Well, my Bremain call didn't go so well (see Positioning for a Bremain result). As I write this, the BBC has called the referendum in favor of Leave by a margin of 52-48. GBPUSD is down about 10% and Asian stock markets are down 2-4%. If you were correctly positioned for this outcome, congratulations, but...
Mid-week market update: What's going on with the VIX Index? The VIX, which measures implied option volatility and a useful measure of "fear", spiked dramatically on Monday. While SPX did fall, the magnitude of the decline didn't match past VIX spikes. It prompted this tweet from Ryan Detrick: Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I like to monitor the option market from a sentiment modeling perspective because, unlike surveys which can swing all over the place, the option market is a forum where people are putting real money on the line. Even as the stock market has been slowly grinding upwards, the option market has been showing...
I present for your consideration the following mystery chart. Would you rate this as a "buy", "hold" or "sell"? Your answer will tell you something about your global macro-economic outlook and the likelihood of an equity bear market in the near future. Scroll down for the answer... ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is...
Mid-week market update: As the US equity market consolidates its gains near resistance and all-time highs, I remain constructive on stock prices for the following five reasons: Momentum is positive Breadth is positive Bullish support from overseas markets Greed is fading, which is supportive of further gains Overbought conditions are fading (ditto) Momentum is positive I...
Mid-week market update: About two weeks ago, my inner trader turned cautious on the US stock market (see my tweet and subsequent post Tactically taking profits in the commodity and reflation trade). I had cited as reasons the weakness from China, the commodity markets and, later, Europe (see Waiting for the storm to pass), which was...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...
Mid-week market update: No, it isn't just a more hawkish Federal Reserve that's spooking the stock market. Stock prices were been falling before Fedspeak and the latest FOMC minutes sounded a more hawkish tone. The SPX staged a successful test of its 2040 neckline support of its head and shoulders pattern today. In fact, today`s action...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Regular readers know that I have been bullish on the commodity and reflation trade (see A possible generational low in oil and energy stocks and The road to a 2016 market top). On the weekend, I postulated three separate short-term scenarios for the stock market (see *Sigh* Another growth scare): The growth...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: In the short run, the SPX has pulled back and appear to be about to test its 50 day moving average (dma) at 2040, while experiencing a positive divergence on RSI-5. The SPX saw a Golden Cross last week - and the right way to trade these signals is to use...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I was wrong. I thought that the stock market was due for a pause and pullback last week (see A possible pause in the uptrend). Instead, it has strengthening on skeptical sentiment and improving breadth. The combination of these conditions are suggestive that the current rally as a lot further to go in...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Let me make myself absolutely clear, I remain intermediate term bullish on US equities based on the points I made in past remarks (see Equities in a macro sweet spot and The trend is your friend (breadth, seasonality and sentiment too)). As the SPX struggles with a technical resistance level at about 2080,...
Mid-week technical update: In my weekend market commentary, I wrote that I was intermediate term bullish on equities (see The trend is your friend (breadth, seasonality and sentiment too)). However, my inner trader was tactically watching the relative performance of the cyclical sectors for signs of market weakness. Now that cyclical stocks have weakened and,...
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