should not ignore pullback risk. Risk on! Animal spirits Bullish readings are confirmed from a long-term perspective by a combination of...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: If you hadn't known that it was FOMC day, you would have looked at the closing market diary and shrugged. The S&P 500 closed only +0.3% on the day. Beneath the surface, however, a lot has been going on in the past few weeks. Analysts who try to call the direction...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: The rebound in the NASDAQ and growth stocks was not a surprise. Value outperformed growth by the most on record last week - and that includes the dot-com crash that began in 2000. Make no mistake. Growth stocks are experiencing an unsustainable dead cat bounce. Growth is oversold...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Is the bond market panic over yet? The 10-year Treasury yield touched a high of 1.6% last week. It fell when the Reserve Bank of Australia began to engage in yield curve control, but it is edging back towards 1.5% again. Based on this week's market action, I conclude that...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: About a month ago, I warned that the market was undergoing a regime shift from growth to value (see What would Bob Farrell say?) and compared today's Big Tech momentum stocks, not to the dot-com mania, but the Nifty Fifty era. On the weekend, I rhetorically asked in a tweet that if...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: Instead of repeating endlessly the mantra of how frothy this market has become, I thought it would be worthwhile to take a look at one of the market leaders. Small cap stocks have led the market up during this recovery. On the other hand, the latest BoA Global Fund Manager...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: Despite my warnings about negative divergence, the S&P 500 continued to rise and it is now testing a key trend line resistance level at about 3920. Much of the negative breadth divergence have disappeared, though Helene Meisler observed that about 35% of the NASDAQ new highs are triple counted. Is...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: The fever on the r/WSB squeeze has broken. As well, the elevated nature of sentiment readings has begun to normalize. Does that mean the correction is over? In the past few days, I have had an unusual number of people ask me that question. My answer has been, "In the...
Is this GameStop's "shoeshine boy" moment? Tracy Alloway pointed out that GME had made it to dog Instagram. If dog Instagram wasn't enough of a shoeshine boy moment, how about this Michael Bathnick observation? Regardless, there are a number of other opportunities in the short squeeze space to consider (other than...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: What are we make of this market? In the last four years, the weekly S&P 500 chart shows that we have seen six corrective episodes of differing magnitudes. Risk happens, and sometimes with little or no warning. About half of those instances saw negative 5-week RSI divergences, which we are...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
What would the legendary market analyst Bob Farrell say about today's markets? I was reviewing the patterns of factor returns recently, and I was reminded of three of Farrell's 10 Rules of Investing (which are presented slightly out of order). Rule 3: There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent. Rule 2: Excesses in...
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