Mid-week market update: Charles Dow once characterized the stock market`s price movement as being composed of tides, waves, and ripples. We can see a mini version of this thesis by the market's action in the past week. The major indices had staged an upside breakout through a downtrend and sentiment had turned bullish. This...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: In my last mid-week market update (see Still choppy, still consolidating), I highlighted the weekly (unscientific) sentiment survey conducted by Callum Thomas. The poll showed fundamentally oriented investors to be very bullish, while technical survey was bearish. I suggested at the time that one of the signs that the sideways consolidation may...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Stock prices are still consolidating sideways. The technical pattern could either be described as range-bound, or as a triangle. The market tested the bottom of the triangle this week, but support held. The market indecision could be traced to the continued disagreement between fundamental and technical investors. Several weeks ago, I...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: What should we make of the stock market now that the 10-year Treasury yield has breached the 3% level? Should we pay attention to the JPM Asset Management historical analysis which stated, "When yields are below 5%, rising rates have historically been associated with rising stock prices"? Should we pay...
Remember my post, Opportunity from Brexit turmoil? I suggested on February 22, 2018 that we were seeing a setup for a long trade in UK equities. Brexit political chaos was reaching a crescendo, and there was a chance that we may see another referendum where the Remainers could prevail. Since then, while there is no...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Don't get me wrong, I am still bullish, but the stock market rally appear a little extended in the short run and due for a brief period of consolidation. The SPX broke out from its inverse head and shoulders (IHS) pattern this week, cleared its 50 day moving average (dma), and filled...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: As the market bounces around in reaction to the headline of the day, it is important to maintain some perspective and see the underlying trend. Numerous sentiment and technical indicators are pointing towards a bottoming process and a bullish intermediate term outlook. Day-to-day price movements, on the other hand, are hard to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: It is encouraging that the stock market held up well in the face of bad news on global trade. Global markets adopted a risk-off tone on the news of Chinese trade retaliation, but the SPX managed to hold a key support level and rally through a downtrend line. Looking over...
As the SPX sold off today and tested the 200 day moving average (dma) while exhibiting positive RSI divergences, a Zen-like thought occurred to me. Is the market testing the 200 dma, or is it testing you? Oversold, but... The stock market is obviously very oversold. My Trifecta Bottom Spotting Model flashed another...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Both my social media feed and the my questions this week have a jittery tone. Will the 200 day moving average (dma) hold as the SPX tests this important support level? What sectors or groups could step up to become the next market leaders if technology stocks falter? Callum Thomas of Topdown...
Mid-week market update: There have been a number of questions of whether the NASDAQ run is over. Marketwatch reported that Jim Paulsen of Leuthold Group highlighted the vulnerable nature of technology stocks. Paulsen pointed to the Tech/Utilities ratio as a way of showing that Tech is nearly as stretch as it was during the height...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Last weekend, I wrote that while I was intermediate term bullish, I expected some equity market weakness early in the week. The hourly RSI-5 had exceeded 90, which is an extremely overbought reading, which was not sustainable. Even during the January melt-up, such episodes resolved themselves with either a pullback or sideways...
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