As the market reacts the weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities, the level of anxiety is mounting. Forbes published an article on Sunday entitled "Attacks on Saudi Arabia are a recipe for $100 oil". Bloomberg that this represents the biggest disruption to global oil supply since the Iraqi 1990 invasion of Kuwait. As visions...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Last week's upside breakout through resistance was impressive. Since then, the market has consolidated above the breakout level, but a FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) rally has yet to materialize. In the past, such surges have been accompanied by a series of "good overbought" 5-day RSI readings, signs of buying stampedes from...
A reader alerted me to a CNBC report of a bullish analysis by Bespoke's Paul Hickey: Bespoke Investment’s Paul Hickey believes a market hot streak is unfolding. The independent market researcher is building his bullish case by zeroing in on the Citi Economic Surprise Index, which is built to measure optimism in the economy. In...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Global markets have taken a decided risk-on tone today on the news that Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam has withdrawn the controversial extradition bill. As well, the revolt in the British parliament has lessened the chances of a chaotic no-deal Brexit on October 31. On the other hand, the market was hit...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The stock market is continuing its pattern of sideways choppiness within a range, bounded by 2825 to 2930, with a possible extended range of 2790 to 2950. My inner trader continues to advocate for a strategy of buying the dips, and selling the rips. On the other hand, my inner...
Former New York Fed president Bill Dudley penned an explosive and shocking Bloomberg op-ed today: U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with China keeps undermining the confidence of businesses and consumers, worsening the economic outlook. This manufactured disaster-in-the-making presents the Federal Reserve with a dilemma: Should it mitigate the damage by providing offsetting stimulus, or...
Bloomberg reported that Carmen Reinhart had a chilling warning about Hong Kong: Hong Kong’s rolling political turmoil could prove a tipping point for the world economy, Harvard University economist Carmen Reinhart said. Noting an incidence of shocks that have rattled global growth, including the intensifying U.S.-China trade war, Reinhart cited Hong Kong as among her...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The SPX has been mired in a trading range for several weeks. Even as the market is once again testing resistance, it is displaying a mild positive RSI divergences, which argues that there may be further minor upside to resistance at about 2950. Nevertheless, this pattern argues for a trading strategy of...
The Brexit headlines look dire and Apocalyptic. The Sunday Times published the leak of Operation Yellowhammer, which was the UK government's base case plan for a no-deal Brexit. Britain faces shortages of fuel, food and medicine, a three-month meltdown at its ports, a hard border with Ireland and rising costs in social care...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Traders are always interested in improving their techniques. Today, I would like to offer a framework for thinking about your trading, using the way fund sponsors evaluate investment managers, called the 5 Ps. People: Who are you, and what's your experience and training? Performance: How have the returns been, and what kind of risk did you...
Mid-week market update: I am writing my mid-week update a day early because of the extraordinary volatility in the stock market. My wife and I took a few days to go on a Danube river cruise. As we arrived in Vienna, we spied a white swan swimming beside our ship. The white swan seems to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: My trading model has turned bullish, and there are plenty of signs that the market is ripe for a relief rally. There was the CNBC Markets in Turmoil program Monday, which as SentimenTrader pointed out, tends to mark short-term bottoms. As well, the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) fell to levels on...
The market has adopted a risk-off tone today because the Chinese yuan rose above the rate of 7 to 1 to the USD. The move was positioned as retaliation for Trump`s new tariffs. In addition, China has halted all purchase of American agricultural goods. What did you expect? The controlled depreciation of CNY...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
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