Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
There has been a lot of hand wringing about the rising level of protectionism in the US and around the world. Let's take an alternative view to perform our analysis. Imagine an alternative universe, where Donald Trump did not secure the GOP nomination in 2016, but another Republican went on to win the election. I...
Understandably, there has been a lot of market angst over a looming trade war. Indeed, the University of Michigan Business Confidence Index shows a rising level of anxiety. How worried should you be? Measuring the Trump effect I approach the question in a number of ways. First, let's measure the Trump effect...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: It's finally happened. The SPX staged a convincing upside breakout from its cup and handle formation. Depending on how you draw the lower line, the upside target is in the 2925-2960 range. The first test will be resistance of the January highs. Upside breakouts are bullish. What more do you...
The news about the Sino-American trade war seems to get worse every day. Callum Thomas pointed out that corporate managements are increasingly raising concerns about rising tariffs. Chinese stocks have cratered, along with the stock indices of China's largest Asian trading partners. However, a couple of contrarian buy signals are appearing. First, trade...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
I had a number of questions and comments from my last post (see Wall Street: Where the Wild Things are) when I wrote that my trading account, while still bullish, had taken "partial profits earlier this week as part of his risk control discipline when readings became short-term overbought". The comments ranged from "where can...
Mid-week market update: There is a children's book called Where The Wild Things Are by Maurice Sendak that stands as a metaphor for the stock market's action. Here is a summary from Wikipedia: This story of only 338 words focuses on a young boy named Max who, after dressing in his wolf costume, wreaks such havoc through...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I would first like to convey to all of my American friends my best wishes for a Happy 4th of July. Enjoy you day off, as more fireworks may be on the way. The stock market appears to be starting an oversold bounce. Callum Thomas has been conducting an weekly (unscientific) Twitter...
This is one in an occasional series of articles highlighting hidden investing factors. For the previous article in the series, please see What you may not know about small cap stocks. There has been some buzz in social media about the following chart that correlates the Fed's balance sheet with the Smart Money Index (SMI)....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Now that the SPX flirted with the combination of the 2700 level and its lower Bollinger Band (BB), it's time to see if the market is ready to bottom on a short-term and intermediate basis. Let`s analyze outlook from the perspective of breadth, momentum, and sentiment. Breadth and momentum The readings from...
Mid-week market update: In light of the recent market turmoil, I thought I would publish my mid-week market update early. The Shanghai Index moved into bear market territory by declining 20% on a peak-to-trough basis overnight. The SPX is testing its 50 day moving average (dma). Europe is struggling as both the FTSE 100 and...
A recent Axios story featured an interesting political perspective on Trump's possible strategy for the midterm elections: An odd paradox in defining this moment in politics: The more President Trump does, says and tweets outrageous things, the more his critics go bananas and the better he does in the polls. Indeed, Gallup's tracking poll of presidential...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
This is one in an occasional series of articles highlighting the hidden investing factor exposures, starting with small cap stocks. Small caps have been on an absolute tear lately, both on an absolute basis and relative to large caps. Does that mean you should jump on the small cap momentum train? Momentum is...
Mid-week market update: The fate of this market is becoming highly news dependent. Ed Yardeni recently stated in on CNBC that he has never seen a "president this bullish and bearish at the same time". The market wants to go up on earnings, but it has been held back by Trump`s protectionism. Will stock prices...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
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