Are you getting nervous about the FANG stocks? The debut of the FANG+ futures contract may mark a top for this group, as it presents an easy vehicle for hedgers to short these high beta stocks. But don't despair, consider this chart of the relative performance of a high beta group that is washed-out, and...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The price action of stocks in the last few weeks makes it evident that US equities are awaiting the resolution of the Republican tax bill. This week will be critical for the progress of the bill through the House, as it is scheduled to be marked up in the Ways and Means...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: In my weekend post (see Good news, bad news from Earnings Season), I had identified several sources of potential market volatility this week: Mueller indictments GOP tax plan FOMC decision Fed chair nomination Key macro-economic reports It's time for an update, and it spells caution for the bulls. Mueller indictments I don't...
It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. I have stated that while I don't...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The SPX has been on an upper Bollinger Band (BB) ride on the weekly chart, and I have been waiting for a downside break on the weekly RSI-14 indicator as the signal that a correction is starting. Current readings show that the weekly RSI has not broken down below 70 tet. ...
I had been meaning to write about this topic, but Barron's beat me to it with a terrific article called "Breaking up Tech" which detailed the anti-trust vulnerability of Big Tech companies. The Barron's article stands in direct contrast to a recent Josh Brown post which postulated that investors are rushing into the technology sector as...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I wrote last weekend that there was a possibility that the stock market may undergo a melt-up, followed by a crash (see Market melt-up and crash?). That scenario may well be occurring, and I sent out an email to subscribers on Monday stating that my trading account had moved from all-cash to...
Bloomberg reported that Donald Trump interviewed John Taylor for the position of Fed chair and "Trump gushed about Taylor after his interview", as "Kevin Warsh has...seen his star fade within the White House". The current list of leading candidates under consider are said to be Jerome Powell, John Taylor, Kevin Warsh, and Janet Yellen. Taylor's...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The intermediate term technical trend remains bullish, it`s hard to argue with the strong momentum that the market has displayed. Ari Wald recently pointed out that the market is experiencing a "good overbought" condition (my words, not his) that has the potential to carry the market much higher. However, the...
Deep in the recesses of my memory from my youth, I recall reading an Ernest Hemingway quote that went something like this: How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly. From The VIX Also Rises The VIX closed at an all-time low last week. Anyone who bought volatility in the last couple of...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
The situation in Catalonia is a mess. Catalan frustrations are understandable. The region is the most prosperous of all in Spain, and shares similar characteristics as norther Italy to the rest of Italy, or North Rhine-Westphia and Bavaria to Germany. Here at Humble Student of the Markets, we try not to take political...
Mid-week market update: Back on July 19, 2017, I wrote about using point and figure charting as a way of projecting an upside SPX target when the index stood at 2473 (see What's the upside target in this rally?). Using different sets of inputs that represent different time horizons and risk tolerances, I arrived at...
As China approaches its 19th Party Congress, there has been no shortage of analysis about what to watch for. Here are a couple of examples worth reading: The meeting that could seal Xi's grip on China (Bloomberg) Beijing's Game of Thrones: Signaling loyalty before the Party Congress (China Focus) Of particular importance is the Reuters...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
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