Recently, there has been a parade of regional Fed presidents calling for a serious consideration of a rate hike: Boston Fed's Rosengren, who appears to have becoming more hawkish after being a dove Richmond Fed`s Lacker San Francisco Fed`s Williams Kansas City Fed's George Atlanta Fed's Lockhart The hawkishness of regional presidents is no surprise....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Two weeks ago, I had forecast a minor stock market pullback as the SPX neared 2200 (see The market catches round number-itis). The corrective move hasn't happened and remain in a tight trading range. The one bright spot for the bull case is stock prices haven't fallen in response to bad news,...
It's always nice to get positive feedback from subscribers. One subscriber praised me for my trading model and wanted real-time updates of signal changes (which I already provide but wound up in his spam folder). Another subscriber complimented me on my series of tweets indicating an oversold market on Thursday, which suggested that the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I have spent a lot of time in these pages writing about the influence of macro-economic factors on market analysis. Indeed, Matt King at Citigroup recently highlighted the growing importance of macro factors on the equity market (chart via Bloomberg): [Please see Bloomberg story for chart] Here are three key macro factors that I...
Mid-week market update: In the wake of Federal Reserve vice chair Stanley Fischer's remarks about Friday's Job Report, the market is mainly playing a waiting game for the results of that announcement. However, there are signs that the Jobs Report may be setting up for a negative surprise which could be bullish for bond and...
In my last post (see The roadmap to a 2017 market top) I wrote that one possible bear market trigger would be a debt crisis in China. In response, an alert reader sent me this Bloomberg tweet and asked for my comment. How bad could a China debt crisis get? In this post,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The markets have been nervous as we await Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole. Now that the agenda for the Jackson Hole symposium has been released, I believe that Yellen is unlikely to announce any major shift in monetary policy in her speech. The intent of the Jackson Hole symposium is for Federal Reserve officials...
Mid-week market update: On the weekend (see The market's hidden message for the economy, rates and stock prices), I wrote that the short-term outlook was more difficult to call than usual. On one hand, we were seeing broad based strength, which argued for an intermediate term bullish call. On the other hand, Urban Carmel pointed...
About three weeks ago, I wrote about opportunities in European equities (see Worried about US equities? Here's an alternative!). I pointed out that stock prices in Europe were far cheaper than US, the fears about European integrity and financial system were overblown, and the market seemed to be ignoring signs of a growth recovery. Since...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The intermediate term outlook that I've been writing about for the past few weeks hasn't really changed (see Get ready for the melt-up and Party like it's 1999, or 1995?). The stock market continues to enjoy a tailwind based on the combination of overly defensive investors and a growth turnaround which is leading...
As we await the Fed`s annual Jackson Hole symposium on August 25-27, Bloomberg highlighted a research paper by Fed economist Jeremy Nalewaik. Nalewaik found that inflation and inflationary expectations had tracked each other well but started to diverge in the mid 1990's. This paper is important to the future of Fed policy, as it pushes the Fed towards...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Is this the pullback and correction that I've been anticipating? If so, how far can it go? Be patient. Take a look at this weekly point and figure SPX chart. Is there any doubt that the intermediate term outlook is bullish? While my inner investor remains bullish based on the intermediate...
I am seeing an unusual level of rising anxiety over the political implications of Brexit. Last week, Stratfor published a report entitled "Brexit: The First of Many Referendum Threats to the EU", which detailed the threats of additional referendums to the future of Europe. Jim Rogers, writing in the Daily Reckoning, also painted a dire...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: After spending over two weeks in a narrow trading range, the SPX broke down out of that range yesterday and tested technical support at the 20 day moving average (dma), which was also the mid-Bollinger Band mark. At the height of the decline, the index had fallen 1% and the market was...
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