I pointed out two weeks ago the strong disagreement between technical analysts, who were bullish because of strong price momentum, and macro investors, who were bearish because of concerns over hawkish central bank policy and a slowing growth outlook (see "Price leads fundamentals", or "Don't fight the Fed"?). In the wake of the market reaction...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium is being held this week on August 25-27. Fed officials have fanned out across the land to deliver the message that market expectations of a dovish pivot are misplaced. The question for investors is, "Are market expectations finally rational?" The CME's Fedwatch tool shows the market expects...
Wall Street is full of adages. Technical analysts are fond of, "Price leads fundaments" as a way of dismissing macro and fundamental analysis. But traders are also warned, "Don't fight the Fed". A vast gulf is appearing between bullish technicals and macro concerns. The bulls, who are mainly technicians, point to strong price momentum,...
The mood has changed on Wall Street. The WSJ declared last week that the NASDAQ is back in a bull market. The number of "new bull market" stories have skyrocketed in recent days. Suddenly, chartists on my social media feed are full of "if this index rises to X, or this indicator gets...
Mid-week market update: The markets took on a risk-on tone in the wake of the softer than expected CPI report. It was a useful first step and a possible sign that inflation is peaking, but I am still waiting for the "clear and convincing evidence" that inflation is under control before getting overly excited about...
Mid-week market update: Here we go again. Just when you thought world events were under control, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan raised the geopolitical risk premium. And just as I predicted on the weekend (see In what world is fighting the Fed a good idea?), we've had a cacophony of Fed...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: It's always difficult to make a stock market comment on FOMC announcement day. Equity prices can exhibit strong reversals after the announcement and press conference. As well, it's also not unusual for the move to reverse itself the next day. It's not clear whether the 2023 FOMC pattern of weakness into...
Anticipation is building over the FOMC decision, which is scheduled for this coming Wednesday. Leading up to the meeting, there had been growing speculation over whether the Fed would hike by 75 or 100 bps. Market expectations had been oscillating wildly, but it has now settled into a consensus of 75 bps, followed by a...
The June CPI and PPI reports both came in higher than expectations. The good news is core CPI is decelerating. The bad news is both core sticky price CPI and Owners' Equivalent Rent, which is about one-third of core CPI, are rising rapidly. These readings confirm the market's expectations that the Fed will continue...
One of the key risks to the stock market is earnings expectations. As recession risk rises, it has been unusual to see forward 12-month EPS estimates continue to rise. The latest update finally shows that earnings expectations are beginning to stall. S&P 500 estimates are flat for the week, up a miniscule 0.01, while small-cap...
Even before the FOMC meeting and in a survey period that ended on June 10, 2022, which was the day of the hot May CPI print, the respondents to the BoA Global Fund Manager Survey showed a high degree of anxiety about a recession. Here is the bad news. At the post-FOMC meeting...
Mid-week market update: Can the stock market follow the script for past FOMC meetings in 2022? In each of the cases this year, the market weakened ahead of the meeting and rallied afterwards. The only deviation from the script occurred at the May FOMC meeting, when stock prices fell to new lows after a post-meeting...
I know that Friday's CPI print was ugly, but it seems to have sparked a "correlations converging to 1" liquidation panic where everything is getting sold today. The good news is such panics usually don't last long. Several readers highlighted analysis from Rob Hanna of Quantifiable Edges of a rare Inverse Zweig Breadth Thrust....
I have pointed out before that the last time the 10-year Treasury yield was at these levels, the S&P 500 was trading at a forward P/E of 14-16. The current forward P/E is 16.8, which is slightly above that range. In order for stock prices to rise, at least one of two things has to...
Mid-week market update: As the S&P 500 consolidates its gains in a narrow range after its surge last week, it has been a frustrating time for both bulls and bears. As investors wait for either the breakout or breakdown from the range, here are the bull and bear cases. A mixed...
The recent price surge in late May off the bottom produced a flurry of excitement among technical analysts. Extreme price momentum is known as a breadth thrust in chartist circles. Depending on the magnitude of the breadth thrust, they are often signals of new bull markets. Marty Zweig detailed what became known as the...
Now that the S&P 500 has started to turn up after bouncing off a head & shoulders downside target. Green shoots are starting to appear for the bulls, is it time for investors to buy stocks and bottom fish? Rising recession fears Let's begin with why the market weakened. Recession fears were...
Legendary investor John Templeton once said: Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell. Where are we in the market cycle? From a long-term...
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