Mid-week market update: In my last post, I suggested that the stock market is headed for a corrective period, though a short-term bounce was possible this week because of its oversold condition (see Correction ahead: Momentum is dying). The market has staged a remarkable recovery this week by surging to test a key resistance level...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I have been cautious about the US equity market outlook for some time, and the market seems to be finally rolling over this week. The SPX violated an uptrend while failing to rally through resistance. In the short rim, stock prices are likely to experience difficulty advancing. However, such episodes...
avFor several months, the BAML Fund Manager Survey shows that global institutions have been piling into emerging market equities. The purchase of EM equities has been a smart move, as they have been leading the market upwards. However, their time in a leadership role may be coming to an end owing to a series...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Posting will be lighter than usual, I was hit by a nasty flu bug this week and I am barely recovering. It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Two treaties (actually one of them isn't a treaty but an MOU despite Trump's objections to the term) have...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: For the last few weeks, I have been writing about a possible market stall ahead (see Peering into 2020 and beyond). So far, the pullback has yet to materialize, though risk levels continue to rise as the SPX approaches its resistance zone at 2800-2810. Here are some reasons why the...
Recent top-down data out of China has been weak (see How worried should you be about China?), but there are some signs of healing as the latest round of stimulus kicks in. Real-time signs of recovery While Chinese economic statistics can be fudged, real-time indicators are pointing to signs of recovery. Firstly, the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Stock prices have been rallying as it hit a trifecta of good news. First, a compromise seems to have been made on the avoidance of another government shutdown. As well, Trump has been making encouraging noises about a US-China trade agreement. Either both sides could come to an understanding on or before...
In his 2019 State of the Union address, President Trump said he was seeking "real structural change" to China's economy: I have great respect for President Xi, and we are now working on a new trade deal with China. But it must include real, structural change to end unfair trade practices, reduce our chronic trade...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Stock prices began on a sour note this morning (Thursday) on the fears of a European growth slowdown. They slid further when Trump advisor Larry Kudlow appeared on Fox Business News and said that there's "a sizable difference" between the US and China's positions in the trade negotiations. The White House went on to pour...
Mid-week market comment: The SPX has risen roughly 400 handles since the December 24 bottom, and it is approaching its 200 dma. Can the market stage a sustainable rally above this key hurdle? Golden clues For some clues, we can turn to the price of gold. The top panel of the chart below shows...
As new data has crosses my desk, I thought I would write a follow-up to my bullish demographic analysis published two weeks ago (see A different kind of America First). To recap, I observed that America is about to enter another echo demographic boom as the Millennial generation enters its prime earnings years. ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I am publishing the mid-week market update early ahead of the FOMC meeting Wednesday, which can create a high degree of volatility. It has been over a month since the December 24 market bottom, and stock prices have rallied strongly since that bottom. Indeed, price momentum has continued to lift prices even...
I had a number of bullish comments on China in the wake of my last post (see How worried should you be about China?). Jeroen Blokland pointed out that the market is discounting a lot of weakness in the Chinese economy. On the other hand, Caterpillar shares cratered today on jitters of a...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
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