Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: My inner trader remains constructive in his bullish view for stocks, but the recent advance appears to have gotten ahead of itself. My trading models indicate a 2-4 day period of weakness, followed by continued strength into all-time highs. In the short-term, the market is flashing cautionary signals for traders. The SPX...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I am writing the mid-week update a day early for two reasons. First, tomorrow is FOMC day and anything can happen. As well, I am getting on an airplane and I will be in the air when the market closes. It is astonishing how nervous the market has become after Facebook's disappointing...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: It's finally happened. The SPX staged a convincing upside breakout from its cup and handle formation. Depending on how you draw the lower line, the upside target is in the 2925-2960 range. The first test will be resistance of the January highs. Upside breakouts are bullish. What more do you...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: There is a children's book called Where The Wild Things Are by Maurice Sendak that stands as a metaphor for the stock market's action. Here is a summary from Wikipedia: This story of only 338 words focuses on a young boy named Max who, after dressing in his wolf costume, wreaks such havoc through...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I would first like to convey to all of my American friends my best wishes for a Happy 4th of July. Enjoy you day off, as more fireworks may be on the way. The stock market appears to be starting an oversold bounce. Callum Thomas has been conducting an weekly (unscientific) Twitter...
Now that the SPX flirted with the combination of the 2700 level and its lower Bollinger Band (BB), it's time to see if the market is ready to bottom on a short-term and intermediate basis. Let`s analyze outlook from the perspective of breadth, momentum, and sentiment. Breadth and momentum The readings from...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The fate of this market is becoming highly news dependent. Ed Yardeni recently stated in on CNBC that he has never seen a "president this bullish and bearish at the same time". The market wants to go up on earnings, but it has been held back by Trump`s protectionism. Will stock prices...
Mid-week market update: Since early May, it has been evident that the bulls have regained control of the tape (see The bulls are back in town). Not much can faze this market. Even today's hawkish Fed rate hike left the market down only -0.4% on the day. The question for investors then becomes how far...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Callum Thomas conducts a regular weekly (unscientific) Twitter poll of equity market sentiment, and the latest results show that both fundamental and technical bullishness are falling. These readings suggest that bullish momentum is waning. Indeed, daily MACD has been decelerating and turned negative this week, indicating that the bears are taking...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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