I thought that, as a change of pace, I would write about where my inner investor is finding opportunities, instead of focusing on the daily gyrations of the stock market and whether it has found a short-term bottom, which is a topic I will cover in a post this weekend. The art of bottom fishing...
The specter of currency wars and competitive devaluation is in the air. Evan Soltas recently penned a post at FT Alphaville addressing the issue of how petrostates can solve their fiscal woes. The answer was either fiscal austerity or devaluation. The Telegraph reported that the World Bank was urging Saudi Arabia to use its currency...
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Risk-off (downgrade) Trading model: Bearish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"...
After the market closed yesterday (Wednesday), I tweeted a series of charts indicating that the market appeared to be oversold, but fear levels weren't extreme yet: The market was oversold on % of stocks over the 10 day moving average based on the breadth charts from IndexIndicators; The market was oversold on net 20 day...
The blogger Jesse Livermore at Philosophical Economics recently wrote another brilliant post about the use of trend following models and market timing. He found that trend following models work very well on diversified stock indices, but didn't really understand the mechanism of how they worked. As I pride myself on being a left and right...
I would like to think that my last post, The road to a 2016 market top, panicked the market into a vicious sell-off on the first trading day of the year, but I can't think of many people with have the hubris to make that kind of suggestion. As the market closed, the SPX was...
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Neutral Trading model: Bearish (downgrade) The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"...
As 2015 draws to a close, this would be a good time to review how I did during the year. As regular readers know, I have two personas, my inner investor and my inner trader. My inner investor had a decent year, while my inner trader had a year that he would rather forget. ...
In my last post, I wrote about the possible appearance of a rare Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal this week (see The 2016 macro surprise that no one talks about). Tuesday was the last day in the 10 day window for the ZBT buy signal to be triggered. Alas, it doesn't seem to have happened....
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Neutral Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My...
How would you evaluate a manager with this kind of 10-year investment performance? Terrific? Or Meh! It depends on when you got in. Sure, the 10 year numbers look terrific, but he is roughly flat with the benchmark over five years and he had a difficult 2015. What if I told you this...
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Neutral Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My inner...
There appears to be some glitch with the formatting of the previous post. Here it is again: In a recent post, I was relatively upbeat about the near term market outlook but warned that the next recession could be very ugly (see A major bear market in 2016?). To explain, I have found three possible...
In a recent post, I was relatively upbeat about the near term market outlook but warned that the next recession could be very ugly (see A major bear market in 2016?). To explain, I have found three possible time bombs that are set to go off at the next recession: The Fed's balance sheet; A...
As stock prices have recently weakened, I have received some comments regarding the start of a bear market in 2016. To put it into context, bear markets start for one of three major fundamental reasons: War or revolution leading to a permanent loss of capital (think Confederate war bonds, or German panzers smashing through French lines on...
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Neutral Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My inner...
The study of emerging markets is a useful exercise in examining our assumptions about economies and markets because they sometimes operate by different rules than developed economies. As an example, Bloomberg reported today that the markets are freaking out over the firing of the finance minister: South African markets were thrown into turmoil after President Jacob...
I received a couple of comments to my last weekend post that it was somewhat lacking in a short-term trading outlook (see 2016: Time to get bearish and go "Zero Hedge"?). As my previous view that the US equity market would grind up until year-end hasn't worked out, it would be appropriate to update the...
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Neutral Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My inner...
One of my tools in my market analysis toolbox is leadership analysis. In particular, I found that in bull phases, it pays to buy the market leaders (see Momentum + Bull market = Chocolate + Peanut butter). I was playing around with Relative Rotation Graphs, or RRG, the other day and what I found was a surprise....
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
