Mark Hulbert recently published an ominous warning at MarketWatch about excessive valuation in the U.S. equity market. Most valuation ratios are in the top 90% since 2000 and “as overvalued as it was at the market top on Jan. 3, 2022”. How worried should you be? Hulbert admitted in his article that...
Should you be a value or growth investor? The accompanying chart shows the historical record. In the last 20 years, growth has handily beaten value. The U.S. value/growth track record closely tracked the international developed value/growth record until 2023, when AI-related plays in the U.S. went on a tear. Such stocks weren’t readily available...
Well-known value investor Jeremy Grantham recently penned an essay titled, “The Great Paradox of the U.S. Market”, in which he warned, “Prices reflect near perfection yet today’s world is particularly imperfect and dangerous”. In particular, he sounded the alarm over the bubble in AI stocks and cited the Gartner Hype Cycle as the main...
How would you feel about a star value manager with the track record shown in the chart below. While he beat the market in the wake of the dot-com bubble, he has only matched the performance of the S&P 500 since 2011. To be sure, he did beat his style benchmark (second panel). The...
In the past week, several readers have asked whether it's too late to be buying financials, value, and other cyclical stocks. In reply, I highlighted the recent Mark Hulbert column, "Value stocks now are beating growth by 10 points, but the easy money might be behind us", namely that the value/growth reversal may not necessarily have...
What's wrong with value stocks? The accompanying chart shows the relative performance of the Russell 1000 Value to Russell 1000 Growth Index ratio (bottom panel, solid line) and the closely correlated S&P 600 to NASDAQ 100 (bottom panel, dotted line). When the dot-com mania peaked in 2000, value stocks initially rocketed upward relative to growth...
As the infrastructure and budget bills make their way through Congress, I was surprised to see that the latest BoA Global Fund Manager Survey did not mention a corporate tax increase as a key risk to the S&P 500. The Biden tax proposals have been well telegraphed and most of the details have...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
One of my principal tools of market analysis is the use of trend-following techniques to spot changes in macro conditions. My models are seeing some early green shoots in the value and reflation trade. It began with the stronger than expected July Jobs Report. The subsequent tame core CPI print also helped to reinforce the...
It is astonishing to see the market narrative shift in the space of only a few months from "inflation is coming" to a growth scare. In late March, the 10-year Treasury yield topped at over 1.7% and the 2s10s yield curve was steepening. Today, the 10-year has decisively broken support and the yield curve is...
It's been over a year since the stock market bottom at the height of the Pandemic Panic. The market consensus has evolved from an early cycle recovery to a mid-cycle expansion, as evidenced by the BoA Global Fund Manager Survey. What that means for investors? Here are the key questions we focus on:...
Remember when I called for a bond market rally (see What a bond market rally could mean for your investments). The 10-year Treasury yield broke support last week and shrugged off a hot CPI print. Is the bond market tempting FAIT, or the Fed's Flexible Average Inflation Targeting framework? Here are some of...
The trader Alex Barrow recently observed that the sentiment backdrop is setting up for a bond market rally. While Barron's is not as reliable as The Economist as a contrarian magazine cover indicator, the stars appear to be lining up for a counter-trend rally in bond prices. Here is what a potential bond...
Recently, a growing narrative in the market is arguing for a pause in the reflation trade for the following reasons: Both the cyclically sensitive copper/gold and base metal/gold ratios have moved sideways. The 10-year Treasury yield peaked out in March and it is now falling, which is an indication of the bond market's belief...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset...
In light of last week's partial NASDAQ reversal, I had a number of discussions with readers about whether the reflation trade has become overly consensus and crowded. To be sure, bond prices have become wildly oversold while the cyclically sensitive copper/gold ratio has surged upward and appears extended. Is the reflation trade, which...
Mid-week market update: If you hadn't known that it was FOMC day, you would have looked at the closing market diary and shrugged. The S&P 500 closed only +0.3% on the day. Beneath the surface, however, a lot has been going on in the past few weeks. Analysts who try to call the direction...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
The fiscal and monetary authorities of the developed world are engaged in a great macroeconomic experiment. Governments are spending enormous sums to combat the recessionary effects of the pandemic and central banks are allowing monetary policy to stay loose in order to accommodate the fiscal stimulus. Eventually, inflation and inflation expectations are bound to rise....
Mid-week market update: The rebound in the NASDAQ and growth stocks was not a surprise. Value outperformed growth by the most on record last week - and that includes the dot-com crash that began in 2000. Make no mistake. Growth stocks are experiencing an unsustainable dead cat bounce. Growth is oversold...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
