How to buy “smart” Value

Value investing has taken it on the chin in the last decade, as the style has badly lagged the market. Callum Thomas documented how value discount has grown over the last decade. The discount has fallen to levels last seen at the height of the NASDAQ Bubble, when internet related stocks came crashing to earth,...

Trump vs. the Fed

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

A May Jobs Report preview

Tim Duy thinks that Trump is trying to weaken the economic outlook sufficiently so that the Fed has no choice but to cut rates. The markets adopted a risk-off posture as a consequence of Trump`s announcement that he plans to impose tariffs on Mexico. The entire Treasury yield curve, with the exception of the very...

Panic is in the air

I just want to publish a quick note. Panic is in the air. Investors are piling into the safe haven of USTs. The 5-day plunge in 2-year Treasury yield has not been exceeded since the stock market bottom of 2008.     Callum Thomas` weekly (unscientific) Twitter poll is in record net bear territory. Not...

China’s new Long March

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Peak fear, or Cold War 2.0?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Imminent war with Iran?

The headlines look ominous. The US has dispatched a carrier task force to the Persian Gulf, and a second one is due to arrive soon. The State Department ordered the evacuation of all non-essential personnel from Iraq: The U.S. State Department has ordered the departure of non-essential U.S. Government employees from Iraq, both at the...

Tariff Man vs. Dow Man

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Bottoming

Mid-week market update: There are numerous signs that the US equity market is making a short-term tradable bottom. Firstly, the market is washed out and oversold. While oversold markets can become more oversold, we saw some bullish triggers in the form of positive divergences on the hourly SPX chart. Even as the index fell, both...

Why investors should look through trade tensions

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Green shoots, rotten roots?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

A resilient advance

Mid-week market update: It is always a challenge to make a technical market comment on an FOMC announcement day. Market signals are unreliable. The initial market reaction can be deceptive, and any move reversed the next day after some somber second thought. In addition, today is May Day, and a number of foreign markets are...

A stampede you could front run

You may think that institutional money managers run in herds, but that is not necessarily true. Different managers have different mandates that color their views. As well, their geographical base can also create differences in opinions in how their view their world and markets. I analyze institutional sentiment by segmenting them into four distinct groups,...