I have some good news and bad news. The good news is the option market isn't as concerned about the prospect of a contested election. The chart below shows the history of the term structure of at-the-money implied volatility (IV). The latest readings shows that IV spikes just after Election Day, and deflates slowly afterward....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
The global economy seems to be setting up for a strong recovery. We are seeing a combination of easy monetary policy, slimmed-down supply chains, and a rebound in consumer confidence. The cyclical and reflation trade is becoming the consensus view. However, there may still be time to board that train. Futures positioning in...
Mid-week market update: One of the key indicators I have been monitoring for the health of the market is the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), which is a proxy for large-cap technology stocks. So far, the NDX has been testing an important rising relative uptrend. If the relative uptrend were to decisively break down, it...
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has set a Tuesday deadline for an agreement for a coronavirus stimulus package before the election. Recent data begs the question of whether more stimulus is even needed. Last Friday's retail sales print was astonishingly strong and beat market expectations. While retail sales statistics are notoriously noisy, September retail sales...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
With the US election just over two weeks away, it's time to look past the election and focus on how the economy and markets are likely to behave. Barry Ritholz correctly advised investors in a recent post to check their political beliefs at the door when analyzing markets. Stock prices have done slightly better under...
Mid-week market update: I discovered an error in my last publication (see A Momentum Renaissance). The market did not achieve a Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal last Thursday as I previously indicated, though it was very close. As a reminder, the Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal is triggered when the ZBT Indicator moves from an...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
One of the investment puzzles of 2020 is the stock market's behavior. In the face of the worst global economic downturn since the Great Depression, why haven't stock prices fallen further? Investors saw a brief panic in February and March, and the S&P 500 has recovered and even made an all-time high in early September....
Mid-week market update: As President Trump left the hospital and returned to the White House, the message from his doctors was he was doing fine, but he was not "out of the woods". Numerous outside physicians have made the point that COVID-19 is nothing like the flu. Flu symptoms hit the patient and eventually dissipate...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
The world is changing, but it changed even before Trump's COVID-19 news. In the past few weeks, a couple of key macro trends have reversed themselves. The US Dollar, which large speculators had accumulated a crowded short position, stopped falling and began to turn up. In addition, inflation expectations, as measured by the...
Mid-week market update: The Presidential Debate last night was painful to watch. After the debate, different broadcasters conducted instant polls of who won the debate. The CNN poll showed that 60% believed that Biden had won, and 29% thought that Trump had won. The Fox poll showed that 60% thought Trump had won, and 39%...
There was some excitement last week when SentimenTrader wrote about the massive aggregate short by large speculators and CTA trend followers in equity futures. Conventional contrarian analysis would be bearish, but this is a lesson for traders and investors to look beneath the surface before jumping to conclusions. Mitigating conditions Here are...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
RealMoney columnist Helene Meisler asked rhetorically in an article where her readers thought we are in the equity sentiment cycle. She concluded that the market is in the "subtle warning" phase, though she would allow that the "overt warning" phase was also possible. I agree. This retreat is acting like the start of a...
Mid-week market update: I have some good news and bad news. The good news is the performance of the NASDAQ 100, the market leadership, has stabilized. The relative performance of the NASDAQ 100 against the S&P 500 successfully tested a rising relative trend line, and the relative uptrend is still intact. The bad...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
There is growing evidence that the stock market is undergoing a rotation from large cap technology to cyclical and reflation stocks. Exhibit A is the market action of the tech heavy NASDAQ 100, which violated a key rising channel and also violated its 50 day moving average (dma). By contrast, the broader S&P 500 is...
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