Equities in a macro sweet spot

Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...

All aboard the reflation train, but beware of derailments

Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...

Bottomed, but wait for a re-test of the lows

Model signal summary Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities Trend Model signal: Risk-off Trading model: Bullish The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on...

Bullish or bearish? What’s your time horizon?

Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Risk-off Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My...

Buy! Blood is the streets!

Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Risk-off Trading model: Bullish (upgrade) The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"...

The 2016 macro surprise that no one talks about

Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Neutral Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My...

Do you believe in Santa Claus?

Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Neutral Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My inner...

A major bear market in 2016?

As stock prices have recently weakened, I have received some comments regarding the start of a bear market in 2016. To put it into context, bear markets start for one of three major fundamental reasons: War or revolution leading to a permanent loss of capital (think Confederate war bonds, or German panzers smashing through French lines on...

2016: Time to get bearish and go “Zero Hedge”?

Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Neutral Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My inner...

A surprise from rotational analysis

One of my tools in my market analysis toolbox is leadership analysis. In particular, I found that in bull phases, it pays to buy the market leaders (see Momentum + Bull market = Chocolate + Peanut butter). I was playing around with Relative Rotation Graphs, or RRG, the other day and what I found was a surprise....