Mid-week market update: The last day of the Santa Claus rally window closed yesterday, and Santa has returned to the North Pole. But he left one present today in the form of an intra-day all-time high for all the good boys and girls who ever doubted him. Tactically, today's rally may be the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: Not much has changed since my last post, so I just have a brief update during a thin and holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 remains in a shallow upward channel while flashing a series of “good overbought” conditions during a seasonally positive period for equities. The index staged an upside breakout at...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: In my last post (see Trading the pre-Christmas panic), I pointed out that the VIX Index had spiked above its upper Bollinger Band, which is an indication of an oversold market. In the past year, stock prices have usually stabilized and rallied after such signals (blue vertical line). The only major exception...
What should traders make of the pre-Christmas panic today? S&P 500 futures were down as much as -2.5% overnight. The market opened up down about -1.5%, but recovered most of its losses to a -0.4% retreat today. More importantly, the bulls were able to hold support at 3650. The VIX Index surged above...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: It's difficult to make a coherent technical analysis comment on the day of an FOMC meeting, but the stock market remains in a holding pattern. While the S&P 500 remains in an uptrend (blue line), it has been consolidating sideways since late November and early December. Until we see either...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
In late 2017, the stock market melted up in a FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) stampede as enthusiasm about the Trump tax cuts gripped investor psychology. The market corrected in early 2018 and rose steadily into October, though the advance could not be characterized as a melt-up. In late 2019, the market staged a similar...
Mid-week market update: I highlighted this chart as a possible warning on the weekend (see Melt-up, or meltdown?). In the past, high levels of correlation between the S&P 500 and VVIX, the volatility of the VIX, has generally led to market stalls. In addition, high correlations between the S&P 500 and the VIX Index has...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: As the S&P 500 pushed to another fresh high, more cracks were appearing in the market internals, indicating that it may be time for the rally to take a pause. Negative divergences, such as the 5-day RSI and a trend of falling NYSE new 52-week highs, are warning signs for the near-term...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: (I am publishing my mid-week market update a day early owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday shortened week) Should the bulls be worried? The Greed and Fear Index has surged to 88, which represents a warning of excessive bullishness. As well, Willie Delwiche pointed out that his survey of...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
I hope that I haven't offended the market gods. Just after my bullish call for a cyclical recovery (see Everything you need to know about the Great Rotation but were afraid to ask), a number of contrary data points have appeared to cast doubt on the reflation thesis. The markets were jolted by the...
Mid-week market update: In case you missed it, the Dow Theory flashed a definitive buy signal. Both the Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages made all-time highs on Monday. This is the granddaddy of all technical analysis systems, and investors should sit up and pay attention. Moreover, the Dow may be tracing out a series...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: It is ironic that four weeks ago today, I pointed out that the market missed flashing a rare Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal by one day (see Trading the breadth thrust). Market breadth, as measured by the ZBT Indicator, has to rise from an oversold level of 0.40 to an overbought reading...
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