Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The market strength this week was no surprise to me based on my seasonal analysis I published on the weekend (see Will a volatility collapse lead to a market collapse?). Last week was option expiry (OpEx) week, and OpEx weeks have historically been bullish for stocks. In particular, Rob Hanna at Quantifiable...
It is Easter Monday, a day when Christians focus on the theme of rebirth and resurrection, Healthcare stocks just underwent a near-death experience when the market panicked over the prospect of a Democrat victory in 2020, and the potential negative effects of the implementation of a Medicare-For-All policy. To be sure, there are costs to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I would like to address a number of bearish themes floating around the internet in the past few weeks, they consist of: A low volume stock market rally Extreme low volatility (remember the VIXmageddon of early 2018) The closing stock buyback window during Earnings Season, which removes buyback support for stocks ...
The US equity market has risen more or less in a straight line since the Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal of January 7, 2019 (see A rare "what's my credit card limit" buy signal). Technically, breadth thrusts are extremely rarely long-term bullish signals. How far can stock price rise from here? Chris Ciovacco...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
-week market update: Numerous signs of a new bullish impulse are appearing. The American economy has sidestepped a recession; Sentiment is not excessively bullish; and Price momentum is strong. It is a truism in investing that you should buy when blood is running in the streets. The latest update of NDR's Global Recession Model shows...
I am somewhat at a loss of why Trump is putting so much pressure on the Federal Reserve. In a recent CNBC interview, CEA chair Kevin Hassett projected that growth would rise again to 3% later this year. “Everything we see right now is teeing us up to have a year like last year -...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Even as the slowdown gloom overtook the market in the past few weeks, stock prices did not break down. Now, the storm seems to be passing as green shoots of growth are starting to appear. For equity investors, the most notable change was the reversal in forward 12-month EPS estimates, which bottomed...
I have two thoughts ahead of the March Jobs Report that investors should consider. Let's start with the tactical picture of what Friday's reports might bring. Recent jobs data has been distorted by the effects of the federal government shutdown, which can make the reported figures nonsensical. Now that the effects of the shutdown are...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The " Ultimate Market Timing Model " is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each...
Mid-week market update: I had characterized this week as a "show me" week for the market, though I had a slight bullish bias (see How the market could melt up). While I remained tactically bullish, a number of unanswered questions remained in light of the yield curve related sell-off that began late last week. Some...
There was some confusion from readers in response to my bullish pivot in yesterday's post (see How the market could melt up). Much of the confusion was attributable to the bear porn that has been floating around since last Friday from the inverted yield curve when the 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 3-month. One...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The instant market reaction on FOMC day can often be deceptive. Instead of a general market comment, I will focus instead on analyzing sectors using sentiment, momentum, and contrarian approaches. As a measure of sentiment, John Butters at FactSet recently analyzed sectors by the number of buy, hold, and sell rankings. ...
The big market moving event this week on this side of the Atlantic is the FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday with a statement, followed by a press conference by Fed chair Jerome Powell. Ahead of that event, let us consider what market expectations are for Fed policy. The CME's Fedwatch Tool shows that the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
For the longest time, I never "got" crytocurrencies. I never bought into the idea of an urgent need for a currency that is outside the control of the "authorities", or how you ascribe value to something that had no cash flow. If it has no cash flow, then how do you calculate a DCF value?...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
