Here in Canada, we are observing the 100 year commemoration of the participation of Canadian troops in the Battle of Vimy Ridge. While the Canadian Corp achieved its objectives of capturing the ridge, it was a typical battle of the First World War that left enormous casualties for both sides. After the horrific...
Mark Hulbert recently highlighted an equity buy signal from an obscure indicator, the gold/platinum ratio. The signal is based on a research paper by Darien Huang, an academic at Cornell. The rationale behind the indicator goes something like this. Both gold and platinum are precious metals, which have defensive characteristics during equity bear...
As Donald Trump prepares to meet Xi Jingping this week, I am reminded of the long-term challenges that face China, namely its growing debt. There have been many analysts warning of the credit buildup, here is this chart from BCA Research is one of many examples. While I am not calling for an...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: On Monday, the major market averages successfully tested their 50 day moving averages (dma) and bounced. Does this mean that the correction is over? Not so fast. There are several indications that the market still has unresolved business on the downside for Monday's test to be a durable bottom. First of all the...
A long time reader sent me this Seeking Alpha article entitled "Monish Pabrai Has Created An Index Fund Built To Outperform", which described a "passive index fund" built using the following three investment themes deployed in three portfolio buckets: Share buybacks: Companies that are buying back their own shares Selected value manager holdings: The holdings...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Regular readers will know that I have been tactically cautious on the market for several weeks, but can the blogosphere please stop now with details of how many days it has been without a 1% decline? The market fell -1.2% on Tuesday with no obvious catalyst. Despite today's weak rally...
I was reviewing RRG charts on the weekend (click here for a primer on RRG charting) using different dimensions to slice and dice the market. When I analyzed the regional and country leadership, I was surprised to see that the dominant leadership were all China related (note that these ETFs are all denominated in USD,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
I hope that you are enjoying the stock market rally this week. My inner trader covered his short positions last week and stepped aside to await a better short re-entry point. St. Patrick's Day may be it. Ryan Detrick pointed out that St. Patrick's Day is one of the most positive days of the year, though...
Mid-week market update: It was no surprise that the Fed raised rates, as they had spent the last month widely telegraphing their intentions. This morning's release of February CPI tells the story. Headline CPI is near a 5-year high. Though core CPI (ex-food and energy) edged down, the latest reading of 2.2% is above the...
As the market awaits the FOMC decision and statement this week, there are a number of other critical market moving events to watch for. The Trump White House is expected to release its "skinny budget" this week, which may contain some broad outlines of the tax reform package. In addition, Angela Merkel's White House visit...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Recently, there have been numerous data points indicating excessive bullishness from different segments of the market: Retail investors are all-in Institutional investor bullish sentiment is off the charts Cash is at a two-decade low in global investor portfolios RIA sentiment are at bullish extremes Hedge funds are in a crowded long in...
I have had a number of subscribers ask me to extend the chart of my longer term calls, which had only gone back two years. The chart below shows the highlights of my posts back to 2013, which are intended for investors with a 6-24 month time horizon. I haven't been always right. On occasion,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
I just wanted to follow up to yesterday's post (see Don't relax yet, the week isn't over). One of the key developments that I had been watching has been the recent hawkish evolution in Fedspeak. Last night, uber-dove Lael Brainard gave an extraordinarily hawkish speech. She started with the following remarks: The economy appears to...
Mid-week market update: Boy, was I wrong. Two weeks ago, I wrote Why the S&P 500 won't get to 2400 (in this rally). Despite today's market strength, stock prices may be restrained by a case of round number-itis as the Dow crosses the 21,000 mark and the SPX tests the 2,400 level. In addition, the market's...
Josh Brown had a terrific comment about the secret of Warren Buffett's success. Buffett is unabashedly "permabullish" on America: One of the hallmarks of Berkshire’s success has been its willingness to raise or lower its formidable cash hoard in response to the presence (or lack thereof) of viable investing opportunities. One of the other hallmarks...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
