Mid-week market update: Before the war began, I wrote that investors should Buy to the sound of cannons. Historically, investors have been rewarded by buying sudden geopolitically related downdrafts. The corollary is "sell to the sound of trumpets", or news of peace. US equity indices across all market cap bands staged upside breakouts through...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The strength of the rally off the mid-March lows has been breathtaking. Ed Clissold of NDR Research pointed out that the market experienced several breadth thrust buy signals. The % of stocks above their 10 dma surged from under 10% to above 90% in a short time, which is historically bullish. He...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Did the stock market make a meaningful bottom last week? Financial markets had been taking a risk-off tone coming into the week, but when the Powell Fed was slightly more hawkish than expected, the market rallied. The S&P 500 was -14.6% peak-to-trough on an intraday basis in 2022. Ed Clissold of Ned Davis Research pointed...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Some chartists have recently become excited over the commodity outlook. Setting aside the headline-driven rise in oil prices, the long-term chart of industrial metals like copper looks bullish. Copper is tracing out a cup-and-handle pattern breakout that targets strong gains in the years ahead. Moreover, the one-and the two-year rate of change, which is designed...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 put in a potential double bottom when it tested its recent lows while exhibiting a positive RSI divergence. Stock prices rallied on the news of a ceasefire in order to allow civilians to evacuate. Is this a durable bottom? News from the front The market...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Will the S&P 500 hold support or will it break? The index is once again testing the neckline of a potential head and shoulders pattern while exhibiting a minor positive RSI divergence. Here are the bull and bear cases. Sentimental bulls Short-term sentiment models look stretched to the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Trying to spot a bottom here is like trying to catch a falling knife - and at a time of war. Here is what I am watching in order to navigate the turmoil. It's official. We are entering the Biden administration's "trade talks are going very well with China" phase of...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on Monday (see Everything but the kitchen sink) that market sentiment was overly stretched on the downside, "If you are short here, you need a catastrophe within the next 10 days, otherwise, you run the risk of a rip-your-face-off relief rally." The relief rally appeared right on cue on...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Technical analysis can be highly interpretative. Consider, for example, the bull or bear flag, which is a continuation pattern. For the uninitiated, a bull flag is a pullback within a bull trend and the trend is deemed to have continued when the stock or index stages an upside breakout from the flag....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: How far can the market rally run? The S&P 500 weakened in January and bottomed last week. It has mounted a strong relief rally, but it is testomg a key Fibonacci retracement level at about 4590 and a resistance zone at 4600-4630. Is this the start of a V-shaped market...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The stock market has been extremely oversold for the past few days, but one element had been missing for the short-term, namely a sentiment capitulation and wash-out, which may have finally appeared. The latest Business Week cover may be the classic contrarian magazine cover indicator of a developing bottom. ...
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