Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The world is full of surprises. Not only was I beside myself when news of the Bragelina breakup hit the tape, I mistakenly believed that the stock market did not display sufficient fear to form a durable bottom (see the trading comments in Is a recession just around the corner?). Last week,...
Mid-week market update: Did you think that a market bottom was going to be this easy? I got worried on Monday when I received several congratulatory messages and high-fives for my weekend tactical bullish call (see Macro weakness: Just a flesh wound?). That rebound seemed a bit too easy. especially when I saw the latest...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Two weeks ago, I had forecast a minor stock market pullback as the SPX neared 2200 (see The market catches round number-itis). The corrective move hasn't happened and remain in a tight trading range. The one bright spot for the bull case is stock prices haven't fallen in response to bad news,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: On the weekend (see The market's hidden message for the economy, rates and stock prices), I wrote that the short-term outlook was more difficult to call than usual. On one hand, we were seeing broad based strength, which argued for an intermediate term bullish call. On the other hand, Urban Carmel pointed...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The intermediate term outlook that I've been writing about for the past few weeks hasn't really changed (see Get ready for the melt-up and Party like it's 1999, or 1995?). The stock market continues to enjoy a tailwind based on the combination of overly defensive investors and a growth turnaround which is leading...
Mid-week market update: Is this the pullback and correction that I've been anticipating? If so, how far can it go? Be patient. Take a look at this weekly point and figure SPX chart. Is there any doubt that the intermediate term outlook is bullish? While my inner investor remains bullish based on the intermediate...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: After spending over two weeks in a narrow trading range, the SPX broke down out of that range yesterday and tested technical support at the 20 day moving average (dma), which was also the mid-Bollinger Band mark. At the height of the decline, the index had fallen 1% and the market was...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: After the stock market rally off the panic Brexit bottom that took SPX to new all-time highs, the market has been in a tight trading range for the last 10 trading days. As the chart below shows, the 5-day RSI, which is a useful short-term trading indicator,flashed a sell signal several days...
Mid-week market update: As stock prices have recovered strongly off the Brexit panic bottom to make a new all-time high, there are numerous signs that the market is ready to take a breather. In all likelihood, a period of sideways consolidation or minor pullback is on the horizon. Traders in a crowded long...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The SPX has staged an upside breakout to new all-time highs and indicators are looking overbought. Now the key question for traders is whether current conditions represent an extended market that`s ripe for a pullback, or does do these conditions represent a “good” overbought condition that accompanies a momentum surge, which leads to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As I pointed out yesterday (see Brexit: LTCM or Lehman?), my Trifecta Bottom Spotting Model, which has shown an uncanny record of spotting short-term market bottoms. This model flashed an "exacta" buy signal as of Friday's close and it has now flashed a "trifecta" signal based on Monday's close. The model is based on the...
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