Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Both my social media feed and the my questions this week have a jittery tone. Will the 200 day moving average (dma) hold as the SPX tests this important support level? What sectors or groups could step up to become the next market leaders if technology stocks falter? Callum Thomas of Topdown...
It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. My experience has shown that overly bullish...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: There have been a number of questions of whether the NASDAQ run is over. Marketwatch reported that Jim Paulsen of Leuthold Group highlighted the vulnerable nature of technology stocks. Paulsen pointed to the Tech/Utilities ratio as a way of showing that Tech is nearly as stretch as it was during the height...
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates a quarter-point this week at their FOMC meeting this week. Even though financial conditions remain at benign levels, there are a number of signs that stress levels are rising during the current tightening cycle. Rising Libor-OIS spread Bloomberg reported that stresses are showing...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Last weekend, I wrote that while I was intermediate term bullish, I expected some equity market weakness early in the week. The hourly RSI-5 had exceeded 90, which is an extremely overbought reading, which was not sustainable. Even during the January melt-up, such episodes resolved themselves with either a pullback or sideways...
In the wake of my last post about whether USD assets and Treasury paper would remain safe haven and diversifiers in the next global downturn (see Will diversified portfolios be doomed in the next recession), I received a number of questions as to what investors should avoid. There is an obvious answer to that question....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
This week saw the two examples of the triumph of populism. The Italian election saw the rise the Five Star Movement and Lega Nord, otherwise known as the Northern League. Both are Euroskeptic parties and Lega Nord has an anti-immigrant bias. Meanwhile in Washington, the news of the steel and aluminum tariffs put Trump's America...
Mid-week market update: You can tell a lot about the short-term character of a market by the way it reacts to news. When the news of Gary Cohn's resignation hit the tape after the close on Tuesday, ES futures cratered down over -1%. By the market closed Wednesday, SPX had traced out a bullish reversal...
This Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February Employment Report. The consensus headline Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figure is 200K, and consensus monthly change in Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) is 0.2%. Johnny Bo Jakobsen observed that forecasts based on ISM employment points to a strengthening job market. Based on this analysis, I am...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Just when the V-shaped bottom was becoming evident, something comes along and derails that train. The SPX decisively blasted through its 61.8% retracement resistance levels on Monday, but saw a bearish outside reversal day Tuesday, and the market continued to weaken. After the panic bottom in February, it appears that the...
The announcement was not totally unexpected, according to the BBC, but it did come as a shock. China's Communist Party announced the Central Committee proposed that the term of the President and Vice President may serve beyond their 10-year terms: The Communist Party of China Central Committee proposed to remove the expression that the President...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
There has been much hand wringing over the Brexit process. Deutsche Welle reported that Angela Merkel stated that Brexit would leave a very challenging €12 billion hole in the 2021-27 EU budget. Across the English Channel, Politico reported that Brexit Secretary David Davis assured businesses that "the UK will not become a ‘Mad Max-style world...
Mid-week market update: After much indecision, the SPX paused at its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The 50 day moving average (dma) which could have acted as support did not hold. I had also previously identified a possible Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal setup. Unless the market really surges in the next two days,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
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