Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: What should we make of the stock market now that the 10-year Treasury yield has breached the 3% level? Should we pay attention to the JPM Asset Management historical analysis which stated, "When yields are below 5%, rising rates have historically been associated with rising stock prices"? Should we pay...
Remember my post, Opportunity from Brexit turmoil? I suggested on February 22, 2018 that we were seeing a setup for a long trade in UK equities. Brexit political chaos was reaching a crescendo, and there was a chance that we may see another referendum where the Remainers could prevail. Since then, while there is no...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Historically, every recession has been accompanied by an equity bear market. One characteristic of every recession has been a credit crunch. As the economy slows, banks react by tightening their lending criteria, which dries up the availability of credit, and eventually causes a credit crunch. There are a number of ways that investor...
Mid-week market update: Don't get me wrong, I am still bullish, but the stock market rally appear a little extended in the short run and due for a brief period of consolidation. The SPX broke out from its inverse head and shoulders (IHS) pattern this week, cleared its 50 day moving average (dma), and filled...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: As the market bounces around in reaction to the headline of the day, it is important to maintain some perspective and see the underlying trend. Numerous sentiment and technical indicators are pointing towards a bottoming process and a bullish intermediate term outlook. Day-to-day price movements, on the other hand, are hard to...
About three years ago, I outlined China's plan to extend its infrastructure growth without creating more white elephant projects in China (see China's cunning plan to revive growth). Enter the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative to create infrastructure projects in the region. OBOR projects were to financed by the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB),...
I have been a fan of Jim Paulsen for quite some time. The chart below depicts the track record of my major market calls. His work formed the basis for my timely post in May 2015 (see Why I am bearish (and what would change my mind)), which was received with great skepticism at the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: It is encouraging that the stock market held up well in the face of bad news on global trade. Global markets adopted a risk-off tone on the news of Chinese trade retaliation, but the SPX managed to hold a key support level and rally through a downtrend line. Looking over...
As the SPX sold off today and tested the 200 day moving average (dma) while exhibiting positive RSI divergences, a Zen-like thought occurred to me. Is the market testing the 200 dma, or is it testing you? Oversold, but... The stock market is obviously very oversold. My Trifecta Bottom Spotting Model flashed another...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Both my social media feed and the my questions this week have a jittery tone. Will the 200 day moving average (dma) hold as the SPX tests this important support level? What sectors or groups could step up to become the next market leaders if technology stocks falter? Callum Thomas of Topdown...
It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. My experience has shown that overly bullish...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: There have been a number of questions of whether the NASDAQ run is over. Marketwatch reported that Jim Paulsen of Leuthold Group highlighted the vulnerable nature of technology stocks. Paulsen pointed to the Tech/Utilities ratio as a way of showing that Tech is nearly as stretch as it was during the height...
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates a quarter-point this week at their FOMC meeting this week. Even though financial conditions remain at benign levels, there are a number of signs that stress levels are rising during the current tightening cycle. Rising Libor-OIS spread Bloomberg reported that stresses are showing...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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