Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Bloomberg recently featured an unusual article titled "Sell Signals All But Useless in Unchartable 2021 Stock Market". If you bailed because of Bollinger Bands, ran away from relative strength or took direction from the directional market indicator in 2021, you paid for it. It’s testament to the straight-up trajectory of stocks...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: How should investors and traders react to the recent stock market weakness? The bears will argue that the S&P 500 spiked past a trend line resistance and fell back, which is an indication of bullish exhaustion. Moreover, the 5-day RSI recycled from an overbought condition to neutral, which is a tactical sell...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset...
Mid-week market update: Even as selected sentiment models and market internals scream for caution, the S&P 500 is on the verge of melting up as it tests overhead resistance as defined by a rising trend line. The melt-up condition would be confirmed if the index were to rally through the trend line, which it did...
Q1 earnings season is about to begin in earnest, with JPMorgan Chase scheduled to report on Wednesday and the rest of the big banks during this week. Ahead of the reports, equity volumes have plunged even as the S&P 500 rose to all-time highs. It's quiet, maybe a little too quiet....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: What should traders make of this stock market? On one hand, the S&P 500 is exhibiting strong positive price momentum. Not only is the index trading above its daily Bollinger Band (BB), it's trading above its weekly BB. In the last 10 years, there have been eight occasions when the S&P 500...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset...
Mid-week market update: You can tell a lot about the character of a market by how it reacts to news. In response to the Archegos Affair, the contagion effect has mostly been contained. Other than the share prices of Nomura, Credit Suisse, and the liquidated stocks, the market averages have been steady and this is not...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset...
In light of last week's partial NASDAQ reversal, I had a number of discussions with readers about whether the reflation trade has become overly consensus and crowded. To be sure, bond prices have become wildly oversold while the cyclically sensitive copper/gold ratio has surged upward and appears extended. Is the reflation trade, which...
Mid-week market update: The equity bull market began about a year ago. Ryan Detrick observed that the second year of past major bulls have averaged gains of 16.9%, though investors should not ignore pullback risk. Risk on! Animal spirits Bullish readings are confirmed from a long-term perspective by a combination of...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: If you hadn't known that it was FOMC day, you would have looked at the closing market diary and shrugged. The S&P 500 closed only +0.3% on the day. Beneath the surface, however, a lot has been going on in the past few weeks. Analysts who try to call the direction...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: The rebound in the NASDAQ and growth stocks was not a surprise. Value outperformed growth by the most on record last week - and that includes the dot-com crash that began in 2000. Make no mistake. Growth stocks are experiencing an unsustainable dead cat bounce. Growth is oversold...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Is the bond market panic over yet? The 10-year Treasury yield touched a high of 1.6% last week. It fell when the Reserve Bank of Australia began to engage in yield curve control, but it is edging back towards 1.5% again. Based on this week's market action, I conclude that...
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