Mid-week market update: The SPX has staged an upside breakout to new all-time highs and indicators are looking overbought. Now the key question for traders is whether current conditions represent an extended market that`s ripe for a pullback, or does do these conditions represent a “good” overbought condition that accompanies a momentum surge, which leads to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As I pointed out yesterday (see Brexit: LTCM or Lehman?), my Trifecta Bottom Spotting Model, which has shown an uncanny record of spotting short-term market bottoms. This model flashed an "exacta" buy signal as of Friday's close and it has now flashed a "trifecta" signal based on Monday's close. The model is based on the...
Well, my Bremain call didn't go so well (see Positioning for a Bremain result). As I write this, the BBC has called the referendum in favor of Leave by a margin of 52-48. GBPUSD is down about 10% and Asian stock markets are down 2-4%. If you were correctly positioned for this outcome, congratulations, but...
Mid-week market update: What's going on with the VIX Index? The VIX, which measures implied option volatility and a useful measure of "fear", spiked dramatically on Monday. While SPX did fall, the magnitude of the decline didn't match past VIX spikes. It prompted this tweet from Ryan Detrick: Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I like to monitor the option market from a sentiment modeling perspective because, unlike surveys which can swing all over the place, the option market is a forum where people are putting real money on the line. Even as the stock market has been slowly grinding upwards, the option market has been showing...
I present for your consideration the following mystery chart. Would you rate this as a "buy", "hold" or "sell"? Your answer will tell you something about your global macro-economic outlook and the likelihood of an equity bear market in the near future. Scroll down for the answer... ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is...
Mid-week market update: As the US equity market consolidates its gains near resistance and all-time highs, I remain constructive on stock prices for the following five reasons: Momentum is positive Breadth is positive Bullish support from overseas markets Greed is fading, which is supportive of further gains Overbought conditions are fading (ditto) Momentum is positive I...
Mid-week market update: About two weeks ago, my inner trader turned cautious on the US stock market (see my tweet and subsequent post Tactically taking profits in the commodity and reflation trade). I had cited as reasons the weakness from China, the commodity markets and, later, Europe (see Waiting for the storm to pass), which was...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...
Mid-week market update: No, it isn't just a more hawkish Federal Reserve that's spooking the stock market. Stock prices were been falling before Fedspeak and the latest FOMC minutes sounded a more hawkish tone. The SPX staged a successful test of its 2040 neckline support of its head and shoulders pattern today. In fact, today`s action...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Regular readers know that I have been bullish on the commodity and reflation trade (see A possible generational low in oil and energy stocks and The road to a 2016 market top). On the weekend, I postulated three separate short-term scenarios for the stock market (see *Sigh* Another growth scare): The growth...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: In the short run, the SPX has pulled back and appear to be about to test its 50 day moving average (dma) at 2040, while experiencing a positive divergence on RSI-5. The SPX saw a Golden Cross last week - and the right way to trade these signals is to use...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I was wrong. I thought that the stock market was due for a pause and pullback last week (see A possible pause in the uptrend). Instead, it has strengthening on skeptical sentiment and improving breadth. The combination of these conditions are suggestive that the current rally as a lot further to go in...
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